地球长期气候变化和冰期：从第一性原理推导米兰科维奇循环
The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles
摘要：
地轴相对于其轨道平面倾斜的长期变化对长期气候变化具有重要意义，因为它们控制着北极圈和南极圈的大小。这些米兰科维奇循环通常是通过牛顿运动方程的数值积分计算的，并且对结果存在一些争议，因为它们对所涉及的非常长的计算机模拟的数值漂移很敏感。在本文中，循环计算的第一性原理，没有任何依赖于计算机模拟。这个问题是一个行星进动的问题，可以用研究旋转陀螺进动的方法来解决。结果表明，米兰科维奇循环的主分量具有41,000年的周期，是地-金星系统岁差模式之一。这个系统的另一个模式产生了29，500年周期的分量，第三个54，000年周期的分量是由木星和土星轨道的岁差影响产生的。这些结果与文献中的几个数值模拟结果非常吻合，并强烈表明文献中的其他不同结果是不正确的。
英文摘要：
Long-term changes in the tilt of the Earths axis, relative to the plane of its orbit, are of great significance to long-term climate change, because they control the size of the arctic and antarctic circles. These Milankovitch cycles have generally been calculated by numerical integration of Newtons equations of motion, and there is some controversy over the results because they are sensitive to numerical drift over the very long computer simulations involved. In this paper the cycles are calculated from first principles, without any reliance on computer simulation. The problem is one of planetary precession, and is solvable by the methods used to study the precession of a spinning top. It is shown that the main component of Milankovitch cycles has a period of 41,000 years and is due to one of the modes of precession of the Earth-Venus system. The other mode of this system produces a component of period 29,500 years, and a third component of period 54,000 years results from the influence of the precession of the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn. These results agree closely with several of the numerical simulations in the literature, and strongly suggest that other different results in the literature are incorrect.
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