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arXiv 2012.02950cs.LGcs.AIcs.CY
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基于异常排序和分类的纵向深凹预测

Deep Depression Prediction on Longitudinal Data via Joint Anomaly Ranking and Classification

Singapore Management University(新加坡管理大学);University of Adelaide(阿德莱德大学);University of Melbourne(墨尔本大学)

Guansong Pang, Ngoc Thien Anh Pham, Emma Baker, Rebecca Bentley, Anton van den Hengel

摘要:

已经开发了各种各样的方法来识别抑郁症,但它们主要集中在测量个体目前患有抑郁症的程度。在这项工作中,我们探讨了使用机器学习应用于纵向社会人口统计数据预测未来抑郁症的可能性。在这样做的过程中,我们表明,住房状况和家庭环境的细节等数据可以为预测未来的精神疾病提供线索。为此,我们引入了一种新的深度多任务递归神经网络来学习时间依赖性抑郁线索。该方法将抑郁预测任务与两个辅助异常排序任务进行联合优化,包括对比性单类特征排序和偏差排序。辅助任务解决了问题的两个关键挑战:1)抑郁样本的高类内方差:它们能够学习对抑郁样本的高度变化类内分布具有鲁棒性的表示;以及2)小标记数据量:它们显著地提高了预测模型的样本效率,这减少了对在实践中难以收集的大的抑郁标记数据集的依赖。对大规模儿童抑郁症数据的大量实证结果表明,我们的模型是样本有效的,可以准确地预测抑郁症发生前2-4年,大大优于8个代表性的比较。

英文摘要:

A wide variety of methods have been developed for identifying depression, but they focus primarily on measuring the degree to which individuals are suffering from depression currently. In this work we explore the possibility of predicting future depression using machine learning applied to longitudinal socio-demographic data. In doing so we show that data such as housing status, and the details of the family environment, can provide cues for predicting future psychiatric disorders. To this end, we introduce a novel deep multi-task recurrent neural network to learn time-dependent depression cues. The depression prediction task is jointly optimized with two auxiliary anomaly ranking tasks, including contrastive one-class feature ranking and deviation ranking. The auxiliary tasks address two key challenges of the problem: 1) the high within class variance of depression samples: they enable the learning of representations that are robust to highly variant in-class distribution of the depression samples; and 2) the small labeled data volume: they significantly enhance the sample efficiency of the prediction model, which reduces the reliance on large depression-labeled datasets that are difficult to collect in practice. Extensive empirical results on large-scale child depression data show that our model is sample-efficient and can accurately predict depression 2-4 years before the illness occurs, substantially outperforming eight representative comparators.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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