We study a fundamental problem in Bayesian learning, where the goal is to select a set of data sources with minimum cost while achieving a certain learning performance based on the data streams provided by the selected data sources. First, we show that the data source selection problem for Bayesian learning is NP-hard. We then show that the data source selection problem can be transformed into an instance of the submodular set covering problem studied in the literature, and provide a standard greedy algorithm to solve the data source selection problem with provable performance guarantees. Next, we propose a fast greedy algorithm that improves the running times of the standard greedy algorithm, while achieving performance guarantees that are comparable to those of the standard greedy algorithm. The fast greedy algorithm can also be applied to solve the general submodular set covering problem with performance guarantees. Finally, we validate the theoretical results using numerical examples, and show that the greedy algorithms work well in practice.
In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and improper noninformative priors to be objective in the elicitation of parameter priors. Moreover, the penalty term of the rule is shown to be the sum of half of the parameter dimension and the estimated mutual information between parameter and observed data. This helps to reveal the EEF mechanism in selecting model orders and may provide new insights into the ope…
We present an Automatic Relevance Determination prior Bayesian Neural Network(BNN-ARD) weight l2-norm measure as a feature importance statistic for the model-x knockoff filter. We show on both simulated data and the Norwegian wind farm dataset that the proposed feature importance statistic yields statistically significant improvements relative to similar feature importance measures in both variable selection power and predictive performance on a real world dataset.
Univ Lyon, Ens de Lyon, Univ Claude Bernard, CNRS, Laboratoire de Physique（里昂大学，里昂高等师范学院，克洛德·贝尔纳大学，法国国家科学研究中心，物理实验室）；IRIT/INP-ENSEEIHT, University of Toulouse（图卢兹大学 IRIT/INP-ENSEEIHT）
Piecewise constant denoising can be solved either by deterministic optimization approaches, based on the Potts model, or by stochastic Bayesian procedures. The former lead to low computational time but require the selection of a regularization parameter, whose value significantly impacts the achieved solution, and whose automated selection remains an involved and challenging problem. Conversely, fully Bayesian formalisms encapsulate the regularization parameter selection into hierarchical models, at the price of high computational costs. This contribution proposes an operational strategy that …
Indiana University Network Science Institute（印第安纳大学网络科学研究所）
A central problem in analyzing networks is partitioning them into modules or communities. One of the best tools for this is the stochastic block model, which clusters vertices into blocks with statistically homogeneous pattern of links. Despite its flexibility and popularity, there has been a lack of principled statistical model selection criteria for the stochastic block model. Here we propose a Bayesian framework for choosing the number of blocks as well as comparing it to the more elaborate degree- corrected block models, ultimately leading to a universal model selection framework capable o…
We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency under relatively mild conditions on the design matrix. We then demonstrate that the statistical criterion of posterior concentration need not imply the computational desideratum of rapid mixing of the MCMC algorithm. By introducing a truncated sparsity prior for variable selection, we provide a set of conditions that guarantee both variable-selection consiste…
This work develops rigorous theoretical basis for the fact that deep Bayesian neural network (BNN) is an effective tool for high-dimensional variable selection with rigorous uncertainty quantification. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric theorems to show that a properly configured deep BNN (1) learns the variable importance effectively in high dimensions, and its learning rate can sometimes "break" the curse of dimensionality. (2) BNN's uncertainty quantification for variable importance is rigorous, in the sense that its 95% credible intervals for variable importance indeed covers the truth…
Bayesian Model Selection of Lithium-Ion Battery Models via Bayesian Quadrature
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；German Aerospace Center (DLR)（德国航空航天中心）；Helmholtz Institute Ulm（亥姆霍兹乌尔姆研究所）；Universität Ulm（乌尔姆大学）；The Faraday Institution（法拉第研究所）
Integration over non-negative integrands is a central problem in machine learning (e.g. for model averaging, (hyper-)parameter marginalisation, and computing posterior predictive distributions). Bayesian Quadrature is a probabilistic numerical integration technique that performs promisingly when compared to traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. However, in contrast to easily-parallelised MCMC methods, Bayesian Quadrature methods have, thus far, been essentially serial in nature, selecting a single point to sample at each step of the algorithm. We deliver methods to select batches of po…
University of Warwick（华威大学）；The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science & AI（艾伦·图灵数据科学与人工智能研究所）
Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs) and give an upper bound on the approximation error of such models. The resulting algorithm performs prediction, model selection and CP detection on-line. Its time complexity is linear and its space complexity constant, and thus it is two orders of magnitudes faster than its closest competitor. In addition, it outperforms the state of the art for multivariate …
Rice University（莱斯大学）；Department of Statistics（统计系）
Subset selection is a valuable tool for interpretable learning, scientific discovery, and data compression. However, classical subset selection is often avoided due to selection instability, lack of regularization, and difficulties with post-selection inference. We address these challenges from a Bayesian perspective. Given any Bayesian predictive model $\mathcal{M}$, we extract a family of near-optimal subsets of variables for linear prediction or classification. This strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset and instead advances the broader perspective that often many subsets …
Feature selection in reinforcement learning (RL), i.e. choosing basis functions such that useful approximations of the unkown value function can be obtained, is one of the main challenges in scaling RL to real-world applications. Here we consider the Gaussian process based framework GPTD for approximate policy evaluation, and propose feature selection through marginal likelihood optimization of the associated hyperparameters. Our approach has two appealing benefits: (1) given just sample transitions, we can solve the policy evaluation problem fully automatically (without looking at the learnin…
In many real-world scenarios where data is high dimensional, test time acquisition of features is a non-trivial task due to costs associated with feature acquisition and evaluating feature value. The need for highly confident models with an extremely frugal acquisition of features can be addressed by allowing a feature selection method to become target aware. We introduce an approach to feature selection that is based on Bayesian learning, allowing us to report target-specific levels of uncertainty, false positive, and false negative rates. In addition, measuring uncertainty lifts the restrict…
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed dimension and the log-posterior density is differentiable with respect to the parameters. This paper proposes an extended stochastic gradient MCMC lgoriathm which, by introducing appropriate latent variables, can be applied to more general large-scale Bayesian computing problems, such as those involving dimension jumping and missing data. Numerical studies show…
NEC Laboratories America（美国 NEC 实验室）；University of Tokyo（东京大学）
This paper addresses the issue of model selection for hidden Markov models (HMMs). We generalize factorized asymptotic Bayesian inference (FAB), which has been recently developed for model selection on independent hidden variables (i.e., mixture models), for time-dependent hidden variables. As with FAB in mixture models, FAB for HMMs is derived as an iterative lower bound maximization algorithm of a factorized information criterion (FIC). It inherits, from FAB for mixture models, several desirable properties for learning HMMs, such as asymptotic consistency of FIC with marginal log-likelihood,…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
We develop a closed form asymptotic formula to compute the marginal likelihood of data given a naive Bayesian network model with two hidden states and binary features. This formula deviates from the standard BIC score. Our work provides a concrete example that the BIC score is generally not valid for statistical models that belong to a stratified exponential family. This stands in contrast to linear and curved exponential families, where the BIC score has been proven to provide a correct approximation for the marginal likelihood.
Center for Information Security Technology (CIST), Korea University（高丽大学信息安全技术中心(CIST)）；Korea University（高丽大学）
In order to cluster or partition data, we often use Expectation-and-Maximization (EM) or Variational approximation with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which is a parametric probability density function represented as a weighted sum of $\hat{K}$ Gaussian component densities. However, model selection to find underlying $\hat{K}$ is one of the key concerns in GMM clustering, since we can obtain the desired clusters only when $\hat{K}$ is known. In this paper, we propose a new model selection algorithm to explore $\hat{K}$ in a Bayesian framework. The proposed algorithm builds the density of the …
Optimal Bayesian feature selection (OBFS) is a multivariate supervised screening method designed from the ground up for biomarker discovery. In this work, we prove that Gaussian OBFS is strongly consistent under mild conditions, and provide rates of convergence for key posteriors in the framework. These results are of enormous importance, since they identify precisely what features are selected by OBFS asymptotically, characterize the relative rates of convergence for posteriors on different types of features, provide conditions that guarantee convergence, justify the use of OBFS when its inte…
Identifying small subsets of features that are relevant for prediction and/or classification tasks is a central problem in machine learning and statistics. The feature selection task is especially important, and computationally difficult, for modern datasets where the number of features can be comparable to, or even exceed, the number of samples. Here, we show that feature selection with Bayesian inference takes a universal form and reduces to calculating the magnetizations of an Ising model, under some mild conditions. Our results exploit the observation that the evidence takes a universal fo…
Heuristics in theorem provers are often parameterised. Modern theorem provers such as Vampire utilise a wide array of heuristics to control the search space explosion, thereby requiring optimisation of a large set of parameters. An exhaustive search in this multi-dimensional parameter space is intractable in most cases, yet the performance of the provers is highly dependent on the parameter assignment. In this work, we introduce a principled probablistic framework for heuristics optimisation in theorem provers. We present results using a heuristic for premise selection and The Archive of Forma…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chosen model will be used in the future for prediction tasks involving more ``focused' predictive distributions. Although focused predictive distributions can be produced from the joint probability distribution by marginalization, in practice the best model in the unsupervised sense …
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a class of popular methods for expensive black-box optimization, and has been widely applied to many scenarios. However, BO suffers from the curse of dimensionality, and scaling it to high-dimensional problems is still a challenge. In this paper, we propose a variable selection method MCTS-VS based on Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS), to iteratively select and optimize a subset of variables. That is, MCTS-VS constructs a low-dimensional subspace via MCTS and optimizes in the subspace with any BO algorithm. We give a theoretical analysis of the general variable selec…
The goal of this paper is to compare several widely used Bayesian model selection methods in practical model selection problems, highlight their differences and give recommendations about the preferred approaches. We focus on the variable subset selection for regression and classification and perform several numerical experiments using both simulated and real world data. The results show that the optimization of a utility estimate such as the cross-validation (CV) score is liable to finding overfitted models due to relatively high variance in the utility estimates when the data is scarce. This…
It is often stated in papers tackling the task of inferring Bayesian network structures from data that there are these two distinct approaches: (i) Apply conditional independence tests when testing for the presence or otherwise of edges; (ii) Search the model space using a scoring metric. Here I argue that for complete data and a given node ordering this division is a myth, by showing that cross entropy methods for checking conditional independence are mathematically identical to methods based upon discriminating between models by their overall goodness-of-fit logarithmic scores.
Max Planck Institute for Molecular Genetics（马克斯·普朗克分子遗传学研究所）
We present a Bayesian method for feature selection in the presence of grouping information with sparsity on the between- and within group level. Instead of using a stochastic algorithm for parameter inference, we employ expectation propagation, which is a deterministic and fast algorithm. Available methods for feature selection in the presence of grouping information have a number of short-comings: on one hand, lasso methods, while being fast, underestimate the regression coefficients and do not make good use of the grouping information, and on the other hand, Bayesian approaches, while accura…
Testing-driven Variable Selection in Bayesian Modal Regression
Department of Statistics, University of South Carolina（南卡罗来纳大学统计学系）；Division of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Memphis（孟菲斯大学公共卫生学院流行病学与生物统计学系）
