arXiv 2011.106812020-11-20eess.SYcs.SY

需求响应程序中基线操纵的分析与评价

Analysis and Evaluation of Baseline Manipulation in Demand Response Programs

Xiaochu Wang, Wenyuan Tang

摘要：

在基于基线的需求响应（DR）计划中，需要客户基线来为参与者分配折扣。平均基线法因其简单可靠而在实践中被广泛接受。然而，客户的基线操纵是鲜为人知的文献。我们从客户的角度出发，建立了一个马尔可夫决策过程来模拟客户的收益最大化问题。揭示了理性顾客在DR日消费不足和非DR日消费过度的行为。此外，我们提出了一个近似的基线方法，并显示如何消耗分布和程序参数影响的结果。由于维数灾难，线性策略为基础的推出算法，以获得一个实用的近似解。最后，进行了案例研究，以说明基线操纵，仿真结果证实了所提出的方法的有效性，并阐明了如何正确设计基线方法。

英文摘要：

The customer baseline is required to assign rebates to participants in baseline-based demand response (DR) programs. The average baseline method has been widely accepted in practice due to its simplicity and reliability. However, the customer's baseline manipulation is little-known in the literature. We start from a customer's perspective and establish a Markov decision process to model the customer's payoff-maximizing problem. The behavior of a rational customer's underconsumption on DR days and overconsumption on non-DR days are revealed. Furthermore, we propose an approximated baseline method and show how the consumption distribution and program parameters affect the results. Due to the curse of dimensionality, a linear policy-based rollout algorithm is introduced to obtain a practical approximate solution. Finally, a case study is carried out to illustrate the baseline manipulation, where the simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed methods and shed light on how to properly design baseline methods.

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英文摘要：

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