In the environment of fair lending laws and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the ability to explain a model's prediction is of paramount importance. High quality explanations are the first step in assessing fairness. Counterfactuals are valuable tools for explainability. They provide actionable, comprehensible explanations for the individual who is subject to decisions made from the prediction. It is important to find a baseline for producing them. We propose a simple method for generating counterfactuals by using gradient descent to search in the latent space of an autoencoder and benchmark our method against approaches that search for counterfactuals in feature space. Additionally, we implement metrics to concretely evaluate the quality of the counterfactuals. We show that latent space counterfactual generation strikes a balance between the speed of basic feature gradient descent methods and the sparseness and authenticity of counterfactuals generated by more complex feature space oriented techniques.
Transparency is an essential requirement of machine learning based decision making systems that are deployed in real world. Often, transparency of a given system is achieved by providing explanations of the behavior and predictions of the given system. Counterfactual explanations are a prominent instance of particular intuitive explanations of decision making systems. While a lot of different methods for computing counterfactual explanations exist, only very few work (apart from work from the causality domain) considers feature dependencies as well as plausibility which might limit the set of …
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU)（彼得大帝圣彼得堡理工大学）
A method for counterfactual explanation of machine learning survival models is proposed. One of the difficulties of solving the counterfactual explanation problem is that the classes of examples are implicitly defined through outcomes of a machine learning survival model in the form of survival functions. A condition that establishes the difference between survival functions of the original example and the counterfactual is introduced. This condition is based on using a distance between mean times to event. It is shown that the counterfactual explanation problem can be reduced to a standard co…
Counterfactual explanations are emerging as an attractive option for providing recourse to individuals adversely impacted by algorithmic decisions. As they are deployed in critical applications (e.g. law enforcement, financial lending), it becomes important to ensure that we clearly understand the vulnerabilities of these methods and find ways to address them. However, there is little understanding of the vulnerabilities and shortcomings of counterfactual explanations. In this work, we introduce the first framework that describes the vulnerabilities of counterfactual explanations and shows how…
Simon Fraser University（西蒙弗雷泽大学）；McMaster University（麦克马斯特大学）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test is popularly used in many applications, such as anomaly detection, astronomy, database security and AI systems. One challenge remained untouched is how we can obtain an explanation on why a test set fails the KS test. In this paper, we tackle the problem of producing counterfactual explanations for test data failing the KS test. Concept-wise, we propose the notion of most comprehensible counterfactual explanations, which accommodates both the KS test data and the user domain knowledge in producing explanations. Computation-wise, we develop an efficient algorith…
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Amsterdam Business School（阿姆斯特丹商学院）
To increase the adoption of counterfactual explanations in practice, several criteria that these should adhere to have been put forward in the literature. We propose counterfactual explanations using optimization with constraint learning (CE-OCL), a generic and flexible approach that addresses all these criteria and allows room for further extensions. Specifically, we discuss how we can leverage an optimization with constraint learning framework for the generation of counterfactual explanations, and how components of this framework readily map to the criteria. We also propose two novel modelin…
University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；Bytedance AI Lab（字节跳动人工智能实验室）；J.P. Morgan AI Research（摩根大通人工智能研究院）
Counterfactual explanations promote explainability in machine learning models by answering the question "how should an input instance be perturbed to obtain a desired predicted label?". The comparison of this instance before and after perturbation can enhance human interpretation. Most existing studies on counterfactual explanations are limited in tabular data or image data. In this work, we study the problem of counterfactual explanation generation on graphs. A few studies have explored counterfactual explanations on graphs, but many challenges of this problem are still not well-addressed: 1)…
University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Curtin University（科廷大学）
Counterfactual explanation is one branch of interpretable machine learning that produces a perturbation sample to change the model's original decision. The generated samples can act as a recommendation for end-users to achieve their desired outputs. Most of the current counterfactual explanation approaches are the gradient-based method, which can only optimize the differentiable loss functions with continuous variables. Accordingly, the gradient-free methods are proposed to handle the categorical variables, which however have several major limitations: 1) causal relationships among features ar…
Counterfactual explanations represent the minimal change to a data sample that alters its predicted classification, typically from an unfavorable initial class to a desired target class. Counterfactuals help answer questions such as "what needs to change for this application to get accepted for a loan?". A number of recently proposed approaches to counterfactual generation give varying definitions of "plausible" counterfactuals and methods to generate them. However, many of these methods are computationally intensive and provide unconvincing explanations. Here we introduce SharpShooter, a meth…
We consider counterfactual explanations, the problem of minimally adjusting features in a source input instance so that it is classified as a target class under a given classifier. This has become a topic of recent interest as a way to query a trained model and suggest possible actions to overturn its decision. Mathematically, the problem is formally equivalent to that of finding adversarial examples, which also has attracted significant attention recently. Most work on either counterfactual explanations or adversarial examples has focused on differentiable classifiers, such as neural nets. We…
University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Amira Learning（Amira学习）；CognitiveScale（认知规模）
Counterfactual explanations have substantially increased in popularity in the past few years as a useful human-centric way of understanding individual black-box model predictions. While several properties desired of high-quality counterfactuals have been identified in the literature, three crucial concerns: the speed of explanation generation, robustness/sensitivity and succinctness of explanations (sparsity) have been relatively unexplored. In this paper, we present FASTER-CE: a novel set of algorithms to generate fast, sparse, and robust counterfactual explanations. The key idea is to effici…
Physics-Guided Counterfactual Explanations for Large-Scale Multivariate Time Series: Application in Scalable and Interpretable SEP Event Prediction
Dept. of Computer Science Georgia State University Atlanta, GA, USA（计算机科学系 佐治亚州立大学）；Dept. of Computer Science California State University Fullerton, CA, USA（计算机科学系 加州州立大学Fullerton分校）
University of Tübingen（蒂宾根大学）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）
As machine learning (ML) models become more widely deployed in high-stakes applications, counterfactual explanations have emerged as key tools for providing actionable model explanations in practice. Despite the growing popularity of counterfactual explanations, a deeper understanding of these explanations is still lacking. In this work, we systematically analyze counterfactual explanations through the lens of adversarial examples. We do so by formalizing the similarities between popular counterfactual explanation and adversarial example generation methods identifying conditions when they are …
Transparency is a fundamental requirement for decision making systems when these should be deployed in the real world. It is usually achieved by providing explanations of the system's behavior. A prominent and intuitive type of explanations are counterfactual explanations. Counterfactual explanations explain a behavior to the user by proposing actions -- as changes to the input -- that would cause a different (specified) behavior of the system. However, such explanation methods can be unstable with respect to small changes to the input -- i.e. even a small change in the input can lead to huge …
Counterfactual explanations for machine learning models are used to find minimal interventions to the feature values such that the model changes the prediction to a different output or a target output. A valid counterfactual explanation should have likely feature values. Here, we address the challenge of generating counterfactual explanations that lie in the same data distribution as that of the training data and more importantly, they belong to the target class distribution. This requirement has been addressed through the incorporation of auto-encoder reconstruction loss in the counterfactual…
In recent years, there has been an explosion of AI research on counterfactual explanations as a solution to the problem of eXplainable AI (XAI). These explanations seem to offer technical, psychological and legal benefits over other explanation techniques. We survey 100 distinct counterfactual explanation methods reported in the literature. This survey addresses the extent to which these methods have been adequately evaluated, both psychologically and computationally, and quantifies the shortfalls occurring. For instance, only 21% of these methods have been user tested. Five key deficits in th…
Recent papers in explainable AI have made a compelling case for counterfactual modes of explanation. While counterfactual explanations appear to be extremely effective in some instances, they are formally equivalent to adversarial examples. This presents an apparent paradox for explainability researchers: if these two procedures are formally equivalent, what accounts for the explanatory divide apparent between counterfactual explanations and adversarial examples? We resolve this paradox by placing emphasis back on the semantics of counterfactual expressions. Producing satisfactory explanations…
University College Dublin（都柏林大学学院）；Accenture Labs（埃森哲实验室）；Insight Centre for Data Analytics（洞察数据分析中心）；VistaMilk SFI Research Centre（VistaMilk SFI研究中心）
Counterfactual explanations are an increasingly popular form of post hoc explanation due to their (i) applicability across problem domains, (ii) proposed legal compliance (e.g., with GDPR), and (iii) reliance on the contrastive nature of human explanation. Although counterfactual explanations are normally used to explain individual predictive-instances, we explore a novel use case in which groups of similar instances are explained in a collective fashion using ``group counterfactuals'' (e.g., to highlight a repeating pattern of illness in a group of patients). These group counterfactuals meet …
Improving understanding and trust in AI: How users benefit from interval-based counterfactual explanations
Department of Bioengineering, Imperial College London（伦敦帝国理工学院生物工程系）；Institute of Artificial and Human Intelligence, University of Bayreuth（拜罗伊特大学人工智能与人类智能研究所）
paluno - The Ruhr Institute for Software Technology（帕鲁诺——鲁尔软件技术研究所）
Predictive business process monitoring increasingly leverages sophisticated prediction models. Although sophisticated models achieve consistently higher prediction accuracy than simple models, one major drawback is their lack of interpretability, which limits their adoption in practice. We thus see growing interest in explainable predictive business process monitoring, which aims to increase the interpretability of prediction models. Existing solutions focus on giving factual explanations.While factual explanations can be helpful, humans typically do not ask why a particular prediction was mad…
Black-box machine learning models are being used in more and more high-stakes domains, which creates a growing need for Explainable AI (XAI). Unfortunately, the use of XAI in machine learning introduces new privacy risks, which currently remain largely unnoticed. We introduce the explanation linkage attack, which can occur when deploying instance-based strategies to find counterfactual explanations. To counter such an attack, we propose k-anonymous counterfactual explanations and introduce pureness as a new metric to evaluate the validity of these k-anonymous counterfactual explanations. Our r…
Ikerlan Technology Research Centre（伊克尔兰技术研究中心）；Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)（巴斯克研究与技术联盟）；Mondragon University（蒙德拉贡大学）
Deep Learning has become a very valuable tool in different fields, and no one doubts the learning capacity of these models. Nevertheless, since Deep Learning models are often seen as black boxes due to their lack of interpretability, there is a general mistrust in their decision-making process. To find a balance between effectiveness and interpretability, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is gaining popularity in recent years, and some of the methods within this area are used to generate counterfactual explanations. The process of generating these explanations generally consists of sol…
University College Dublin（都柏林大学）；Insight Centre for Data Analytics（洞察数据分析中心）；VistaMilk SFI Research Centre（VistaMilk科学基金会爱尔兰研究中心）
Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a popular solution for the eXplainable AI (XAI) problem of elucidating the predictions of black-box deep-learning systems due to their psychological validity, flexibility across problem domains and proposed legal compliance. While over 100 counterfactual methods exist, claiming to generate plausible explanations akin to those preferred by people, few have actually been tested on users ($\sim7\%$). So, the psychological validity of these counterfactual algorithms for effective XAI for image data is not established. This issue is addressed here using a…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Relational AI（Relational AI公司）
Sophisticated machine models are increasingly used for high-stakes decisions in everyday life. There is an urgent need to develop effective explanation techniques for such automated decisions. Rule-Based Explanations have been proposed for high-stake decisions like loan applications, because they increase the users' trust in the decision. However, rule-based explanations are very inefficient to compute, and existing systems sacrifice their quality in order to achieve reasonable performance. We propose a novel approach to compute rule-based explanations, by using a different type of explanation…
Insight SFI Centre for Data Analytics（Insight SFI数据分析中心）；VistaMilk SFI Research Centre（VistaMilk SFI研究中心）；University College Dublin（都柏林大学）
Counterfactual explanations provide a potentially significant solution to the Explainable AI (XAI) problem, but good, native counterfactuals have been shown to rarely occur in most datasets. Hence, the most popular methods generate synthetic counterfactuals using blind perturbation. However, such methods have several shortcomings: the resulting counterfactuals (i) may not be valid data-points (they often use features that do not naturally occur), (ii) may lack the sparsity of good counterfactuals (if they modify too many features), and (iii) may lack diversity (if the generated counterfactuals…
The increasing deployment of machine learning as well as legal regulations such as EU's GDPR cause a need for user-friendly explanations of decisions proposed by machine learning models. Counterfactual explanations are considered as one of the most popular techniques to explain a specific decision of a model. While the computation of "arbitrary" counterfactual explanations is well studied, it is still an open research problem how to efficiently compute plausible and feasible counterfactual explanations. We build upon recent work and propose and study a formal definition of plausible counterfac…
Microsoft Research India（微软印度研究院）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）
Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual explanations should satisfy two properties: feasibility of the counterfactual actions given user context and constraints, and diversity among the counterfactuals presented. To this end, we propose a framework for generating and evaluating a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on deter…
Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are methods for generating an alternative scenario that produces a different desirable outcome. For example, if a student is predicted to fail a course, then counterfactual explanations can provide the student with alternate ways so that they would be predicted to pass. The applications are many. However, CEs are currently generated from machine learning models that do not necessarily take into account the true causal structure in the data. By doing this, bias can be introduced into the CE quantities. I propose in this study to test the CEs using Judea Pearl's…
University of Tübingen（图宾根大学）；CarePay International（CarePay国际公司）
Counterfactual explanations provide means for prescriptive model explanations by suggesting actionable feature changes (e.g., increase income) that allow individuals to achieve favorable outcomes in the future (e.g., insurance approval). Choosing an appropriate method is a crucial aspect for meaningful counterfactual explanations. As documented in recent reviews, there exists a quickly growing literature with available methods. Yet, in the absence of widely available opensource implementations, the decision in favor of certain models is primarily based on what is readily available. Going forwa…
Counterfactual explanations, which deal with "why not?" scenarios, can provide insightful explanations to an AI agent's behavior. In this work, we focus on generating counterfactual explanations for deep reinforcement learning (RL) agents which operate in visual input environments like Atari. We introduce counterfactual state explanations, a novel example-based approach to counterfactual explanations based on generative deep learning. Specifically, a counterfactual state illustrates what minimal change is needed to an Atari game image such that the agent chooses a different action. We also eva…
Machine learning is increasingly applied in high-stakes decision making that directly affect people's lives, and this leads to an increased demand for systems to explain their decisions. Explanations often take the form of counterfactuals, which consists of conveying to the end user what she/he needs to change in order to improve the outcome. Computing counterfactual explanations is challenging, because of the inherent tension between a rich semantics of the domain, and the need for real time response. In this paper we present GeCo, the first system that can compute plausible and feasible coun…
Counterfactual explanations have shown promising results as a post-hoc framework to make image classifiers more explainable. In this paper, we propose DiME, a method allowing the generation of counterfactual images using the recent diffusion models. By leveraging the guided generative diffusion process, our proposed methodology shows how to use the gradients of the target classifier to generate counterfactual explanations of input instances. Further, we analyze current approaches to evaluate spurious correlations and extend the evaluation measurements by proposing a new metric: Correlation Dif…
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Radboud University（拉德堡德大学）
Model interpretability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic decisions have on humans. Counterfactual explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain decisions, but also how these decisions can be changed. We frame the problem of finding counterfactual explanations as a gradient-based optimization task and extend previous work that could only be applied to differentiable models. In order to accommodate non-differentiable models such as tree ensembles, we use probabilistic model approximations in the opti…
Many existing methods of counterfactual explanations ignore the intrinsic relationships between data attributes and thus fail to generate realistic counterfactuals. Moreover, the existing models that account for relationships require domain knowledge, which limits their applicability in complex real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to realistic counterfactual explanations that preserve the relationships and minimise experts' interventions. The model directly learns the relationships by a variational auto-encoder with minimal domain knowledge and then learns to per…
University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Curtin University（科廷大学）
Counterfactual explanation is a form of interpretable machine learning that generates perturbations on a sample to achieve the desired outcome. The generated samples can act as instructions to guide end users on how to observe the desired results by altering samples. Although state-of-the-art counterfactual explanation methods are proposed to use variational autoencoder (VAE) to achieve promising improvements, they suffer from two major limitations: 1) the counterfactuals generation is prohibitively slow, which prevents algorithms from being deployed in interactive environments; 2) the counter…
Université de Lorraine（洛林大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；CentraleSupélec（巴黎中央理工-高等电力学院）
Visual counterfactual explanations identify modifications to an image that would change the prediction of a classifier. We propose a set of techniques based on generative models (VAE) and a classifier ensemble directly trained in the latent space, which all together, improve the quality of the gradient required to compute visual counterfactuals. These improvements lead to a novel classification model, Clarity, which produces realistic counterfactual explanations over all images. We also present several experiments that give insights on why these techniques lead to better quality results than t…
Explanation of AI, as well as fairness of algorithms' decisions and the transparency of the decision model, are becoming more and more important. And it is crucial to design effective and human-friendly techniques when opening the black-box model. Counterfactual conforms to the human way of thinking and provides a human-friendly explanation, and its corresponding explanation algorithm refers to a strategic alternation of a given data point so that its model output is "counter-facted", i.e. the prediction is reverted. In this paper, we adapt counterfactual explanation over fine-grained image cl…
Counterfactual explanation is an important Explainable AI technique to explain machine learning predictions. Despite being studied actively, existing optimization-based methods often assume that the underlying machine-learning model is differentiable and treat categorical attributes as continuous ones, which restricts their real-world applications when categorical attributes have many different values or the model is non-differentiable. To make counterfactual explanation suitable for real-world applications, we propose a novel framework of Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanation (MACE), whic…
We propose a novel method for explaining the predictions of any classifier. In our approach, local explanations are expected to explain both the outcome of a prediction and how that prediction would change if 'things had been different'. Furthermore, we argue that satisfactory explanations cannot be dissociated from a notion and measure of fidelity, as advocated in the early days of neural networks' knowledge extraction. We introduce a definition of fidelity to the underlying classifier for local explanation models which is based on distances to a target decision boundary. A system called CLEA…
Counterfactual explanations are one of the most popular methods to make predictions of black box machine learning models interpretable by providing explanations in the form of `what-if scenarios'. Most current approaches optimize a collapsed, weighted sum of multiple objectives, which are naturally difficult to balance a-priori. We propose the Multi-Objective Counterfactuals (MOC) method, which translates the counterfactual search into a multi-objective optimization problem. Our approach not only returns a diverse set of counterfactuals with different trade-offs between the proposed objectives…
Counterfactual explanations is one of the post-hoc methods used to provide explainability to machine learning models that have been attracting attention in recent years. Most examples in the literature, address the problem of generating post-hoc explanations for black-box machine learning models after the rejection of a loan application. In contrast, in this work, we investigate mathematical programming formulations for scorecard models, a type of interpretable model predominant within the banking industry for lending. The proposed mixed-integer programming formulations combine objective funct…
