Max-Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Univ. Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔大学）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Grenoble INP（格勒诺布尔理工学院）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
Online forecasting under a changing environment has been a problem of increasing importance in many real-world applications. In this paper, we consider the meta-algorithm presented in \citet{zhang2017dynamic} combined with different subroutines. We show that an expected cumulative error of order $\tilde{O}(n^{1/3} C_n^{2/3})$ can be obtained for non-stationary online linear regression where the total variation of parameter sequence is bounded by $C_n$. Our paper extends the result of online forecasting of one-dimensional time-series as proposed in \cite{baby2019online} to general $d$-dimensional non-stationary linear regression. We improve the rate $O(\sqrt{n C_n})$ obtained by Zhang et al. 2017 and Besbes et al. 2015. We further extend our analysis to non-stationary online kernel regression. Similar to the non-stationary online regression case, we use the meta-procedure of Zhang et al. 2017 combined with Kernel-AWV (Jezequel et al. 2020) to achieve an expected cumulative controlled by the effective dimension of the RKHS and the total variation of the sequence. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first extension of non-stationary online regression to non-stationary kernel regression. Lastly, we evaluate our method empirically with several existing benchmarks and also compare it with the theoretical bound obtained in this paper.
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We introduce a kernel-based method to estimate the time-varying regression function and provide asymptotic theory for our estimates. Moreover, we show that the main conditions of the theory are satisfied for a large class of nonlinear autoregressive processes with a time-varying regression function. Finally, we examine structured models where the regression fu…
We study online prediction of bounded stationary ergodic processes. To do so, we consider the setting of prediction of individual sequences and build a deterministic regression tree that performs asymptotically as well as the best L-Lipschitz constant predictors. Then, we show why the obtained regret bound entails the asymptotical optimality with respect to the class of bounded stationary ergodic processes.
Penn State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
Computational efficiency is an important consideration for deploying machine learning models for time series prediction in an online setting. Machine learning algorithms adjust model parameters automatically based on the data, but often require users to set additional parameters, known as hyperparameters. Hyperparameters can significantly impact prediction accuracy. Traffic measurements, typically collected online by sensors, are serially correlated. Moreover, the data distribution may change gradually. A typical adaptation strategy is periodically re-tuning the model hyperparameters, at the c…
We consider online optimization procedures in the context of logistic regression, focusing on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). We introduce a second-order algorithm close to the EKF, named Semi-Online Step (SOS), for which we prove a O(log(n)) regret in the adversarial setting, paving the way to similar results for the EKF. This regret bound on SOS is the first for such parameter-free algorithm in the adversarial logistic regression. We prove for the EKF in constant dynamics a O(log(n)) regret in expectation and in the well-specified logistic regression model.
We establish optimal rates for online regression for arbitrary classes of regression functions in terms of the sequential entropy introduced in (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tewari, 2010). The optimal rates are shown to exhibit a phase transition analogous to the i.i.d./statistical learning case, studied in (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tsybakov 2013). In the frequently encountered situation when sequential entropy and i.i.d. empirical entropy match, our results point to the interesting phenomenon that the rates for statistical learning with squared loss and online nonparametric regression are the same. In addi…
University of Potsdam（波茨坦大学）；Centre de Recherche INRIA de Paris（法国国家信息与自动化研究所巴黎研究中心）；IRT Saint Exupéry（圣埃克苏佩里技术研究院）；Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse（图卢兹数学研究所）
In this work we investigate the variation of the online kernelized ridge regression algorithm in the setting of $d-$dimensional adversarial nonparametric regression. We derive the regret upper bounds on the classes of Sobolev spaces $W_{p}^β(\mathcal{X})$, $p\geq 2, β>\frac{d}{p}$. The upper bounds are supported by the minimax regret analysis, which reveals that in the cases $β> \frac{d}{2}$ or $p=\infty$ these rates are (essentially) optimal. Finally, we compare the performance of the kernelized ridge regression forecaster to the known non-parametric forecasters in terms of the regret rates a…
We consider the problem of online linear regression on arbitrary deterministic sequences when the ambient dimension d can be much larger than the number of time rounds T. We introduce the notion of sparsity regret bound, which is a deterministic online counterpart of recent risk bounds derived in the stochastic setting under a sparsity scenario. We prove such regret bounds for an online-learning algorithm called SeqSEW and based on exponential weighting and data-driven truncation. In a second part we apply a parameter-free version of this algorithm to the stochastic setting (regression model w…
INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；PSL Research University（巴黎文理研究大学）；Univ. Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Grenoble INP（格勒诺布尔国立理工学院）；LJK（约瑟夫·傅立叶实验室）
Mixability has been shown to be a powerful tool to obtain algorithms with optimal regret. However, the resulting methods often suffer from high computational complexity which has reduced their practical applicability. For example, in the case of multiclass logistic regression, the aggregating forecaster (Foster et al. (2018)) achieves a regret of $O(\log(Bn))$ whereas Online Newton Step achieves $O(e^B\log(n))$ obtaining a double exponential gain in $B$ (a bound on the norm of comparative functions). However, this high statistical performance is at the price of a prohibitive computational comp…
Non-stationarity appears in many online applications such as web search and advertising. In this paper, we study the online learning to rank problem in a non-stationary environment where user preferences change abruptly at an unknown moment in time. We consider the problem of identifying the K most attractive items and propose cascading non-stationary bandits, an online learning variant of the cascading model, where a user browses a ranked list from top to bottom and clicks on the first attractive item. We propose two algorithms for solving this non-stationary problem: CascadeDUCB and CascadeS…
EPFL（洛桑联邦理工学院）；Universitá degli Studi di Milano（米兰大学）
We study algorithms for online nonparametric regression that learn the directions along which the regression function is smoother. Our algorithm learns the Mahalanobis metric based on the gradient outer product matrix $\boldsymbol{G}$ of the regression function (automatically adapting to the effective rank of this matrix), while simultaneously bounding the regret ---on the same data sequence--- in terms of the spectrum of $\boldsymbol{G}$. As a preliminary step in our analysis, we extend a nonparametric online learning algorithm by Hazan and Megiddo enabling it to compete against functions who…
INRIA - Département d’Informatique de l’École Normale Supérieure（法国国家信息与自动化研究所 - 巴黎高等师范学院信息学系）；PSL Research University（巴黎文理研究大学）
We consider the setting of online logistic regression and consider the regret with respect to the 2-ball of radius B. It is known (see [Hazan et al., 2014]) that any proper algorithm which has logarithmic regret in the number of samples (denoted n) necessarily suffers an exponential multiplicative constant in B. In this work, we design an efficient improper algorithm that avoids this exponential constant while preserving a logarithmic regret. Indeed, [Foster et al., 2018] showed that the lower bound does not apply to improper algorithms and proposed a strategy based on exponential weights with…
The emerging field of learning-augmented online algorithms uses ML techniques to predict future input parameters and thereby improve the performance of online algorithms. Since these parameters are, in general, real-valued functions, a natural approach is to use regression techniques to make these predictions. We introduce this approach in this paper, and explore it in the context of a general online search framework that captures classic problems like (generalized) ski rental, bin packing, minimum makespan scheduling, etc. We show nearly tight bounds on the sample complexity of this regressio…
We consider the problem of online linear regression on individual sequences. The goal in this paper is for the forecaster to output sequential predictions which are, after $T$ time rounds, almost as good as the ones output by the best linear predictor in a given $\ell^1$-ball in $\\R^d$. We consider both the cases where the dimension~$d$ is small and large relative to the time horizon $T$. We first present regret bounds with optimal dependencies on $d$, $T$, and on the sizes $U$, $X$ and $Y$ of the $\ell^1$-ball, the input data and the observations. The minimax regret is shown to exhibit a reg…
We consider the problem of online linear regression in the stochastic setting. We derive high probability regret bounds for online ridge regression and the forward algorithm. This enables us to compare online regression algorithms more accurately and eliminate assumptions of bounded observations and predictions. Our study advocates for the use of the forward algorithm in lieu of ridge due to its enhanced bounds and robustness to the regularization parameter. Moreover, we explain how to integrate it in algorithms involving linear function approximation to remove a boundedness assumption without…
We consider Online Convex Optimization (OCO) in the setting where the costs are $m$-strongly convex and the online learner pays a switching cost for changing decisions between rounds. We show that the recently proposed Online Balanced Descent (OBD) algorithm is constant competitive in this setting, with competitive ratio $3 + O(1/m)$, irrespective of the ambient dimension. Additionally, we show that when the sequence of cost functions is $ε$-smooth, OBD has near-optimal dynamic regret and maintains strong per-round accuracy. We demonstrate the generality of our approach by showing that the OBD…
Function plays an important role in mathematics and many science branches. As the fast development of computer technology, more and more study on computational function analysis, e.g., Fast Fourier Transform, Wavelet Transform, Curve Function, are presented in these years. However, there are two main problems in these approaches: 1) hard to handle the complex functions of stationary and non-stationary, periodic and non-periodic, high order and low order; 2) hard to generalize the fitting functions from training data to test data. In this paper, a multiple regression based function fitting netw…
The Roslin Institute（罗斯林研究所）；The University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；University of Bergen（卑尔根大学）
The lasso and elastic net linear regression models impose a double-exponential prior distribution on the model parameters to achieve regression shrinkage and variable selection, allowing the inference of robust models from large data sets. However, there has been limited success in deriving estimates for the full posterior distribution of regression coefficients in these models, due to a need to evaluate analytically intractable partition function integrals. Here, the Fourier transform is used to express these integrals as complex-valued oscillatory integrals over "regression frequencies". Thi…
We consider the problem of online adaptation of a neural network designed to represent vehicle dynamics. The neural network model is intended to be used by an MPC control law to autonomously control the vehicle. This problem is challenging because both the input and target distributions are non-stationary, and naive approaches to online adaptation result in catastrophic forgetting, which can in turn lead to controller failures. We present a novel online learning method, which combines the pseudo-rehearsal method with locally weighted projection regression. We demonstrate the effectiveness of t…
Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工大学）；George Mason University（乔治梅森大学）；U. S. Army Corps of Engineers（美国陆军工程兵团）
The presence of data corruption in user-generated streaming data, such as social media, motivates a new fundamental problem that learns reliable regression coefficient when features are not accessible entirely at one time. Until now, several important challenges still cannot be handled concurrently: 1) corrupted data estimation when only partial features are accessible; 2) online feature selection when data contains adversarial corruption; and 3) scaling to a massive dataset. This paper proposes a novel RObust regression algorithm via Online Feature Selection (\textit{RoOFS}) that concurrently…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
We consider the problem of online active learning to collect data for regression modeling. Specifically, we consider a decision maker with a limited experimentation budget who must efficiently learn an underlying linear population model. Our main contribution is a novel threshold-based algorithm for selection of most informative observations; we characterize its performance and fundamental lower bounds. We extend the algorithm and its guarantees to sparse linear regression in high-dimensional settings. Simulations suggest the algorithm is remarkably robust: it provides significant benefits ove…
University of Texas, Austin（得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Facebook Inc.（脸书公司）
Large scale deep learning provides a tremendous opportunity to improve the quality of content recommendation systems by employing both wider and deeper models, but this comes at great infrastructural cost and carbon footprint in modern data centers. Pruning is an effective technique that reduces both memory and compute demand for model inference. However, pruning for online recommendation systems is challenging due to the continuous data distribution shift (a.k.a non-stationary data). Although incremental training on the full model is able to adapt to the non-stationary data, directly applying…
Multiclass logistic regression is a fundamental task in machine learning with applications in classification and boosting. Previous work (Foster et al., 2018) has highlighted the importance of improper predictors for achieving "fast rates" in the online multiclass logistic regression problem without suffering exponentially from secondary problem parameters, such as the norm of the predictors in the comparison class. While Foster et al. (2018) introduced a statistically optimal algorithm, it is in practice computationally intractable due to its run-time complexity being a large polynomial in th…
University of Padova（帕多瓦大学）；ENSTA Paris（巴黎高等先进技术学院）；Institut Polytechnique de Paris（巴黎理工学院）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）
This paper presents a new regularization approach -- termed OpReg-Boost -- to boost the convergence and lessen the asymptotic error of online optimization and learning algorithms. In particular, the paper considers online algorithms for optimization problems with a time-varying (weakly) convex composite cost. For a given online algorithm, OpReg-Boost learns the closest algorithmic map that yields linear convergence; to this end, the learning procedure hinges on the concept of operator regression. We show how to formalize the operator regression problem and propose a computationally-efficient P…
Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago（芝加哥丰田技术研究所）；The Technion（以色列理工学院）；Università degli Studi di Milano（米兰大学）
Online learning algorithms are fast, memory-efficient, easy to implement, and applicable to many prediction problems, including classification, regression, and ranking. Several online algorithms were proposed in the past few decades, some based on additive updates, like the Perceptron, and some on multiplicative updates, like Winnow. A unifying perspective on the design and the analysis of online algorithms is provided by online mirror descent, a general prediction strategy from which most first-order algorithms can be obtained as special cases. We generalize online mirror descent to time-vary…
EDF R&D（法国电力研发中心）；HEC Paris（巴黎高等商学院）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse, Université Paul Sabatier（保罗·萨巴捷大学图卢兹数学研究所）
We consider the problem of online nonparametric regression with arbitrary deterministic sequences. Using ideas from the chaining technique, we design an algorithm that achieves a Dudley-type regret bound similar to the one obtained in a non-constructive fashion by Rakhlin and Sridharan (2014). Our regret bound is expressed in terms of the metric entropy in the sup norm, which yields optimal guarantees when the metric and sequential entropies are of the same order of magnitude. In particular our algorithm is the first one that achieves optimal rates for online regression over H{ö}lder balls. In…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）
This paper establishes minimax rates for online regression with arbitrary classes of functions and general losses. We show that below a certain threshold for the complexity of the function class, the minimax rates depend on both the curvature of the loss function and the sequential complexities of the class. Above this threshold, the curvature of the loss does not affect the rates. Furthermore, for the case of square loss, our results point to the interesting phenomenon: whenever sequential and i.i.d. empirical entropies match, the rates for statistical and online learning are the same. In add…
University of São Paulo（圣保罗大学）；State University of Londrina（隆德里纳州立大学）
One of the current challenges in machine learning is how to deal with data coming at increasing rates in data streams. New predictive learning strategies are needed to cope with the high throughput data and concept drift. One of the data stream mining tasks where new learning strategies are needed is multi-target regression, due to its applicability in a high number of real world problems. While reliable and effective learning strategies have been proposed for batch multi-target regression, few have been proposed for multi-target online learning in data streams. Besides, most of the existing s…
Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Amazon（亚马逊）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Yahoo Research（雅虎研究院）
Online sparse linear regression is an online problem where an algorithm repeatedly chooses a subset of coordinates to observe in an adversarially chosen feature vector, makes a real-valued prediction, receives the true label, and incurs the squared loss. The goal is to design an online learning algorithm with sublinear regret to the best sparse linear predictor in hindsight. Without any assumptions, this problem is known to be computationally intractable. In this paper, we make the assumption that data matrix satisfies restricted isometry property, and show that this assumption leads to comput…
The Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
The goal of a learner, in standard online learning, is to have the cumulative loss not much larger compared with the best-performing function from some fixed class. Numerous algorithms were shown to have this gap arbitrarily close to zero, compared with the best function that is chosen off-line. Nevertheless, many real-world applications, such as adaptive filtering, are non-stationary in nature, and the best prediction function may drift over time. We introduce two novel algorithms for online regression, designed to work well in non-stationary environment. Our first algorithm performs adaptive…
Institute for Electrical Engineering in Medicine, Universität zu Lübeck（吕贝克大学医用电工研究所）
The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to large data sets is limited due to heavy memory and computational requirements. A variety of methods has been proposed to enable scalability, one of which is to exploit structure in the kernel matrix. Previous methods, however, cannot easily deal with non-stationary processes. This paper presents an efficient GP framework, that extends structured kernel interpolation methods to GPs with a non-stationary phase. We particularly treat mixtures of non-stationary processes, which are commonly used in the context of separation problems e.g. in biomedical…
IBM Research-China（IBM中国研究院）；Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（南京信息工程大学）；East China Normal University（华东师范大学）
Online multiple-output regression is an important machine learning technique for modeling, predicting, and compressing multi-dimensional correlated data streams. In this paper, we propose a novel online multiple-output regression method, called MORES, for stream data. MORES can \emph{dynamically} learn the structure of the coefficients change in each update step to facilitate the model's continuous refinement. We observe that limited expressive ability of the regression model, especially in the preliminary stage of online update, often leads to the variables in the residual errors being depend…
Online convex optimization is a sequential prediction framework with the goal to track and adapt to the environment through evaluating proper convex loss functions. We study efficient particle filtering methods from the perspective of such a framework. We formulate an efficient particle filtering methods for the non-stationary environment by making connections with the online mirror descent algorithm which is known to be a universal online convex optimization algorithm. As a result of this connection, our proposed particle filtering algorithm proves to achieve optimal particle efficiency.
University of Cantabria（坎塔布里亚大学）；CIBER-BBN（西班牙生物医学、生物工程和纳米医学研究中心联盟）；University of Zaragoza（萨拉戈萨大学）；Universidad Carlos III de Madrid（马德里卡洛斯三世大学）
We study the relationship between online Gaussian process (GP) regression and kernel least mean squares (KLMS) algorithms. While the latter have no capacity of storing the entire posterior distribution during online learning, we discover that their operation corresponds to the assumption of a fixed posterior covariance that follows a simple parametric model. Interestingly, several well-known KLMS algorithms correspond to specific cases of this model. The probabilistic perspective allows us to understand how each of them handles uncertainty, which could explain some of their performance differe…
School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences（物理与数学科学学院）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）
Active regression considers a linear regression problem where the learner receives a large number of data points but can only observe a small number of labels. Since online algorithms can deal with incremental training data and take advantage of low computational cost, we consider an online extension of the active regression problem: the learner receives data points one by one and immediately decides whether it should collect the corresponding labels. The goal is to efficiently maintain the regression of received data points with a small budget of label queries. We propose novel algorithms for…
This paper considers online convex optimization (OCO) problems - the paramount framework for online learning algorithm design. The loss function of learning task in OCO setting is based on streaming data so that OCO is a powerful tool to model large scale applications such as online recommender systems. Meanwhile, real-world data are usually of extreme high-dimensional due to modern feature engineering techniques so that the quadratic regression is impractical. Factorization Machine as well as its variants are efficient models for capturing feature interactions with low-rank matrix model but t…
Harvard University（哈佛大学）；Harvard Business School（哈佛商学院）
This paper notes a simple connection between synthetic control and online learning. Specifically, we recognize synthetic control as an instance of Follow-The-Leader (FTL). Standard results in online convex optimization then imply that, even when outcomes are chosen by an adversary, synthetic control predictions of counterfactual outcomes for the treated unit perform almost as well as an oracle weighted average of control units' outcomes. Synthetic control on differenced data performs almost as well as oracle weighted difference-in-differences, potentially making it an attractive choice in prac…
We consider the online sparse linear regression problem, which is the problem of sequentially making predictions observing only a limited number of features in each round, to minimize regret with respect to the best sparse linear regressor, where prediction accuracy is measured by square loss. We give an inefficient algorithm that obtains regret bounded by $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ after $T$ prediction rounds. We complement this result by showing that no algorithm running in polynomial time per iteration can achieve regret bounded by $O(T^{1-δ})$ for any constant $δ> 0$ unless $\text{NP} \subseteq…
University of Notre Dame（圣母大学）；University of Hawaii（夏威夷大学）
Federated learning (FL) literature typically assumes that each client has a fixed amount of data, which is unrealistic in many practical applications. Some recent works introduced a framework for online FL (Online-Fed) wherein clients perform model learning on streaming data and communicate the model to the server; however, they do not address the associated communication overhead. As a solution, this paper presents a partial-sharing-based online federated learning framework (PSO-Fed) that enables clients to update their local models using continuous streaming data and share only portions of t…
We extend the theory of boosting for regression problems to the online learning setting. Generalizing from the batch setting for boosting, the notion of a weak learning algorithm is modeled as an online learning algorithm with linear loss functions that competes with a base class of regression functions, while a strong learning algorithm is an online learning algorithm with convex loss functions that competes with a larger class of regression functions. Our main result is an online gradient boosting algorithm which converts a weak online learning algorithm into a strong one where the larger cl…
