不确定非均质油气藏增产措施的多样性不确定性管理
Diversity Dependent Uncertainty Management for Hydrocarbon Stimulation in Uncertain Heterogeneous Reservoir with Improved Efficiency
摘要：
通过水力压裂的油气井增产的历史的特征在于追求针对储层性质的最优设计。然而，与许多工程系统一样，在这些确定性方法中没有考虑可变性和不确定性（在这种情况下是储层性质）的影响。我们提出了一个扩展的设计多样性的原则，其中的重点成为开发多个设计的最佳组合，而不是重复应用一个单一的设计。这种方法可以大大提高效率和降低风险时，设计系统的结果的可取性是可定义为一个平滑变化的效率和风险是相关的结果的方差与不确定的可变性的设计环境。对于油气井，我们证明了不同的设计组合可以将增产效率提高近四倍，并将与结果的可变性和不确定性相关的风险降低80%以上。因此，水力压裂优化从根本上取决于不确定性，并且朝着追求设计多样性的方法的改变可以对石油和天然气开发中的效率和风险以及成本和环境影响产生深远的影响。
英文摘要：
The history of oil and gas well stimulation through hydraulic fracturing is characterized by a pursuit of optimal designs tailored to reservoir properties. However, as with many engineering systems, the impact of variability and uncertainty (in this case of reservoir properties) is not accounted in these deterministic approaches. We propose an expansion of the principle of design diversity wherein the focus becomes developing optimal portfolio combinations of multiple designs rather than repeated application of a single design. This approach can substantially increase efficiency and decrease risk when designing systems where outcome desirability is definable as a smoothly-varying efficiency and where risk is related to the variance of outcomes tied to uncertain variability of the design environment. For the case of oil/gas wells, we demonstrate diverse portfolios of designs can improve stimulation efficiency by nearly a factor of four and cut risk associated with variability and uncertainty of outcomes by over 80%. Hydraulic fracturing optimization is therefore fundamentally dependent upon uncertainty, and a change of approach toward the pursuit of design diversity can have a profound impact on efficiency and risk, and in turn cost and environmental impacts, in oil and gas development.
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