Uncertainty quantification has become increasingly more prominent in nuclear physics over the past several years. In few-body reaction theory, there are four main sources that contribute to the uncertainties in the calculated observables: the effective potentials, approximations made to the few-body problem, structure functions, and degrees of freedom left out of the model space. In this work, we illustrate some of the features that can be obtained when modern statistical tools are applied in the context of nuclear reactions. This work consists of a summary of the progress that has been made in quantifying theoretical uncertainties in this domain, focusing primarily on those uncertainties coming from the effective optical potential as well as their propagation within various reaction theories. We use, as the central example, reactions on the doubly-magic stable nucleus $^{40}$Ca, namely neutron and proton elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer $^{40}$Ca(d,p)$^{41}$Ca. First, we show different optimization schemes used to constrain the optical potential from differential cross sections and other experimental constraints; we then discuss how these uncertainties propagate to the transfer cross section, comparing two reaction theories. We finish by laying out our future plans.
Reliable predictions of nuclear properties are needed as much to answer fundamental science questions as in applications such as reactor physics or data evaluation. Nuclear density functional theory is currently the only microscopic, global approach to nuclear structure that is applicable throughout the nuclear chart. In the past few years, a lot of effort has been devoted to setting up a general methodology to assess theoretical uncertainties in nuclear DFT calculations. In this paper, we summarize some of the recent progress in this direction. Most of the new material discussed here will be …
We give a brief review on the development of phenomenological NN interactions and the corresponding quantification of statistical uncertainties. We look into the uncertainty of effective interactions broadly used in mean field calculations through the Skyrme parameters and effective field theory counter-terms by estimating both statistical and systematic uncertainties stemming from the NN interaction. We also comment on the role played by different fitting strategies on the light of recent developments.
Background: Charge-exchange reactions are a powerful tool for exploring nuclear structure and nuclear astrophysics, however, a robust charge-exchange reaction theory with quantified uncertainties is essential to extracting reliable physics. Purpose: The goal of this work is to determine the uncertainties due to optical potentials used in the theory for charge-exchange reactions to isobaric analogue states. Method: We implement a two-body reaction model to study (p,n) charge-exchange transitions and perform a Bayesian analysis. We study the (p,n) reaction to the isobaric analog states of $^{14}…
Within a Bayesian statistical framework using the standard Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model, the maximum {\it a posteriori} (MAP) values and uncertainties of nuclear matter incompressibility and isovector interaction parameters are inferred from the experimental data of giant resonances and neutron-skin thicknesses of typical heavy nuclei. With the uncertainties of the isovector interaction parameters constrained by the data of the isovector giant dipole resonance and the neutron-skin thickness, we have obtained $K_0 = 223_{-8}^{+7}$ MeV at 68% confidence level using the data of the isoscalar giant m…
We extract the statistical uncertainties for the pion-nucleon ($πN$) low energy constants (LECs) up to fourth order $\mathcal{O}(Q^4)$ in the chiral expansion of the nuclear effective Lagrangian. The LECs are optimized with respect to experimental scattering data. For comparison, we also present an uncertainty quantification that is based solely on \pin{} scattering phase shifts. Statistical errors on the LECs are critical in order to estimate the subsequent uncertainties in \textit{ab initio} modeling of light and medium mass nuclei which exploit chiral effective field theory. As an example o…
Until recently, uncertainty quantification in low energy nuclear theory was typically performed using frequentist approaches. However in the last few years, the field has shifted toward Bayesian statistics for evaluating confidence intervals. Although there are statistical arguments to prefer the Bayesian approach, no direct comparison is available. In this work, we compare, directly and systematically, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to quantifying uncertainties in direct nuclear reactions. Starting from identical initial assumptions, we determine confidence intervals associated with …
Nucleosynthesis beyond Fe poses additional challenges not encountered when studying astrophysical processes involving light nuclei. Generally higher temperatures and nuclear level densities lead to stronger contributions of transitions on excited target states. This may prevent cross section measurements to determine stellar reaction rates and theory contributions remain important. Furthermore, measurements often are not feasible in the astrophysically relevant energy range. Sensitivity analysis allows not only to determine the contributing nuclear properties but also is a handy tool for exper…
We develop an effective field theory (EFT) for nuclear vibrations. The key ingredients - quadrupole degrees of freedom, rotational invariance, and a breakdown scale around the three-phonon level - are taken from data. The EFT is developed for spectra and electromagnetic moments and transitions. We employ tools from Bayesian statistics for the quantification of theoretical uncertainties. The EFT consistently describes spectra and electromagnetic transitions for $^{62}$Ni, $^{98,100}$Ru, $^{106,108}$Pd, $^{110,112,114}$Cd, and $^{118,120,122}$Te within the theoretical uncertainties. This suggest…
Despite recent advances and focus on rigorous uncertainty quantification for microscopic models of quantum many-body systems, the uncertainty on the dynamics of those systems has been under-explored. To address this, we have used time-dependent Hartree-Fock to examine the model uncertainty for a collection of low-energy, heavy-ion fusion reactions. Fusion reactions at near-barrier energies represent a rich test-bed for the dynamics of quantum many-body systems owing to the complex interplay of collective excitation, transfer, and static effects that determine the fusion probability of a given …
In the context of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of particle transport Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) addresses the issue of predicting non statistical errors affecting the physical results, i.e. errors deriving mainly from uncertainties in the physics data and/or in the model they embed. In the case of a single uncertainty a simple analytical relation exists among its the Probability Density Function (PDF) and the corresponding PDF for the output of the simulation: this allows a complete statistical analysis of the results of the simulation. We examine the extension of this result to the multi-…
Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is one of the main theoretical tools used to study the properties of heavy and superheavy elements, or to describe the structure of nuclei far from stability. While on-going efforts seek to better root nuclear DFT in the theory of nuclear forces [see Duguet et al., this issue], energy functionals remain semi-phenomenological constructions that depend on a set of parameters adjusted to experimental data in finite nuclei. In this paper, we review recent efforts to quantify the related uncertainties, and propagate them to model predictions. In particular, w…
The application of effective field theory (EFT) methods to nuclear systems provides the opportunity to rigorously estimate the uncertainties originating in the nuclear Hamiltonian. Yet this is just one source of uncertainty in the observables predicted by calculations based on nuclear EFTs. We discuss the goals of uncertainty quantification in such calculations and outline a recipe to obtain statistically meaningful error bars for their predictions. We argue that the different sources of theory error can be accounted for within a Bayesian framework, as we illustrate using a toy model.
Although uncertainty quantification has been making its way into nuclear theory, these methods have yet to be explored in the context of reaction theory. For example, it is well known that different parameterizations of the optical potential can result in different cross sections, but these differences have not been systematically studied and quantified. The purpose of this work is to investigate the uncertainties in nuclear reactions that result from fitting a given model to elastic-scattering data, as well as to study how these uncertainties propagate to the inelastic and transfer channels. …
The numerical technique of Lattice QCD holds the promise of connecting the nuclear forces, nuclei, the spectrum and structure of hadrons, and the properties of matter under extreme conditions with the underlying theory of the strong interactions, quantum chromodynamics. A distinguishing, and thus far unique, feature of this formulation is that all of the associated uncertainties, both statistical and systematic can, in principle, be systematically reduced to any desired precision with sufficient computational and human resources. We review the sources of uncertainty inherent in Lattice QCD cal…
Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models; to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability; to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment; and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurement…
Breakup reactions are one of the favored probes to study loosely bound nuclei, particularly those in the limit of stability forming a halo. In order to interpret such breakup experiments, the continuum discretized coupled channel method is typically used. In this study, the first Bayesian analysis of a breakup reaction model is performed. We use a combination of statistical methods together with a three-body reaction model (the continuum discretized coupled channel method) to quantify the uncertainties on the breakup observables due to the parameters in the effective potential describing the l…
