Inspired by the developments in deep generative models, we propose a model-based RL approach, coined Reinforced Deep Markov Model (RDMM), designed to integrate desirable properties of a reinforcement learning algorithm acting as an automatic trading system. The network architecture allows for the possibility that market dynamics are partially visible and are potentially modified by the agent's actions. The RDMM filters incomplete and noisy data, to create better-behaved input data for RL planning. The policy search optimisation also properly accounts for state uncertainty. Due to the complexity of the RKDF model architecture, we performed ablation studies to understand the contributions of individual components of the approach better. To test the financial performance of the RDMM we implement policies using variants of Q-Learning, DynaQ-ARIMA and DynaQ-LSTM algorithms. The experiments show that the RDMM is data-efficient and provides financial gains compared to the benchmarks in the optimal execution problem. The performance improvement becomes more pronounced when price dynamics are more complex, and this has been demonstrated using real data sets from the limit order book of Facebook, Intel, Vodafone and Microsoft.
Portfolio management via reinforcement learning is at the forefront of fintech research, which explores how to optimally reallocate a fund into different financial assets over the long term by trial-and-error. Existing methods are impractical since they usually assume each reallocation can be finished immediately and thus ignoring the price slippage as part of the trading cost. To address these issues, we propose a hierarchical reinforced stock trading system for portfolio management (HRPM). Concretely, we decompose the trading process into a hierarchy of portfolio management over trade execut…
In recent years, a wide range of investment models have been created using artificial intelligence. Automatic trading by artificial intelligence can expand the range of trading methods, such as by conferring the ability to operate 24 hours a day and the ability to trade with high frequency. Automatic trading can also be expected to trade with more information than is available to humans if it can sufficiently consider past data. In this paper, we propose an investment agent based on a deep reinforcement learning model, which is an artificial intelligence model. The model considers the transact…
Sequence-to-sequence models have shown promising improvements on the temporal task of video captioning, but they optimize word-level cross-entropy loss during training. First, using policy gradient and mixed-loss methods for reinforcement learning, we directly optimize sentence-level task-based metrics (as rewards), achieving significant improvements over the baseline, based on both automatic metrics and human evaluation on multiple datasets. Next, we propose a novel entailment-enhanced reward (CIDEnt) that corrects phrase-matching based metrics (such as CIDEr) to only allow for logically-impl…
University of Freiburg（弗莱堡大学）；National Institute of Informatics (NII)（国立信息学研究所）
The marvel of markets lies in the fact that dispersed information is instantaneously processed and used to adjust the price of goods, services and assets. Financial markets are particularly efficient when it comes to processing information; such information is typically embedded in textual news that is then interpreted by investors. Quite recently, researchers have started to automatically determine news sentiment in order to explain stock price movements. Interestingly, this so-called news sentiment works fairly well in explaining stock returns. In this paper, we design trading strategies tha…
An automatic program that generates constant profit from the financial market is lucrative for every market practitioner. Recent advance in deep reinforcement learning provides a framework toward end-to-end training of such trading agent. In this paper, we propose an Markov Decision Process (MDP) model suitable for the financial trading task and solve it with the state-of-the-art deep recurrent Q-network (DRQN) algorithm. We propose several modifications to the existing learning algorithm to make it more suitable under the financial trading setting, namely 1. We employ a substantially small re…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Facebook AI Research（脸书人工智能研究院）
Gradient-based methods for optimisation of objectives in stochastic settings with unknown or intractable dynamics require estimators of derivatives. We derive an objective that, under automatic differentiation, produces low-variance unbiased estimators of derivatives at any order. Our objective is compatible with arbitrary advantage estimators, which allows the control of the bias and variance of any-order derivatives when using function approximation. Furthermore, we propose a method to trade off bias and variance of higher order derivatives by discounting the impact of more distant causal de…
University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Adobe Research（奥多比研究院）
Style transfer deals with the algorithms to transfer the stylistic properties of a piece of text into that of another while ensuring that the core content is preserved. There has been a lot of interest in the field of text style transfer due to its wide application to tailored text generation. Existing works evaluate the style transfer models based on content preservation and transfer strength. In this work, we propose a reinforcement learning based framework that directly rewards the framework on these target metrics yielding a better transfer of the target style. We show the improved perform…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；New York University Shanghai（纽约大学上海校区）
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been envisioned to have a competitive edge in quantitative finance. However, there is a steep development curve for quantitative traders to obtain an agent that automatically positions to win in the market, namely \textit{to decide where to trade, at what price} and \textit{what quantity}, due to the error-prone programming and arduous debugging. In this paper, we present the first open-source framework \textit{FinRL} as a full pipeline to help quantitative traders overcome the steep learning curve. FinRL is featured with simplicity, applicability and exte…
MOT: A Mixture of Actors Reinforcement Learning Method by Optimal Transport for Algorithmic Trading
School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学人工智能学院）；Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）
Rapid growing intelligent applications require optimized bit allocation in image/video coding to support specific task-driven scenarios such as detection, classification, segmentation, etc. Some learning-based frameworks have been proposed for this purpose due to their inherent end-to-end optimization mechanisms. However, it is still quite challenging to integrate these task-driven metrics seamlessly into traditional hybrid coding framework. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work trying to solve this challenge based on reinforcement learning (RL) approach. Specifically, we …
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Point Zero One Technology（Point Zero One Technology（Point Zero One科技公司））
With the increasing power of computers and the rapid development of self-learning methodologies such as machine learning and artificial intelligence, the problem of constructing an automatic Financial Trading Systems (FTFs) becomes an increasingly attractive research topic. An intuitive way of developing such a trading algorithm is to use Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms, which does not require model-building. In this paper, we dive into the RL algorithms and illustrate the definitions of the reward function, actions and policy functions in details, as well as introducing algorithms that…
Northeast Electric Power University（东北电力大学）；Hanyang University（汉阳大学）
The emerging cryptocurrency market has lately received great attention for asset allocation due to its decentralization uniqueness. However, its volatility and brand new trading mode have made it challenging to devising an acceptable automatically-generating strategy. This study proposes a framework for automatic high-frequency bitcoin transactions based on a deep reinforcement learning algorithm-proximal policy optimization (PPO). The framework creatively regards the transaction process as actions, returns as awards and prices as states to align with the idea of reinforcement learning. It com…
The development of reinforced learning methods has extended application to many areas including algorithmic trading. In this paper trading on the stock exchange is interpreted into a game with a Markov property consisting of states, actions, and rewards. A system for trading the fixed volume of a financial instrument is proposed and experimentally tested; this is based on the asynchronous advantage actor-critic method with the use of several neural network architectures. The application of recurrent layers in this approach is investigated. The experiments were performed on real anonymized data…
University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）；Baidu Research（百度研究院）；University of Arizona（亚利桑那大学）
In this paper, we study the problem of balancing effectiveness and efficiency in automated feature selection. Feature selection is a fundamental intelligence for machine learning and predictive analysis. After exploring many feature selection methods, we observe a computational dilemma: 1) traditional feature selection methods (e.g., mRMR) are mostly efficient, but difficult to identify the best subset; 2) the emerging reinforced feature selection methods automatically navigate feature space to explore the best subset, but are usually inefficient. Are automation and efficiency always apart fro…
In modern society, the trading methods and strategies used in financial market have gradually changed from traditional on-site trading to electronic remote trading, and even online automatic trading performed by a pre-programmed computer programs because the continuous development of network and computer computing technology. The quantitative trading, which the main purpose is to automatically formulate people's investment decisions into a fixed and quantifiable operation logic that eliminates all emotional interference and the influence of subjective thoughts and applies this logic to financi…
State University of New York at Buffalo（纽约州立大学布法罗分校）；Tencent Inc.（腾讯公司）；Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Today social media has become the primary source for news. Via social media platforms, fake news travel at unprecedented speeds, reach global audiences and put users and communities at great risk. Therefore, it is extremely important to detect fake news as early as possible. Recently, deep learning based approaches have shown improved performance in fake news detection. However, the training of such models requires a large amount of labeled data, but manual annotation is time-consuming and expensive. Moreover, due to the dynamic nature of news, annotated samples may become outdated quickly and…
The autonomous trading agent is one of the most actively studied areas of artificial intelligence to solve the capital market portfolio management problem. The two primary goals of the portfolio management problem are maximizing profit and restrainting risk. However, most approaches to this problem solely take account of maximizing returns. Therefore, this paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning based trading agent that can manage the portfolio considering not only profit maximization but also risk restraint. We also propose a new target policy to allow the trading agent to learn to prefe…
BITS Pilani University（pilani大学）；K.K. Birla Goa Campus（K.K.比尔拉果阿校区）；ISI Calcutta（加尔各答印度统计研究所）
In this paper we explore the usage of deep reinforcement learning algorithms to automatically generate consistently profitable, robust, uncorrelated trading signals in any general financial market. In order to do this, we present a novel Markov decision process (MDP) model to capture the financial trading markets. We review and propose various modifications to existing approaches and explore different techniques like the usage of technical indicators, to succinctly capture the market dynamics to model the markets. We then go on to use deep reinforcement learning to enable the agent (the algori…
Financial trading aims to build profitable strategies to make wise investment decisions in the financial market. It has attracted interests in the machine learning community for a long time. This paper proposes to trade financial assets automatically using feature preprocessing skills and Recurrent Reinforcement Learning (RRL) algorithm. The strategy starts from technical indicators extracted from assets' market information. Then these technical indicators are preprocessed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and eventually inputted to the RRL algorithm to…
IMM: An Imitative Reinforcement Learning Approach with Predictive Representation Learning for Automatic Market Making
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；International Digital Economy Academy（国际数字经济研究院）；Harbin Institute of Technology（哈尔滨工业大学）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）
We carry out a large-scale empirical data analysis to examine the efficiency of the so-called pairs trading. On the basis of relevant three thresholds, namely, starting, profit-taking, and stop-loss for the `first-passage process' of the spread (gap) between two highly-correlated stocks, we construct an effective strategy to make a trade via `active' stock-pairs automatically. The algorithm is applied to $1,784$ stocks listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange leading up to totally $1,590,436$ pairs. We are numerically confirmed that the asset management by means of the pairs tra…
Motivated by the practical challenge in monitoring the performance of a large number of algorithmic trading orders, this paper provides a methodology that leads to automatic discovery of the causes that lie behind a poor trading performance. It also gives theoretical foundations to a generic framework for real-time trading analysis. Academic literature provides different ways to formalize these algorithms and show how optimal they can be from a mean-variance, a stochastic control, an impulse control or a statistical learning viewpoint. This paper is agnostic about the way the algorithm has bee…
University of Massachusetts Lowell（马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校）；GRC Capital LLC（GRC资本有限责任公司）
Financial markets are difficult to predict due to its complex systems dynamics. Although there have been some recent studies that use machine learning techniques for financial markets prediction, they do not offer satisfactory performance on financial returns. We propose a novel one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CNN) model to predict financial market movement. The customized one-dimensional convolutional layers scan financial trading data through time, while different types of data, such as prices and volume, share parameters (kernels) with each other. Our model automatically extr…
We present results demonstrating that an appropriately configured deep learning neural network (DLNN) can automatically learn to be a high-performing algorithmic trading system, operating purely from training-data inputs generated by passive observation of an existing successful trader T. That is, we can point our black-box DLNN system at trader T and successfully have it learn from T's trading activity, such that it trades at least as well as T. Our system, called DeepTrader, takes inputs derived from Level-2 market data, i.e. the market's Limit Order Book (LOB) or Ladder for a tradeable asse…
Finance is a particularly difficult playground for deep reinforcement learning. However, establishing high-quality market environments and benchmarks for financial reinforcement learning is challenging due to three major factors, namely, low signal-to-noise ratio of financial data, survivorship bias of historical data, and model overfitting in the backtesting stage. In this paper, we present an openly accessible FinRL-Meta library that has been actively maintained by the AI4Finance community. First, following a DataOps paradigm, we will provide hundreds of market environments through an automa…
