生产网络与战争
Production Networks and War
摘要：
战争等严重冲击如何改变经济？我们研究一个国家的生产网络是如何受到破坏性但局部冲突的影响。利用2014年俄乌危机开始时乌克兰铁路运输的独特交易层面数据，我们发现了冲突对企业的几种新的间接影响。首先，我们记录了大量的传播效应对企业间贸易-贸易下降，即使是在冲突地区以外的合作伙伴，如果其中一个与这些地区的冲突事件发生前的贸易。这种二级冲突效应的大小是一级效应的五分之一。忽视这种传播将导致低估冲突对贸易的总体影响约67%。第二，战争导致生产网络结构的突然变化，从而影响企业绩效。具体来说，我们发现，那些外部变得更加中心的公司-在冲突实际上切断了某些地区与乌克兰其他地区的联系-获得了相对的收入增长。最后，在一个生产网络模型中，我们分别估计了外生企业迁移和随后的内生网络调整对企业收入分配的影响。对于一个中等规模的企业，网络调整补偿了冲突发生后一年80%的网络破坏。
英文摘要：
How do severe shocks such as war alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. Using unique transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments around the start of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, we uncover several novel indirect effects of conflict on firms. First, we document substantial propagation effects on interfirm trade--trade declines even between partners outside the conflict areas if one of them had traded with those areas before the conflict events. The magnitude of such second-degree effect of conflict is one-fifth of the first-degree effect. Ignoring this propagation would lead to an underestimate of the total impact of conflict on trade by about 67\%. Second, war induces sudden changes in the production-network structure that influence firm performance. Specifically, we find that firms that exogenously became more central--after the conflict practically cut off certain regions from the rest of Ukraine--received a relative boost to their revenues. Finally, in a production-network model, we separately estimate the effects of the exogenous firm removal and the subsequent endogenous network adjustment on firm revenue distribution. For a median firm, network adjustment compensates for 80\% of the network destruction a year after the conflict onset.
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