科罗拉多州的背景：国会重新划分和竞争科罗拉多州的公平标准
Colorado in Context: Congressional Redistricting and Competing Fairness Criteria in Colorado
摘要：
在本文中，我们采用集成分析技术，了解在科罗拉多州的国会代表的政治基线。我们生成了一个大的随机样本的合理的选区重新划分计划，并确定每个地区的党派平衡使用从全州范围内的选举在2018年的回报，并在此背景下分析2011/2012年颁布的地区。科罗拉多州最近通过了一个新的选区划分框架，成立了一个独立的委员会来划定选区边界，禁止党派偏见和在职考虑，要求尽可能保留政治边界（如县），并要求地图制作者最大限度地增加竞争选区的数量。我们调查党派结果之间的关系，分裂的县的数量，以及在一个计划中的竞争区的数量。本文还介绍了两种新的改进方法-一个更严格的统计框架，了解必要的样本量，和加权图的方法生成随机计划，分裂约少县可接受的人画的地图。
英文摘要：
In this paper, we apply techniques of ensemble analysis to understand the political baseline for Congressional representation in Colorado. We generate a large random sample of reasonable redistricting plans and determine the partisan balance of each district using returns from state-wide elections in 2018, and analyze the 2011/2012 enacted districts in this context. Colorado recently adopted a new framework for redistricting, creating an independent commission to draw district boundaries, prohibiting partisan bias and incumbency considerations, requiring that political boundaries (such as counties) be preserved as much as possible, and also requiring that mapmakers maximize the number of competitive districts. We investigate the relationships between partisan outcomes, number of counties which are split, and number of competitive districts in a plan. This paper also features two novel improvements in methodology--a more rigorous statistical framework for understanding necessary sample size, and a weighted-graph method for generating random plans which split approximately as few counties as acceptable human-drawn maps.
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