Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is the gold standard for estimating partition functions or marginal likelihoods, corresponding to importance sampling over a path of distributions between a tractable base and an unnormalized target. While AIS yields an unbiased estimator for any path, existing literature has been primarily limited to the geometric mixture or moment-averaged paths associated with the exponential family and KL divergence. We explore AIS using $q$-paths, which include the geometric path as a special case and are related to the homogeneous power mean, deformed exponential family, and $α$-divergence.
Redwood Center for Theoretical Neuroscience（雷德伍德理论神经科学中心）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
We introduce an extension to annealed importance sampling that uses Hamiltonian dynamics to rapidly estimate normalization constants. We demonstrate this method by computing log likelihoods in directed and undirected probabilistic image models. We compare the performance of linear generative models with both Gaussian and Laplace priors, product of experts models with Laplace and Student's t experts, the mc-RBM, and a bilinear generative model. We provide code to compare additional models.
Stellenbosch University（斯泰伦博斯大学）；National Institute for Theoretical Physics（国家理论物理研究所）
We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such settings by using stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. This approach is far more efficient than traditional marginal likelihood estimation techniques such as nested sampling and annealed importance sampling due to its use of mini-batches to approximate the likelihood. Stability of the estimates is provided by an adaptive annealing schedule. Th…
The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；The Grossman Institute for Neuroscience, Quantitative Biology and Human Behavior（格罗斯曼神经科学、定量生物学与人类行为研究所）
Variational inference (VI) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are two main approximate approaches for learning deep generative models by maximizing marginal likelihood. In this paper, we propose using annealed importance sampling for learning deep generative models. Our proposed approach bridges VI with MCMC. It generalizes VI methods such as variational auto-encoders and importance weighted auto-encoders (IWAE) and the MCMC method proposed in (Hoffman, 2017). It also provides insights into why running multiple short MCMC chains can help learning deep generative models. Through experiments, w…
ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Swiss Data Science Center（瑞士数据科学中心）
Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) is a popular algorithm used to estimates the intractable marginal likelihood of deep generative models. Although AIS is guaranteed to provide unbiased estimate for any set of hyperparameters, the common implementations rely on simple heuristics such as the geometric average bridging distributions between initial and the target distribution which affect the estimation performance when the computation budget is limited. In order to reduce the number of sampling iterations, we present a parameteric AIS process with flexible intermediary distributions defined by …
Score-based generative models provide state-of-the-art quality for image and audio synthesis. Sampling from these models is performed iteratively, typically employing a discretized series of noise levels and a predefined scheme. In this note, we first overview three common sampling schemes for models trained with denoising score matching. Next, we focus on one of them, consistent annealed sampling, and study its hyper-parameter boundaries. We then highlight a possible formulation of such hyper-parameter that explicitly considers those boundaries and facilitates tuning when using few or a varia…
More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable initial distribution and the target distribution of interest which we simulate from approximately using a non-homogeneous Markov chain. To obtain an importance sampling estimate of the marginal likelihood, AIS introduces an extended target distribution to reweight the Markov chain proposal. While much effort has been devoted to improving the proposal distribution…
The evaluation of the free energy of a stochastic model is considered a significant issue in various fields of physics and machine learning. However, the exact free energy evaluation is computationally infeasible because the free energy expression includes an intractable partition function. Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is a type of importance sampling based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method that is similar to a simulated annealing and can effectively approximate the free energy. This study proposes an AIS-based approach, which is referred to as marginalized AIS (mAIS). The statistic…
Evaluating expectations on an Ising model (or Boltzmann machine) is essential for various applications, including statistical machine learning. However, in general, the evaluation is computationally difficult because it involves intractable multiple summations or integrations; therefore, it requires approximation. Monte Carlo integration (MCI) is a well-known approximation method; a more effective MCI-like approximation method was proposed recently, called spatial Monte Carlo integration (SMCI). However, the estimations obtained using SMCI (and MCI) exhibit a low accuracy in Ising models under…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems Tübingen（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所图宾根）；Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics (Albert Einstein Institute)（马克斯·普朗克引力物理研究所（爱因斯坦研究所））；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑技术大学）；Isomorphic Labs（同构实验室）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；University of Bochum（博德姆大学）
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - BarcelonaTech（加泰罗尼亚理工大学）
Probabilistic models based on Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) imply the evaluation of normalized Boltzmann factors, which in turn require from the evaluation of the partition function Z. The exact evaluation of Z, though, becomes a forbiddingly expensive task as the system size increases. This even worsens when one considers most usual learning algorithms for RBMs, where the exact evaluation of the gradient of the log-likelihood of the empirical distribution of the data includes the computation of Z at each iteration. The Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) method provides a tool to stocha…
Variational inference is a powerful paradigm for approximate Bayesian inference with a number of appealing properties, including support for model learning and data subsampling. By contrast MCMC methods like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo do not share these properties but remain attractive since, contrary to parametric methods, MCMC is asymptotically unbiased. For these reasons researchers have sought to combine the strengths of both classes of algorithms, with recent approaches coming closer to realizing this vision in practice. However, supporting data subsampling in these hybrid methods can be a c…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute（矢量研究所）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Annealed importance sampling (AIS) and related algorithms are highly effective tools for marginal likelihood estimation, but are not fully differentiable due to the use of Metropolis-Hastings correction steps. Differentiability is a desirable property as it would admit the possibility of optimizing marginal likelihood as an objective using gradient-based methods. To this end, we propose Differentiable AIS (DAIS), a variant of AIS which ensures differentiability by abandoning the Metropolis-Hastings corrections. As a further advantage, DAIS allows for mini-batch gradients. We provide a detailed…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；InstaDeep（InstaDeep公司）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Normalizing flows are tractable density models that can approximate complicated target distributions, e.g. Boltzmann distributions of physical systems. However, current methods for training flows either suffer from mode-seeking behavior, use samples from the target generated beforehand by expensive MCMC methods, or use stochastic losses that have high variance. To avoid these problems, we augment flows with annealed importance sampling (AIS) and minimize the mass-covering $α$-divergence with $α=2$, which minimizes importance weight variance. Our method, Flow AIS Bootstrap (FAB), uses AIS to ge…
University of Montreal（蒙特利尔大学）；Microsoft Research Lab（微软研究院实验室）
Denoising Score Matching with Annealed Langevin Sampling (DSM-ALS) has recently found success in generative modeling. The approach works by first training a neural network to estimate the score of a distribution, and then using Langevin dynamics to sample from the data distribution assumed by the score network. Despite the convincing visual quality of samples, this method appears to perform worse than Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) under the Fréchet Inception Distance, a standard metric for generative models. We show that this apparent gap vanishes when denoising the final Langevin sam…
Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) and its Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) extensions are state-of-the-art methods for estimating normalizing constants of probability distributions. We propose here a novel Monte Carlo algorithm, Annealed Flow Transport (AFT), that builds upon AIS and SMC and combines them with normalizing flows (NFs) for improved performance. This method transports a set of particles using not only importance sampling (IS), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and resampling steps - as in SMC, but also relies on NFs which are learned sequentially to push particles towards the successi…
Let it Calm: Exploratory Annealed Decoding for Verifiable Reinforcement Learning
Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学计算机科学系）；Department of Statistics, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学统计系）；Toyota Technological Insitute at Chicago（芝加哥丰田技术研究所）；Data Science Institute, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学数据科学研究所）；Meta AI
Enhanced Neural Quantum State via Annealed Gradient Descent
Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China（中国科学院高能物理研究所）；China Center of Advanced Science（中国先进科学研究中心）；Center on Frontiers of Computing Studies, School of Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China（前沿计算研究中心，北京大学计算机学院）
Stochastic gradient descent samples uniformly the training set to build an unbiased gradient estimate with a limited number of samples. However, at a given step of the training process, some data are more helpful than others to continue learning. Importance sampling for training deep neural networks has been widely studied to propose sampling schemes yielding better performance than the uniform sampling scheme. After recalling the theory of importance sampling for deep learning, this paper reviews the challenges inherent to this research area. In particular, we propose a metric allowing the as…
A central challenge to applying many off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms to real world problems is the variance introduced by importance sampling. In off-policy learning, the agent learns about a different policy than the one being executed. To account for the difference importance sampling ratios are often used, but can increase variance in the algorithms and reduce the rate of learning. Several variations of importance sampling have been proposed to reduce variance, with per-decision importance sampling being the most popular. However, the update rules for most off-policy algorithms…
Kernel weighted importance sampling for off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits
Institute of Child Health, University College London（伦敦大学学院儿童健康研究所）；Strive Health Ltd.（奋进健康有限公司）；National Institute for Health Research（国家卫生研究院）；University College London, Biomedical Research Council（伦敦大学学院生物医学研究委员会）；Great Ormond Street Hospital（大奥蒙德街医院）；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）
Improving Mutual Information Estimation with Annealed and Energy-Based Bounds
Information Sciences Institute, University of Southern California（南加州大学信息科学研究所）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；MIT EECS / IMES / CSAIL（麻省理工学院电气工程与计算机科学系 / 医学工程与科学研究所 / 计算机科学与人工智能实验室）
Uniform sampling of training data has been commonly used in traditional stochastic optimization algorithms such as Proximal Stochastic Gradient Descent (prox-SGD) and Proximal Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent (prox-SDCA). Although uniform sampling can guarantee that the sampled stochastic quantity is an unbiased estimate of the corresponding true quantity, the resulting estimator may have a rather high variance, which negatively affects the convergence of the underlying optimization procedure. In this paper we study stochastic optimization with importance sampling, which improves the converge…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
We introduce data structures for solving robust regression through stochastic gradient descent (SGD) by sampling gradients with probability proportional to their norm, i.e., importance sampling. Although SGD is widely used for large scale machine learning, it is well-known for possibly experiencing slow convergence rates due to the high variance from uniform sampling. On the other hand, importance sampling can significantly decrease the variance but is usually difficult to implement because computing the sampling probabilities requires additional passes over the data, in which case standard gr…
Sichuan University（四川大学）；Huazhong University of Technology（华中理工大学）；New York University（纽约大学）
Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) training process, in most cases, apply Uniform or Gaussian sampling methods in the latent space, which probably spends most of the computation on examples that can be properly handled and easy to generate. Theoretically, importance sampling speeds up stochastic optimization in supervised learning by prioritizing training examples. In this paper, we explore the possibility of adapting importance sampling into adversarial learning. We use importance sampling to replace Uniform and Gaussian sampling methods in the latent space and employ normalizing flow to a…
EPFL（洛桑联邦理工学院）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Importance sampling has become an indispensable strategy to speed up optimization algorithms for large-scale applications. Improved adaptive variants - using importance values defined by the complete gradient information which changes during optimization - enjoy favorable theoretical properties, but are typically computationally infeasible. In this paper we propose an efficient approximation of gradient-based sampling, which is based on safe bounds on the gradient. The proposed sampling distribution is (i) provably the best sampling with respect to the given bounds, (ii) always better than uni…
Low Variance Off-policy Evaluation with State-based Importance Sampling
Agency for Science, Technology and Research（新加坡科技研究局）；Manning College of Information and Computer Sciences（曼宁信息与计算机科学学院）；University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Mila - University of Montreal（米拉研究所 - 蒙特利尔大学）
Off-policy policy estimators that use importance sampling (IS) can suffer from high variance in long-horizon domains, and there has been particular excitement over new IS methods that leverage the structure of Markov decision processes. We analyze the variance of the most popular approaches through the viewpoint of conditional Monte Carlo. Surprisingly, we find that in finite horizon MDPs there is no strict variance reduction of per-decision importance sampling or stationary importance sampling, comparing with vanilla importance sampling. We then provide sufficient conditions under which the p…
Importance sampling is often used in machine learning when training and testing data come from different distributions. In this paper we propose a new variant of importance sampling that can reduce the variance of importance sampling-based estimates by orders of magnitude when the supports of the training and testing distributions differ. After motivating and presenting our new importance sampling estimator, we provide a detailed theoretical analysis that characterizes both its bias and variance relative to the ordinary importance sampling estimator (in various settings, which include cases wh…
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）
Federated learning involves a mixture of centralized and decentralized processing tasks, where a server regularly selects a sample of the agents and these in turn sample their local data to compute stochastic gradients for their learning updates. This process runs continually. The sampling of both agents and data is generally uniform; however, in this work we consider non-uniform sampling. We derive optimal importance sampling strategies for both agent and data selection and show that non-uniform sampling without replacement improves the performance of the original FedAvg algorithm. We run exp…
The principal contribution of this paper is a conceptual framework for off-policy reinforcement learning, based on conditional expectations of importance sampling ratios. This framework yields new perspectives and understanding of existing off-policy algorithms, and reveals a broad space of unexplored algorithms. We theoretically analyse this space, and concretely investigate several algorithms that arise from this framework.
Netherlands eScience Center（荷兰电子科学中心）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）
Importance-weighting is a popular and well-researched technique for dealing with sample selection bias and covariate shift. It has desirable characteristics such as unbiasedness, consistency and low computational complexity. However, weighting can have a detrimental effect on an estimator as well. In this work, we empirically show that the sampling distribution of an importance-weighted estimator can be skewed. For sample selection bias settings, and for small sample sizes, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces overestimates for datasets in the body of the sampling distribution, i.e.…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Northeastern University（东北大学）
We study adaptive importance sampling (AIS) as an online learning problem and argue for the importance of the trade-off between exploration and exploitation in this adaptation. Borrowing ideas from the bandits literature, we propose Daisee, a partition-based AIS algorithm. We further introduce a notion of regret for AIS and show that Daisee has $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T}(\log T)^{\frac{3}{4}})$ cumulative pseudo-regret, where $T$ is the number of iterations. We then extend Daisee to adaptively learn a hierarchical partitioning of the sample space for more efficient sampling and confirm the performa…
Humans are able to accelerate their learning by selecting training materials that are the most informative and at the appropriate level of difficulty. We propose a framework for distributing deep learning in which one set of workers search for the most informative examples in parallel while a single worker updates the model on examples selected by importance sampling. This leads the model to update using an unbiased estimate of the gradient which also has minimum variance when the sampling proposal is proportional to the L2-norm of the gradient. We show experimentally that this method reduces …
We consider an active learning setting where the algorithm has access to a large pool of unlabeled data and a small pool of labeled data. In each iteration, the algorithm chooses few unlabeled data points and obtains their labels from an oracle. In this paper, we consider a probabilistic querying procedure to choose the points to be labeled. We propose an algorithm for Active Learning with Importance Sampling (ALIS), and derive upper bounds on the true loss incurred by the algorithm for any arbitrary probabilistic sampling procedure. Further, we propose an optimal sampling distribution that mi…
We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant points in the target distribution. We prove that it is possible to introduce search and still maintain unbiasedness. We then demonstrate our procedure on a few simple inference tasks and show that it can improve the inference quality of standard MCMC methods, including Gibbs sampling, Metropolis sampling, and Hybrid Monte Carlo. This paper extends previous work…
School of Mathematics（数学学院）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）
Minibatching is a very well studied and highly popular technique in supervised learning, used by practitioners due to its ability to accelerate training through better utilization of parallel processing power and reduction of stochastic variance. Another popular technique is importance sampling -- a strategy for preferential sampling of more important examples also capable of accelerating the training process. However, despite considerable effort by the community in these areas, and due to the inherent technical difficulty of the problem, there is no existing work combining the power of import…
We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. Off-policy evaluation is the task of evaluating the expected return of one policy with data generated by a different, behavior policy. Importance sampling is a technique for off-policy evaluation that re-weights off-policy returns to account for differences in the likelihood of the returns between the two policies. In this paper, we study importance sampling with an estimated behavior policy where the behavior policy estimate comes from the same set of data used to compute the importance sampling estimate. We find t…
This paper introduces Tree-Pyramidal Adaptive Importance Sampling (TP-AIS), a novel iterated sampling method that outperforms state-of-the-art approaches like deterministic mixture population Monte Carlo (DM-PMC), mixture population Monte Carlo (M-PMC) and layered adaptive importance sampling (LAIS). TP-AIS iteratively builds a proposal distribution parameterized by a tree pyramid, where each tree leaf spans a subspace that represents its importance density. After each new sample operation, a set of tree leaves are subdivided for improving the approximation of the proposal distribution to the …
Reducing the variance of the gradient estimator is known to improve the convergence rate of stochastic gradient-based optimization and sampling algorithms. One way of achieving variance reduction is to design importance sampling strategies. Recently, the problem of designing such schemes was formulated as an online learning problem with bandit feedback, and algorithms with sub-linear static regret were designed. In this work, we build on this framework and propose Avare, a simple and efficient algorithm for adaptive importance sampling for finite-sum optimization and sampling with decreasing s…
