自实现预言、拟非遍历性与财富不等式
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity and Wealth Inequality
摘要：
我们构建了一个交换经济模型，在该模型中，代理人根据可观察到的信号交易资产，其概率取决于公众舆论。我们模型中的代理偶尔会被替换，每个人都会根据观察到的结果更新信念。我们发现，所观察到的信号的分布描述了一个准非遍历过程，人们继续不同意彼此永远。这些分歧产生了巨大的财富不平等，这是由财富动态的乘法性质引起的，这种性质使成功的大胆押注变得有利可图。
英文摘要：
We construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-non-ergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics which make successful bold bets highly profitable.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
