arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2011.14075cs.CYcs.DScs.LGcs.SIstat.AP
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重复使用犯罪风险评估中的反馈效应

Feedback Effects in Repeat-Use Criminal Risk Assessments

Benjamin Laufer

摘要:

在刑事法律方面,风险评估算法被吹捧为数据驱动的、经过良好测试的工具。被称为验证测试的研究通常被从业者引用,以表明特定的风险评估算法具有预测准确性,建立风险组之间的合理差异,并在治疗中保持一定程度的群体公平性。为了建立这些重要的目标,大多数测试都使用一次性单点测量。使用波利亚瓮模型,我们探讨了反馈效应的影响,在顺序评分决策过程。我们通过模拟表明,风险可以传播的顺序决策的方式,不被一次性测试。例如,即使风险分配中的偏差非常小或不可检测,也会在连续的基于风险的决策中放大,导致在多次决策迭代后可观察到的群体差异。风险评估工具在一个高度复杂和路径依赖的过程中运作,充满了历史上的不平等。我们的结论是,从这项研究中,这些工具不能正确地考虑复合效应,并需要新的方法来开发和审计。

英文摘要:

In the criminal legal context, risk assessment algorithms are touted as data-driven, well-tested tools. Studies known as validation tests are typically cited by practitioners to show that a particular risk assessment algorithm has predictive accuracy, establishes legitimate differences between risk groups, and maintains some measure of group fairness in treatment. To establish these important goals, most tests use a one-shot, single-point measurement. Using a Polya Urn model, we explore the implication of feedback effects in sequential scoring-decision processes. We show through simulation that risk can propagate over sequential decisions in ways that are not captured by one-shot tests. For example, even a very small or undetectable level of bias in risk allocation can amplify over sequential risk-based decisions, leading to observable group differences after a number of decision iterations. Risk assessment tools operate in a highly complex and path-dependent process, fraught with historical inequity. We conclude from this study that these tools do not properly account for compounding effects, and require new approaches to development and auditing.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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