While considering the spatial and temporal features of traffic, capturing the impacts of various external factors on travel is an essential step towards achieving accurate traffic forecasting. However, existing studies seldom consider external factors or neglect the effect of the complex correlations among external factors on traffic. Intuitively, knowledge graphs can naturally describe these correlations. Since knowledge graphs and traffic networks are essentially heterogeneous networks, it is challenging to integrate the information in both networks. On this background, this study presents a knowledge representation-driven traffic forecasting method based on spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks. We first construct a knowledge graph for traffic forecasting and derive knowledge representations by a knowledge representation learning method named KR-EAR. Then, we propose the Knowledge Fusion Cell (KF-Cell) to combine the knowledge and traffic features as the input of a spatial-temporal graph convolutional backbone network. Experimental results on the real-world dataset show that our strategy enhances the forecasting performances of backbones at various prediction horizons. The ablation and perturbation analysis further verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that constructs and utilizes a knowledge graph to facilitate traffic forecasting; it also offers a promising direction to integrate external information and spatial-temporal information for traffic forecasting. The source code is available at https://github.com/lehaifeng/T-GCN/tree/master/KST-GCN.
Central South University（中南大学）；Hisense TransTech Co., Ltd.（海信网络科技股份有限公司）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）
Traffic forecasting is a fundamental and challenging task in the field of intelligent transportation. Accurate forecasting not only depends on the historical traffic flow information but also needs to consider the influence of a variety of external factors, such as weather conditions and surrounding POI distribution. Recently, spatiotemporal models integrating graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks have become traffic forecasting research hotspots and have made significant progress. However, few works integrate external factors. Therefore, based on the assumption that intro…
Accurate real-time traffic forecasting is a core technological problem against the implementation of the intelligent transportation system. However, it remains challenging considering the complex spatial and temporal dependencies among traffic flows. In the spatial dimension, due to the connectivity of the road network, the traffic flows between linked roads are closely related. In terms of the temporal factor, although there exists a tendency among adjacent time points in general, the importance of distant past points is not necessarily smaller than that of recent past points since traffic fl…
Traffic speed forecasting is one of the core problems in transportation systems. For a more accurate prediction, recent studies started using not only the temporal speed patterns but also the spatial information on the road network through the graph convolutional networks. Even though the road network is highly complex due to its non-Euclidean and directional characteristics, previous approaches mainly focused on modeling the spatial dependencies using the distance only. In this paper, we identify two essential spatial dependencies in traffic forecasting in addition to distance, direction and …
Central South University（中南大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Peking University（北京大学）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）
Accurate and real-time traffic forecasting plays an important role in the Intelligent Traffic System and is of great significance for urban traffic planning, traffic management, and traffic control. However, traffic forecasting has always been considered an open scientific issue, owing to the constraints of urban road network topological structure and the law of dynamic change with time, namely, spatial dependence and temporal dependence. To capture the spatial and temporal dependence simultaneously, we propose a novel neural network-based traffic forecasting method, the temporal graph convolu…
Southern Methodist University（南卫理公会大学）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory（美国国家航空航天局喷气推进实验室）
There recently has been a surge of interest in developing a new class of deep learning (DL) architectures that integrate an explicit time dimension as a fundamental building block of learning and representation mechanisms. In turn, many recent results show that topological descriptors of the observed data, encoding information on the shape of the dataset in a topological space at different scales, that is, persistent homology of the data, may contain important complementary information, improving both performance and robustness of DL. As convergence of these two emerging ideas, we propose to e…
Transformer with Koopman-Enhanced Graph Convolutional Network for Spatiotemporal Dynamics Forecasting
Charles F. Dolan School of Business, Fairfield University（Fairfield大学商学院）；Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, The University of Tennessee（田纳西大学工业与系统工程系）
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）
In traffic forecasting, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), which model traffic flows as spatio-temporal graphs, have achieved remarkable performance. However, existing GCN-based methods heuristically define the graph structure as the physical topology of the road network, ignoring potential dependence of the graph structure over traffic data. And the defined graph structure is deterministic, which lacks investigation of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (BSTGCN) for traffic prediction. The graph structure in our network is learned f…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）
Traffic prediction has gradually attracted the attention of researchers because of the increase in traffic big data. Therefore, how to mine the complex spatio-temporal correlations in traffic data to predict traffic conditions more accurately become a difficult problem. Previous works combined graph convolution networks (GCNs) and self-attention mechanism with deep time series models (e.g. recurrent neural networks) to capture the spatio-temporal correlations separately, ignoring the relationships across time and space. Besides, GCNs are limited by over-smoothing issue and self-attention is li…
Sapienza University of Rome（罗马第一大学）；University of Verona（维罗纳大学）
Pushing back the frontiers of collaborative robots in industrial environments, we propose a new Separable-Sparse Graph Convolutional Network (SeS-GCN) for pose forecasting. For the first time, SeS-GCN bottlenecks the interaction of the spatial, temporal and channel-wise dimensions in GCNs, and it learns sparse adjacency matrices by a teacher-student framework. Compared to the state-of-the-art, it only uses 1.72% of the parameters and it is ~4 times faster, while still performing comparably in forecasting accuracy on Human3.6M at 1 second in the future, which enables cobots to be aware of human…
The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；University of Utah（犹他大学）
The world is increasingly urbanizing and the building industry accounts for more than 40% of energy consumption in the United States. To improve urban sustainability, many cities adopt ambitious energy-saving strategies through retrofitting existing buildings and constructing new communities. In this situation, an accurate urban building energy model (UBEM) is the foundation to support the design of energy-efficient communities. However, current UBEM are limited in their abilities to capture the inter-building interdependency due to their dynamic and non-linear characteristics. Those models ei…
The construction of spatiotemporal networks using graph convolution networks (GCNs) has become one of the most popular methods for predicting traffic signals. However, when using a GCN for traffic speed prediction, the conventional approach generally assumes the relationship between the sensors as a homogeneous graph and learns an adjacency matrix using the data accumulated by the sensors. However, the spatial correlation between sensors is not specified as one but defined differently from various viewpoints. To this end, we aim to study the heterogeneous characteristics inherent in traffic si…
Traffic state prediction in a transportation network is paramount for effective traffic operations and management, as well as informed user and system-level decision-making. However, long-term traffic prediction (beyond 30 minutes into the future) remains challenging in current research. In this work, we integrate the spatio-temporal dependencies in the transportation network from network modeling, together with the graph convolutional network (GCN) and graph attention network (GAT). To further tackle the dramatic computation and memory cost caused by the giant model size (i.e., number of weig…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；Didi Research Institute, Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行滴滴研究院）
Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of spatial-temporal learning task in Intelligent Traffic System. Existing approaches capture spatial dependency with a pre-determined matrix in graph convolution neural operators. However, the explicit graph structure losses some hidden representations of relationships among nodes. Furthermore, traditional graph convolution neural operators cannot aggregate long-range nodes on the graph. To overcome these limits, we propose a novel network, Spatial-Temporal Adaptive graph convolution with Attention Network (STAAN) for traffic forecasting. Firstly, w…
College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University（浙江大学计算机科学与技术学院）；Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）
Traffic forecasting is of great importance to transportation management and public safety, and very challenging due to the complicated spatial-temporal dependency and essential uncertainty brought about by the road network and traffic conditions. Latest studies mainly focus on modeling the spatial dependency by utilizing graph convolutional networks (GCNs) throughout a fixed weighted graph. However, edges, i.e., the correlations between pair-wise nodes, are much more complicated and interact with each other. In this paper, we propose the Multi-Range Attentive Bicomponent GCN (MRA-BGCN), a nove…
Multi-Modal Graph Interaction for Multi-Graph Convolution Network in Urban Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Shandong University（山东大学）；Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）
University of Iowa（爱荷华大学）；Worcester Polytechnic Institute（伍斯特理工学院）
Speed-control forecasting, a challenging problem in driver behavior analysis, aims to predict the future actions of a driver in controlling vehicle speed such as braking or acceleration. In this paper, we try to address this challenge solely using egocentric video data, in contrast to the majority of works in the literature using either third-person view data or extra vehicle sensor data such as GPS, or both. To this end, we propose a novel graph convolutional network (GCN) based network, namely, EgoSpeed-Net. We are motivated by the fact that the position changes of objects over time can prov…
Joint Graph Convolution and Sequential Modeling for Scalable Network Traffic Estimation
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Brown University（布朗大学）；Northeastern University（东北大学）；Rochester Institute of Technology（罗切斯特理工学院）
Spatiotemporal Graph Transformer for Traffic Intelligence in Edge Computing
School of Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Southwest Jiaotong University（西南交通大学计算与人工智能学院）；SWJTU-Leeds Joint School, Southwest Jiaotong University（西南交通大学-利兹学院）；State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学网络与交换技术国家重点实验室）
Guangxi University（广西大学）；Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学）；Sichuan University（四川大学）
Accurate spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting is essential for helping traffic managers to take control measures and drivers to choose the optimal travel routes. Recently, graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have been widely used in traffic flow prediction owing to their powerful ability to capture spatial-temporal dependencies. The design of the spatial-temporal graph adjacency matrix is a key to the success of GCNs, and it is still an open question. This paper proposes reconstructing the binary adjacency matrix via tensor decomposition, and a traffic flow forecasting method is proposed.…
Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学）；The University of Auckland（奥克兰大学）
Traffic forecasting is an integral part of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Achieving a high prediction accuracy is a challenging task due to a high level of dynamics and complex spatial-temporal dependency of road networks. For this task, we propose Graph Attention-Convolution-Attention Networks (GACAN). The model uses a novel Att-Conv-Att (ACA) block which contains two graph attention layers and one spectral-based GCN layer sandwiched in between. The graph attention layers are meant to capture temporal features while the spectral-based GCN layer is meant to capture spatial features.…
Multi-spatial Multi-temporal Air Quality Forecasting with Integrated Monitoring and Reanalysis Data
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；Ningbo Institute of Digital Twin, Eastern Institute of Technology（东方理工高等研究院宁波数字孪生研究院）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Mälardalens University（梅拉达伦大学）
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院计算技术研究所）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Auburn University（奥本大学）
Traffic forecasting is important in intelligent transportation systems of webs and beneficial to traffic safety, yet is very challenging because of the complex and dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies in real-world traffic systems. Prior methods use the pre-defined or learnable static graph to extract spatial correlations. However, the static graph-based methods fail to mine the evolution of the traffic network. Researchers subsequently generate the dynamic graph for each time slice to reflect the changes of spatial correlations, but they follow the paradigm of independently modeling spatio-te…
STGformer: Efficient Spatiotemporal Graph Transformer for Traffic Forecasting
SUSTech-UTokyo Joint Research Center on Super Smart City（南方科技大学-东京大学超级智慧城市联合研究中心）；Research Institute of Trustworthy Autonomous Systems（可信自主系统研究院）；Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech)（南方科技大学）；School of Artificial Intelligence, Jilin University（吉林大学人工智能学院）；University of Tokyo（东京大学）
Accurately forecasting transportation demand is crucial for efficient urban traffic guidance, control and management. One solution to enhance the level of prediction accuracy is to leverage graph convolutional networks (GCN), a neural network based modelling approach with the ability to process data contained in graph based structures. As a powerful extension of GCN, a spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) aims to capture the relationship of data contained in the graphical nodes across both spatial and temporal dimensions, which presents a novel deep learning paradigm for the a…
COVID-19 has become a matter of serious concern over the last few years. It has adversely affected numerous people around the globe and has led to the loss of billions of dollars of business capital. In this paper, we propose a novel Spatial-Temporal Synchronous Graph Transformer network (STSGT) to capture the complex spatial and temporal dependency of the COVID-19 time series data and forecast the future status of an evolving pandemic. The layers of STSGT combine the graph convolution network (GCN) with the self-attention mechanism of transformers on a synchronous spatial-temporal graph to ca…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）
Traffic forecasting is a problem of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and crucial for individuals and public agencies. Therefore, researches pay great attention to deal with the complex spatio-temporal dependencies of traffic system for accurate forecasting. However, there are two challenges: 1) Most traffic forecasting studies mainly focus on modeling correlations of neighboring sensors and ignore correlations of remote sensors, e.g., business districts with similar spatio-temporal patterns; 2) Prior methods which use static adjacency matrix in graph convolutional networks (GCNs) are n…
Existing approaches to the crime prediction problem are unsuccessful in expressing the details since they assign the probability values to large regions. This paper introduces a new architecture with the graph convolutional networks (GCN) and multivariate Gaussian distributions to perform high-resolution forecasting that applies to any spatiotemporal data. We tackle the sparsity problem in high resolution by leveraging the flexible structure of GCNs and providing a subdivision algorithm. We build our model with Graph Convolutional Gated Recurrent Units (Graph-ConvGRU) to learn spatial, tempora…
In electricity markets, locational marginal price (LMP) forecasting is particularly important for market participants in making reasonable bidding strategies, managing potential trading risks, and supporting efficient system planning and operation. Unlike existing methods that only consider LMPs' temporal features, this paper tailors a spectral graph convolutional network (GCN) to greatly improve the accuracy of short-term LMP forecasting. A three-branch network structure is then designed to match the structure of LMPs' compositions. Such kind of network can extract the spatial-temporal featur…
China Mobile Research Institute（中国移动研究院）；Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）
Mobile network traffic forecasting is one of the key functions in daily network operation. A commercial mobile network is large, heterogeneous, complex and dynamic. These intrinsic features make mobile network traffic forecasting far from being solved even with recent advanced algorithms such as graph convolutional network-based prediction approaches and various attention mechanisms, which have been proved successful in vehicle traffic forecasting. In this paper, we cast the problem as a spatial-temporal sequence prediction task. We propose a novel deep learning network architecture, Adaptive …
Traffic forecasting has attracted widespread attention recently. In reality, traffic data usually contains missing values due to sensor or communication errors. The Spatio-temporal feature in traffic data brings more challenges for processing such missing values, for which the classic techniques (e.g., data imputations) are limited: 1) in temporal axis, the values can be randomly or consecutively missing; 2) in spatial axis, the missing values can happen on one single sensor or on multiple sensors simultaneously. Recent models powered by Graph Neural Networks achieved satisfying performance on…
Traffic forecasting influences various intelligent transportation system (ITS) services and is of great significance for user experience as well as urban traffic control. It is challenging due to the fact that the road network contains complex and time-varying spatial-temporal dependencies. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved promising results by adopting graph convolutional network (GCN) to extract the spatial correlations and recurrent neural network (RNN) to capture the temporal dependencies. However, the existing methods often construct the graph only based on road network …
UNSW（新南威尔士大学）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Griffith University（格里菲斯大学）
Modeling complex spatial and temporal correlations in the correlated time series data is indispensable for understanding the traffic dynamics and predicting the future status of an evolving traffic system. Recent works focus on designing complicated graph neural network architectures to capture shared patterns with the help of pre-defined graphs. In this paper, we argue that learning node-specific patterns is essential for traffic forecasting while the pre-defined graph is avoidable. To this end, we propose two adaptive modules for enhancing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) with new capabilit…
This paper presents a new approach for predicting team performance from the behavioral traces of a set of agents. This spatiotemporal forecasting problem is very relevant to sports analytics challenges such as coaching and opponent modeling. We demonstrate that our proposed model, Spatial Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (ST-GCN), outperforms other classification techniques at predicting game score from a short segment of player movement and game features. Our proposed architecture uses a graph convolutional network to capture the spatial relationships between team members and Gated Recur…
Devising and analyzing learning models for spatiotemporal network data is of importance for tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and multi-agent coordination, among others. Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNNs) are an established approach to learn from time-invariant network data. The graph convolution operation offers a principled approach to aggregate multiresolution information. However, extending the convolution principled learning and respective analysis to the spatiotemporal domain is challenging because spatiotemporal data have more intrinsic dependencies. Hence, a high…
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Survey, Mapping and Remote Sensing（测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室）
Traffic forecasting is crucial for urban traffic management and guidance. However, existing methods rarely exploit the time-frequency properties of traffic speed observations, and often neglect the propagation of traffic flows from upstream to downstream road segments. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach that learns the spatio-temporal dependency in traffic flows and predicts short-term traffic speeds on a road network. Specifically, we employ wavelet transform to decompose raw traffic data into several components with different frequency sub-bands. A Motif-based Graph Convolutional Re…
Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；Institute for Infocomm Research (I2R), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (ASTAR)（新加坡科技研究局资讯通信研究院（I2R））
Electric Vehicle (EV) charging demand and charging station availability forecasting is one of the challenges in the intelligent transportation system. With the accurate EV station situation prediction, suitable charging behaviors could be scheduled in advance to relieve range anxiety. Many existing deep learning methods are proposed to address this issue, however, due to the complex road network structure and comprehensive external factors, such as point of interests (POIs) and weather effects, many commonly used algorithms could just extract the historical usage information without considerin…
Huawei Technologies（华为技术有限公司）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）
Telecommunication networks play a critical role in modern society. With the arrival of 5G networks, these systems are becoming even more diversified, integrated, and intelligent. Traffic forecasting is one of the key components in such a system, however, it is particularly challenging due to the complex spatial-temporal dependency. In this work, we consider this problem from the aspect of a cellular network and the interactions among its base stations. We thoroughly investigate the characteristics of cellular network traffic and shed light on the dependency complexities based on data collected…
FourierGNN: Rethinking Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from a Pure Graph Perspective
Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学）；Tongji University（同济大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Macau（澳门大学）；HeFei University of Technology（合肥工业大学）；Macquarie University（麦考瑞大学）
Accurate short-term solar and wind power predictions play an important role in the planning and operation of power systems. However, the short-term power prediction of renewable energy has always been considered a complex regression problem, owing to the fluctuation and intermittence of output powers and the law of dynamic change with time due to local weather conditions, i.e. spatio-temporal correlation. To capture the spatio-temporal features simultaneously, this paper proposes a new graph neural network-based short-term power forecasting approach, which combines the graph convolutional netw…
