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arXiv 2012.00069stat.ME
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区域级时空泊松混合模型用于预测域计数和比例

Area-level spatio-temporal Poisson mixed models for predicting domain counts and proportions

M. Boubeta, M. J. Lombardía, F. Marey-Pérez, D. Morales

摘要:

本文介绍了具有时间和SAR(1)空间相关随机效应的区域级泊松混合模型。小面积预测的二分变量的比例和计数来自新的模型和相应的均方误差估计参数自助。本文说明了介绍的方法与实际数据的两个应用程序。第一个涉及2007-2008年期间加利西亚(西班牙)的森林火灾数据,目标是建模和预测火灾次数。第二个是2013年西班牙加利西亚生活条件调查的数据,目标是估计贫困线以下妇女的县比例。

英文摘要:

This paper introduces area-level Poisson mixed models with temporal and SAR(1) spatially correlated random effects. Small area predictors of the proportions and counts of a dichotomic variable are derived from the new models and the corresponding mean squared errors are estimated by parametric bootstrap. The paper illustrates the introduced methodology with two applications to real data. The first one deals with data of forest fires in Galicia (Spain) during 2007-2008 and the target is modeling and predicting counts of fires. The second one treats data from the Spanish living conditions survey of Galicia of 2013 and the target is the estimation of county proportions of women under the poverty line.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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