We present a general framework for adaptive allocation of viral tests in social contact networks. We pose and solve several complementary problems. First, we consider the design of a social sensing system whose objective is the early detection of a novel epidemic outbreak. In particular, we propose an algorithm to select a subset of individuals to be tested in order to detect the onset of an epidemic outbreak as fast as possible. We pose this problem as a hitting time probability maximization problem and use submodularity optimization techniques to derive explicit quality guarantees for the proposed solution. Second, once an epidemic outbreak has been detected, we consider the problem of adaptively distributing viral tests over time in order to maximize the information gained about the current state of the epidemic. We formalize this problem in terms of information entropy and mutual information and propose an adaptive allocation strategy with quality guarantees. For these problems, we derive analytical solutions for any stochastic compartmental epidemic model with Markovian dynamics, as well as efficient Monte-Carlo-based algorithms for non-Markovian dynamics. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the proposed framework in numerical experiments involving a model of Covid-19 applied to a real human contact network.
We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary contact network by distributing vaccination resources throughout the network. We analyze a networked version of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model when individuals in the network present different levels of susceptibility to the epidemic. In this context, controlling the spread of an epidemic outbreak can be written as a spectral condition involving the eigenvalues of a matrix that depends on the network structure and the parameters of the model. We study the problem of finding…
We propose a mathematical framework, based on conic geometric programming, to control a susceptible-infected-susceptible viral spreading process taking place in a directed contact network with unknown contact rates. We assume that we have access to time series data describing the evolution of the spreading process observed by a collection of sensor nodes over a finite time interval. We propose a data-driven robust convex optimization framework to find the optimal allocation of protection resources (e.g., vaccines and/or antidotes) to eradicate the viral spread at the fastest possible rate. In …
Since early 2020, the world has been dealing with a raging pandemic outbreak: COVID-19. A year later, vaccines have become accessible, but in limited quantities, so that governments needed to devise a strategy to decide which part of the population to prioritize when assigning the available doses, and how to manage the interval between doses for multi-dose vaccines. In this paper, we present an optimization framework to address the dynamic double-dose vaccine allocation problem whereby the available vaccine doses must be administered to different age-groups to minimize specific societal object…
In recent years social and news media have increasingly been used to explain patterns in disease activity and progression. Social media data, principally from the Twitter network, has been shown to correlate well with official disease case counts. This fact has been exploited to provide advance warning of outbreak detection, tracking of disease levels and the ability to predict the likelihood of individuals developing symptoms. In this paper we introduce DEFENDER, a software system that integrates data from social and news media and incorporates algorithms for outbreak detection, situational a…
Tracking Twitter for public health has shown great potential. However, most recent work has been focused on correlating Twitter messages to influenza rates, a disease that exhibits a marked seasonal pattern. In the presence of sudden outbreaks, how can social media streams be used to strengthen surveillance capacity? In May 2011, Germany reported an outbreak of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC). It was one of the largest described outbreaks of EHEC/HUS worldwide and the largest in Germany. In this work, we study the crowd's behavior in Twitter during the outbreak. In particular, we rep…
Detecting and preventing outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases such as Dengue and Zika in Brasil and other tropical regions has long been a priority for governments in affected areas. Streaming social media content, such as Twitter, is increasingly being used for health vigilance applications such as flu detection. However, previous work has not addressed the complexity of drastic seasonal changes on Twitter content across multiple epidemic outbreaks. In order to address this gap, this paper contrasts two complementary approaches to detecting Twitter content that is relevant for Dengue outbreak…
The respiratory viral diseases, such as those caused by the family of coronaviruses, can be extremely contagious and spread through saliva droplets generated by coughing, sneezing, or breathing. In humans, the most common symptoms of the infection include fever and difficulty in breathing. In order to reduce the diffusion of the current "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)" pandemic, the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies can play an important role; for instance, they can be effectively used for implementing a real-time patient tracking and warning system at a city scale. Crucial places to …
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）；Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
The study aims to understand Twitter users' discourse and psychological reactions to COVID-19. We use machine learning techniques to analyze about 1.9 million Tweets (written in English) related to coronavirus collected from January 23 to March 7, 2020. A total of salient 11 topics are identified and then categorized into ten themes, including "updates about confirmed cases," "COVID-19 related death," "cases outside China (worldwide)," "COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea," "early signs of the outbreak in New York," "Diamond Princess cruise," "economic impact," "Preventive measures," "authorities…
At the time of this writing, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak has already put tremendous strain on many countries' citizens, resources and economies around the world. Social distancing measures, travel bans, self-quarantines, and business closures are changing the very fabric of societies worldwide. With people forced out of public spaces, much conversation about these phenomena now occurs online, e.g., on social media platforms like Twitter. In this paper, we describe a multilingual coronavirus (COVID-19) Twitter dataset that we have been continuously collecting since Januar…
In February 2016, World Health Organization declared the Zika outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. With developing evidence it can cause birth defects, and the Summer Olympics coming up in the worst affected country, Brazil, the virus caught fire on social media. In this work, use Zika as a case study in building a tool for tracking the misinformation around health concerns on Twitter. We collect more than 13 million tweets -- spanning the initial reports in February 2016 and the Summer Olympics -- regarding the Zika outbreak and track rumors outlined by the World Healt…
Spreading processes, e.g. epidemics, wildfires and rumors, are often modeled on static networks. However, their underlying network structures, e.g. changing contacts in social networks, different weather forecasts for wildfires, are due to ever-changing circumstances inherently time-varying in nature. In this paper, we therefore, propose an optimization framework for sparse resource allocation for control of spreading processes over temporal networks with known connectivity patterns. We use convex optimization, in particular exponential cone programming, and dynamic programming techniques to b…
Sensor placement for the purpose of detecting/tracking news outbreak and preventing rumor spreading is a challenging problem in a large scale online social network (OSN). This problem is a kind of subset selection problem: choosing a small set of items from a large population so to maximize some prespecified set function. However, it is known to be NP-complete. Existing heuristics are very costly especially for modern OSNs which usually contain hundreds of millions of users. This paper aims to design methods to find \emph{good solutions} that can well trade off efficiency and accuracy. We firs…
Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not …
In this chapter, we focus on the problem of containing the spread of diseases taking place in both temporal and adaptive networks (i.e., networks whose structure `adapts' to the state of the disease). We specifically focus on the problem of finding the optimal allocation of containment resources (e.g., vaccines, medical personnel, traffic control resources, etc.) to eradicate epidemic outbreaks over the following three models of temporal and adaptive networks: (i) Markovian temporal networks, (ii) aggregated-Markovian temporal networks, and (iii) stochastically adaptive models. For each model,…
Recent Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need of efficient epidemic outbreak management. We study the optimal control problem of minimizing the fraction of infected population by applying vaccination and treatment control strategies, while at the same time minimizing the cost of implementing them. We model the epidemic using the degree based Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model. We study the impact of varying network topologies on the optimal epidemic management strategies and present results for the Erdos-Renyi, scale free, and real world networks. For efficient compu…
