Power-law multi-wave model for COVID-19 propagation in countries with nonuniform population density

P. S. Grinchuk, S. P. Fisenko

备注：: The forecast was published for the first time on June 01, 2020 (https://doi.org/10.24108/preprints-3112063)

英文摘要：

The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves developing almost independently and simultaneously in areas with different population density. The intensity of each wave is described by a power-law dependence. The parameters of dependence are determined by real statistical data at the initial stage of the disease spread. The results of the model simulation were verified using statistical data for the Republic of Belarus. Based on the developed model, a forecast calculation was made at the end of May, 2020. The accuracy of forecasting the total number of cases for a period of 3 months in the proposed approach was about 3 percent.

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