流行病规模分布中的有限尺寸标度与对偶随机变量和阴影矩
Finite-size scaling versus dual random variables and shadow moments in the size distribution of epidemics
摘要：
我讨论和批评使用“双重转换”来计算“阴影时刻”在流行病死亡人数的分布。我证明了这种变换是任意的，不仅产生了一个不合理的死亡分布函数形式，而且是高度非物理的（见手稿中的图1）。因此，从“阴影时刻”方法计算的预期死亡人数缺乏任何理论支持。这对于评估流行病风险至关重要。我认为，在统计物理学中解决这类问题的自然方法是通过有限尺寸标度。
英文摘要：
I discuss and criticize the use of "dual transformations" to calculate "shadow moments" in the distribution of epidemic fatalities. I show how this transformation is arbitrary and not only yields an unjustified functional form for the distribution of fatalities but turns out to be highly unphysical (see Fig. 1 in the manuscript). Therefore, the expected number of fatalities calculated from the "shadow moments" approach lacks any theoretical support. This is of fundamental importance to assess risk from pandemics. I argue that the natural way to address this sort of problems in statistical physics is by means of finite-size scaling.
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