One of the most pressing issues in AI in recent years has been the need to address the lack of explainability of many of its models. We focus on explanations for discrete Bayesian network classifiers (BCs), targeting greater transparency of their inner workings by including intermediate variables in explanations, rather than just the input and output variables as is standard practice. The proposed influence-driven explanations (IDXs) for BCs are systematically generated using the causal relationships between variables within the BC, called influences, which are then categorised by logical requirements, called relation properties, according to their behaviour. These relation properties both provide guarantees beyond heuristic explanation methods and allow the information underpinning an explanation to be tailored to a particular context's and user's requirements, e.g., IDXs may be dialectical or counterfactual. We demonstrate IDXs' capability to explain various forms of BCs, e.g., naive or multi-label, binary or categorical, and also integrate recent approaches to explanations for BCs from the literature. We evaluate IDXs with theoretical and empirical analyses, demonstrating their considerable advantages when compared with existing explanation methods.
Open University of the Netherlands（荷兰开放大学）；Osaka University（大阪大学）；Radboud University（拉德堡德大学）
Explaining predictions from Bayesian networks, for example to physicians, is non-trivial. Various explanation methods for Bayesian network inference have appeared in literature, focusing on different aspects of the underlying reasoning. While there has been a lot of technical research, there is very little known about how well humans actually understand these explanations. In this paper, we present ongoing research in which four different explanation approaches were compared through a survey by asking a group of human participants to interpret the explanations.
IBM Research GmbH（IBM研究院）；Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）
Bayesian networks can be used to extract explanations about the observed state of a subset of variables. In this paper, we explicate the desiderata of an explanation and confront them with the concept of explanation proposed by existing methods. The necessity of taking into account causal approaches when a causal graph is available is discussed. We then introduce causal explanation trees, based on the construction of explanation trees using the measure of causal information ow (Ay and Polani, 2006). This approach is compared to several other methods on known networks.
Mississippi State University（密西西比州立大学）；Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术院）；HRL Laboratories LLC（HRL实验室）
A major inference task in Bayesian networks is explaining why some variables are observed in their particular states using a set of target variables. Existing methods for solving this problem often generate explanations that are either too simple (underspecified) or too complex (overspecified). In this paper, we introduce a method called Most Relevant Explanation (MRE) which finds a partial instantiation of the target variables that maximizes the generalized Bayes factor (GBF) as the best explanation for the given evidence. Our study shows that GBF has several theoretical properties that enabl…
We propose an approach for explaining Bayesian network classifiers, which is based on compiling such classifiers into decision functions that have a tractable and symbolic form. We introduce two types of explanations for why a classifier may have classified an instance positively or negatively and suggest algorithms for computing these explanations. The first type of explanation identifies a minimal set of the currently active features that is responsible for the current classification, while the second type of explanation identifies a minimal set of features whose current state (active or not…
Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition, and Behaviour（唐德斯大脑、认知与行为研究所）；Radboud University（拉德堡德大学）
In decision support systems the motivation and justification of the system's diagnosis or classification is crucial for the acceptance of the system by the human user. In Bayesian networks a diagnosis or classification is typically formalized as the computation of the most probable joint value assignment to the hypothesis variables, given the observed values of the evidence variables (generally known as the MAP problem). While solving the MAP problem gives the most probable explanation of the evidence, the computation is a black box as far as the human user is concerned and it does not give ad…
Bayesian network classifiers are used in many fields, and one common class of classifiers are naive Bayes classifiers. In this paper, we introduce an approach for reasoning about Bayesian network classifiers in which we explicitly convert them into Ordered Decision Diagrams (ODDs), which are then used to reason about the properties of these classifiers. Specifically, we present an algorithm for converting any naive Bayes classifier into an ODD, and we show theoretically and experimentally that this algorithm can give us an ODD that is tractable in size even given an intractable number of insta…
In this paper, we empirically evaluate algorithms for learning four types of Bayesian network (BN) classifiers - Naive-Bayes, tree augmented Naive-Bayes, BN augmented Naive-Bayes and general BNs, where the latter two are learned using two variants of a conditional-independence (CI) based BN-learning algorithm. Experimental results show the obtained classifiers, learned using the CI based algorithms, are competitive with (or superior to) the best known classifiers, based on both Bayesian networks and other formalisms; and that the computational time for learning and using these classifiers is r…
Continuous time Bayesian network classifiers are designed for temporal classification of multivariate streaming data when time duration of events matters and the class does not change over time. This paper introduces the CTBNCToolkit: an open source Java toolkit which provides a stand-alone application for temporal classification and a library for continuous time Bayesian network classifiers. CTBNCToolkit implements the inference algorithm, the parameter learning algorithm, and the structural learning algorithm for continuous time Bayesian network classifiers. The structural learning algorithm…
In this paper we present a new Bayesian network model for classification that combines the naive-Bayes (NB) classifier and the finite-mixture (FM) classifier. The resulting classifier aims at relaxing the strong assumptions on which the two component models are based, in an attempt to improve on their classification performance, both in terms of accuracy and in terms of calibration of the estimated probabilities. The proposed classifier is obtained by superimposing a finite mixture model on the set of feature variables of a naive Bayes model. We present experimental results that compare the pr…
Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour（唐德斯脑、认知与行为研究所）；Radboud University Nijmegen（奈梅亨拉德堡德大学）
Finding the most probable explanation for observed variables in a Bayesian network is a notoriously intractable problem, particularly if there are hidden variables in the network. In this paper we examine the complexity of a related problem, that is, the problem of finding a set of sufficiently dissimilar, yet all plausible, explanations. Applications of this problem are, e.g., in search query results (you won't want 10 results that all link to the same website) or in decision support systems. We show that the problem of finding a 'good enough' explanation that differs in structure from the be…
St. Pölten University of Applied Sciences（圣帕尔滕应用科学大学）
Explainable artificial intelligence is the attempt to elucidate the workings of systems too complex to be directly accessible to human cognition through suitable side-information referred to as "explanations". We present a trainable explanation module for convolutional image classifiers we call bounded logit attention (BLA). The BLA module learns to select a subset of the convolutional feature map for each input instance, which then serves as an explanation for the classifier's prediction. BLA overcomes several limitations of the instancewise feature selection method "learning to explain" (L2X…
When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated by a single Gaussian. In this paper we abandon the normality assumption and instead use statistical methods for nonparametric density estimation. For a naive Bayesian classifier, we present experimental results on a variety of natural and artificial domains, comparing two methods of density estimation: assuming normality and modeling each conditional distrib…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Microsoft Corporation（微软公司）
Low-dimensional probability models for local distribution functions in a Bayesian network include decision trees, decision graphs, and causal independence models. We describe a new probability model for discrete Bayesian networks, which we call an embedded Bayesian network classifier or EBNC. The model for a node $Y$ given parents $\bf X$ is obtained from a (usually different) Bayesian network for $Y$ and $\bf X$ in which $\bf X$ need not be the parents of $Y$. We show that an EBNC is a special case of a softmax polynomial regression model. Also, we show how to identify a non-redundant set of …
Learning the structure of Bayesian networks is a difficult combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we consider learning of tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN) structures for Bayesian network classifiers with discrete input features. Instead of performing a combinatorial optimization over the space of possible graph structures, the proposed method learns a distribution over graph structures. After training, we select the most probable structure of this distribution. This allows for a joint training of the Bayesian network parameters along with its TAN structure using gradient-based opti…
An investigation into the performances of the Current state-of-the-art Naive Bayes, Non-Bayesian and Deep Learning Based Classifier for Phishing Detection: A Survey
The University of Texas at El Paso（德克萨斯大学埃尔帕索分校）；Office of Naval Research（海军研究办公室）；Palo Alto Networks Inc（帕洛阿尔托网络公司）
Graz University of Technology（格拉茨技术大学）；Ruprecht Karls University（鲁普莱希特-卡尔斯大学）
We present two methods to reduce the complexity of Bayesian network (BN) classifiers. First, we introduce quantization-aware training using the straight-through gradient estimator to quantize the parameters of BNs to few bits. Second, we extend a recently proposed differentiable tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN) structure learning approach by also considering the model size. Both methods are motivated by recent developments in the deep learning community, and they provide effective means to trade off between model size and prediction accuracy, which is demonstrated in extensive experiments. Fur…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）
To construct interpretable explanations that are consistent with the original ML model, counterfactual examples---showing how the model's output changes with small perturbations to the input---have been proposed. This paper extends the work in counterfactual explanations by addressing the challenge of feasibility of such examples. For explanations of ML models in critical domains such as healthcare and finance, counterfactual examples are useful for an end-user only to the extent that perturbation of feature inputs is feasible in the real world. We formulate the problem of feasibility as prese…
University of Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；IRIT, CNRS, Toulouse（图卢兹大学综合研究中心（IRIT），法国国家科学研究中心（CNRS），图卢兹）
When reasoning about explanations of Machine Learning (ML) classifiers, a pertinent query is to decide whether some sensitive features can serve for explaining a given prediction. Recent work showed that the feature membership problem (FMP) is hard for $Σ_2^P$ for a broad class of classifiers. In contrast, this paper shows that for a number of families of classifiers, FMP is in NP. Concretely, the paper proves that any classifier for which an explanation can be computed in polynomial time, then deciding feature membership in an explanation can be decided with one NP oracle call. The paper then…
Artificial Intelligence and Learning Systems Laboratory（人工智能与学习系统实验室）；School of Electrical and Computer Engineering（电气与计算机工程学院）；National Technical University of Athens（雅典国立技术大学）
The use of symbolic knowledge representation and reasoning as a way to resolve the lack of transparency of machine learning classifiers is a research area that lately attracts many researchers. In this work, we use knowledge graphs as the underlying framework providing the terminology for representing explanations for the operation of a machine learning classifier. In particular, given a description of the application domain of the classifier in the form of a knowledge graph, we introduce a novel method for extracting and representing black-box explanations of its operation, in the form of fir…
Bayesian Belief Networks have been largely overlooked by Expert Systems practitioners on the grounds that they do not correspond to the human inference mechanism. In this paper, we introduce an explanation mechanism designed to generate intuitive yet probabilistically sound explanations of inferences drawn by a Bayesian Belief Network. In particular, our mechanism accounts for the results obtained due to changes in the causal and the evidential support of a node.
PAR Government Systems Corporation（PAR政府系统公司）；Siemens Research and Technology laboratories（西门子研究与技术实验室）
Explanation facilities are a particularly important feature of expert system frameworks. It is an area in which traditional rule-based expert system frameworks have had mixed results. While explanations about control are well handled, facilities are needed for generating better explanations concerning knowledge base content. This paper approaches the explanation problem by examining the effect an event has on a variable of interest within a symmetric Bayesian inferencing system. We argue that any effect measure operating in this context must satisfy certain properties. Such a measure is propos…
King's College London（伦敦国王学院）；Amazon.com, Inc.（亚马逊公司）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
In this paper titled A Symbolic Approach for Counterfactual Explanations we propose a novel symbolic approach to provide counterfactual explanations for a classifier predictions. Contrary to most explanation approaches where the goal is to understand which and to what extent parts of the data helped to give a prediction, counterfactual explanations indicate which features must be changed in the data in order to change this classifier prediction. Our approach is symbolic in the sense that it is based on encoding the decision function of a classifier in an equivalent CNF formula. In this approac…
Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur（印度理工学院克勒格布尔分校）
The presented report evaluates Contextualizing Hate Speech Classifiers with Post-hoc Explanation paper within the scope of ML Reproducibility Challenge 2020. Our work focuses on both aspects constituting the paper: the method itself and the validity of the stated results. In the following sections, we have described the paper, related works, algorithmic frameworks, our experiments and evaluations.
University of Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；Univ. Paul Sabatier（保罗·萨巴蒂埃大学）；Universitat de Lleida（莱里达大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）
Given a machine learning (ML) model and a prediction, explanations can be defined as sets of features which are sufficient for the prediction. In some applications, and besides asking for an explanation, it is also critical to understand whether sensitive features can occur in some explanation, or whether a non-interesting feature must occur in all explanations. This paper starts by relating such queries respectively with the problems of relevancy and necessity in logic-based abduction. The paper then proves membership and hardness results for several families of ML classifiers. Afterwards the…
University of Liverpool（利物浦大学）；Heriot-Watt University（赫瑞-瓦特大学）；Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica（荷兰国家数学与计算机科学研究所）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）
Given the pressing need for assuring algorithmic transparency, Explainable AI (XAI) has emerged as one of the key areas of AI research. In this paper, we develop a novel Bayesian extension to the LIME framework, one of the most widely used approaches in XAI -- which we call BayLIME. Compared to LIME, BayLIME exploits prior knowledge and Bayesian reasoning to improve both the consistency in repeated explanations of a single prediction and the robustness to kernel settings. BayLIME also exhibits better explanation fidelity than the state-of-the-art (LIME, SHAP and GradCAM) by its ability to inte…
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich（慕尼黑路德维希-马克西米利安大学）；Technion-Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）；New York University（纽约大学）；University of Tromsø（特罗姆瑟大学）
We present CartoonX (Cartoon Explanation), a novel model-agnostic explanation method tailored towards image classifiers and based on the rate-distortion explanation (RDE) framework. Natural images are roughly piece-wise smooth signals -- also called cartoon-like images -- and tend to be sparse in the wavelet domain. CartoonX is the first explanation method to exploit this by requiring its explanations to be sparse in the wavelet domain, thus extracting the relevant piece-wise smooth part of an image instead of relevant pixel-sparse regions. We demonstrate that CartoonX can reveal novel valuabl…
We propose a novel method for explaining the predictions of any classifier. In our approach, local explanations are expected to explain both the outcome of a prediction and how that prediction would change if 'things had been different'. Furthermore, we argue that satisfactory explanations cannot be dissociated from a notion and measure of fidelity, as advocated in the early days of neural networks' knowledge extraction. We introduce a definition of fidelity to the underlying classifier for local explanation models which is based on distances to a target decision boundary. A system called CLEA…
Supervised learning has traditionally focused on inductive learning by observing labeled examples of a task. In contrast, humans have the ability to learn new concepts from language. Here, we explore training zero-shot classifiers for structured data purely from language. For this, we introduce CLUES, a benchmark for Classifier Learning Using natural language ExplanationS, consisting of a range of classification tasks over structured data along with natural language supervision in the form of explanations. CLUES consists of 36 real-world and 144 synthetic classification tasks. It contains crow…
A useful method for representing Bayesian classifiers is through \emph{discriminant functions}. Here, using copula functions, we propose a new model for discriminants. This model provides a rich and generalized class of decision boundaries. These decision boundaries significantly boost the classification accuracy especially for high dimensional feature spaces. We strengthen our analysis through simulation results.
School of Electrical & Computer Engineering（电气与计算机工程学院）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence o…
There is broad agreement in the literature that explanation methods should be faithful to the model that they explain, but faithfulness remains a rather vague term. We revisit faithfulness in the context of continuous data and propose two formal definitions of faithfulness for feature attribution methods. Qualitative faithfulness demands that scores reflect the true qualitative effect (positive vs. negative) of the feature on the model and quanitative faithfulness that the magnitude of scores reflect the true quantitative effect. We discuss under which conditions these requirements can be sati…
The notion of Craig interpolant, used as a form of explanation in automated reasoning, is adapted from logical inference to statistical inference and used to explain inferences made by neural networks. The method produces explanations that are at the same time concise, understandable and precise.
University of Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；Monash University（莫纳什大学）；VMware Research（威睿研究部）；UPS（图卢兹第三大学）；IRIT（图卢兹信息学研究所）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）
The most widely studied explainable AI (XAI) approaches are unsound. This is the case with well-known model-agnostic explanation approaches, and it is also the case with approaches based on saliency maps. One solution is to consider intrinsic interpretability, which does not exhibit the drawback of unsoundness. Unfortunately, intrinsic interpretability can display unwieldy explanation redundancy. Formal explainability represents the alternative to these non-rigorous approaches, with one example being PI-explanations. Unfortunately, PI-explanations also exhibit important drawbacks, the most vis…
University of Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；Monash University（莫纳什大学）；IRIT（图卢兹信息学研究所）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）
Recent work has shown that not only decision trees (DTs) may not be interpretable but also proposed a polynomial-time algorithm for computing one PI-explanation of a DT. This paper shows that for a wide range of classifiers, globally referred to as decision graphs, and which include decision trees and binary decision diagrams, but also their multi-valued variants, there exist polynomial-time algorithms for computing one PI-explanation. In addition, the paper also proposes a polynomial-time algorithm for computing one contrastive explanation. These novel algorithms build on explanation graphs (…
University College Dublin（都柏林大学学院）；Insight Centre for Data Analytics, UCD（UCD洞察数据分析中心）；ML Labs, SFI CRT（SFI CRT机器学习实验室）
Very few eXplainable AI (XAI) studies consider how users understanding of explanations might change depending on whether they know more or less about the to be explained domain (i.e., whether they differ in their expertise). Yet, expertise is a critical facet of most high stakes, human decision making (e.g., understanding how a trainee doctor differs from an experienced consultant). Accordingly, this paper reports a novel, user study (N=96) on how peoples expertise in a domain affects their understanding of post-hoc explanations by example for a deep-learning, black box classifier. The results…
Institute for Artificial Intelligence and Decision Support（人工智能与决策支持研究所）；Medical University of Vienna（维也纳医科大学）
Deep neural networks and other intricate Artificial Intelligence (AI) models have reached high levels of accuracy on many biomedical natural language processing tasks. However, their applicability in real-world use cases may be limited due to their vague inner working and decision logic. A post-hoc explanation method can approximate the behavior of a black-box AI model by extracting relationships between feature values and outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a post-hoc explanation method that utilizes confident itemsets to approximate the behavior of black-box classifiers for medical informa…
TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies（法兰克福高等研究院）；Goethe University Frankfurt（法兰克福歌德大学）
Combining the outputs of multiple classifiers or experts into a single probabilistic classification is a fundamental task in machine learning with broad applications from classifier fusion to expert opinion pooling. Here we present a hierarchical Bayesian model of probabilistic classifier fusion based on a new correlated Dirichlet distribution. This distribution explicitly models positive correlations between marginally Dirichlet-distributed random vectors thereby allowing explicit modeling of correlations between base classifiers or experts. The proposed model naturally accommodates the class…
UC San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Despite their high accuracies, modern complex image classifiers cannot be trusted for sensitive tasks due to their unknown decision-making process and potential biases. Counterfactual explanations are very effective in providing transparency for these black-box algorithms. Nevertheless, generating counterfactuals that can have a consistent impact on classifier outputs and yet expose interpretable feature changes is a very challenging task. We introduce a novel method to generate causal and yet interpretable counterfactual explanations for image classifiers using pretrained generative models wi…
ISTI-CNR（意大利国家研究委员会信息科学与技术研究所）；University of Pisa（比萨大学）；Sorbonne Universite（索邦大学）
Explainable AI consists in developing mechanisms allowing for an interaction between decision systems and humans by making the decisions of the formers understandable. This is particularly important in sensitive contexts like in the medical domain. We propose a use case study, for skin lesion diagnosis, illustrating how it is possible to provide the practitioner with explanations on the decisions of a state of the art deep neural network classifier trained to characterize skin lesions from examples. Our framework consists of a trained classifier onto which an explanation module operates. The l…
Provably Robust Bayesian Counterfactual Explanations under Model Changes
School of Computing and Digital Technologies（计算与数字技术学院）；Sheffield Hallam University（谢菲尔德哈姆大学）；Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine（李科金医学院）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）
