A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model that consists of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), where each node is a random variable and attached to each node is a conditional probability distribution (CPD). A Bayesian network can be learned from data using the well-known score-and-search approach, and within this approach a key consideration is how to simultaneously learn the global structure in the form of the underlying DAG and the local structure in the CPDs. Several useful forms of local structure have been identified in the literature but thus far the score-and-search approach has only been extended to handle local structure in form of context-specific independence. In this paper, we show how to extend the score-and-search approach to the important and widely useful case of noisy-OR relations. We provide an effective gradient descent algorithm to score a candidate noisy-OR using the widely used BIC score and we provide pruning rules that allow the search to successfully scale to medium sized networks. Our empirical results provide evidence for the success of our approach to learning Bayesian networks that incorporate noisy-OR relations.
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
We develop a closed form asymptotic formula to compute the marginal likelihood of data given a naive Bayesian network model with two hidden states and binary features. This formula deviates from the standard BIC score. Our work provides a concrete example that the BIC score is generally not valid for statistical models that belong to a stratified exponential family. This stands in contrast to linear and curved exponential families, where the BIC score has been proven to provide a correct approximation for the marginal likelihood.
Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error. Bayesian optimization is a promising technique for efficiently optimizing multiple continuous parameters, but existing approaches degrade in performance when the noise level is high, limiting its applicability to many randomized experiments. We derive an expression for expected improvement under greedy batch optimization with noisy observations and noisy co…
Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence（博世人工智能中心）；ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）
We consider the problem of robust optimization within the well-established Bayesian optimization (BO) framework. While BO is intrinsically robust to noisy evaluations of the objective function, standard approaches do not consider the case of uncertainty about the input parameters. In this paper, we propose Noisy-Input Entropy Search (NES), a novel information-theoretic acquisition function that is designed to find robust optima for problems with both input and measurement noise. NES is based on the key insight that the robust objective in many cases can be modeled as a Gaussian process, howeve…
Score-based algorithms that learn the structure of Bayesian networks can be used for both exact and approximate solutions. While approximate learning scales better with the number of variables, it can be computationally expensive in the presence of high dimensional data. This paper describes an approximate algorithm that performs parallel sampling on Candidate Parent Sets (CPSs), and can be viewed as an extension of MINOBS which is a state-of-the-art algorithm for structure learning from high dimensional data. The modified algorithm, which we call Parallel Sampling MINOBS (PS-MINOBS), construc…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Rockwell International Science Center（罗克韦尔国际科学中心）
The Noisy-Or model is convenient for describing a class of uncertain relationships in Bayesian networks [Pearl 1988]. Pearl describes the Noisy-Or model for Boolean variables. Here we generalize the model to nary input and output variables and to arbitrary functions other than the Boolean OR function. This generalization is a useful modeling aid for construction of Bayesian networks. We illustrate with some examples including digital circuit diagnosis and network reliability analysis.
Optimizing multiple competing black-box objectives is a challenging problem in many fields, including science, engineering, and machine learning. Multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) is a sample-efficient approach for identifying the optimal trade-offs between the objectives. However, many existing methods perform poorly when the observations are corrupted by noise. We propose a novel acquisition function, NEHVI, that overcomes this important practical limitation by applying a Bayesian treatment to the popular expected hypervolume improvement (EHVI) criterion and integrating over this …
Variational inference provides approximations to the computationally intractable posterior distribution in Bayesian networks. A prominent medical application of noisy-or Bayesian network is to infer potential diseases given observed symptoms. Previous studies focus on approximating a handful of complicated pathological cases using variational transformation. Our goal is to use variational transformation as part of a novel hybridized inference for serving reliable and real time diagnosis at web scale. We propose a hybridized inference that allows variational parameters to be estimated without d…
In recent years there has been a flurry of works on learning Bayesian networks from data. One of the hard problems in this area is how to effectively learn the structure of a belief network from incomplete data- that is, in the presence of missing values or hidden variables. In a recent paper, I introduced an algorithm called Structural EM that combines the standard Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, which optimizes parameters, with structure search for model selection. That algorithm learns networks based on penalized likelihood scores, which include the BIC/MDL score and various approx…
Datasets in engineering applications are often limited and contaminated, mainly due to unavoidable measurement noise and signal distortion. Thus, using conventional data-driven approaches to build a reliable discriminative model, and further applying this identified surrogate to uncertainty analysis remains to be very challenging. A deep learning approach is presented to provide predictions based on limited and noisy data. To address noise perturbation, the Bayesian learning method that naturally facilitates an automatic updating mechanism is considered to quantify and propagate model uncertai…
STREGO: A Scalable Implementation of a Trust-Region Framework for Noisy Bayesian Optimization
GERAD & Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔理工学院 GERAD 与数学及工业工程系）；GERAD & Department of Management, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières（特鲁瓦河魁北克大学 GERAD 与管理系）
We give a new consistent scoring function for structure learning of Bayesian networks. In contrast to traditional approaches to scorebased structure learning, such as BDeu or MDL, the complexity penalty that we propose is data-dependent and is given by the probability that a conditional independence test correctly shows that an edge cannot exist. What really distinguishes this new scoring function from earlier work is that it has the property of becoming computationally easier to maximize as the amount of data increases. We prove a polynomial sample complexity result, showing that maximizing t…
We give a new consistent scoring function for structure learning of Bayesian networks. In contrast to traditional approaches to score-based structure learning, such as BDeu or MDL, the complexity penalty that we propose is data-dependent and is given by the probability that a conditional independence test correctly shows that an edge cannot exist. What really distinguishes this new scoring function from earlier work is that it has the property of becoming computationally easier to maximize as the amount of data increases. We prove a polynomial sample complexity result, showing that maximizing …
Autodesk Canada（欧特克加拿大公司）；University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）
Previous studies have demonstrated that encoding a Bayesian network into a SAT formula and then performing weighted model counting using a backtracking search algorithm can be an effective method for exact inference. In this paper, we present techniques for improving this approach for Bayesian networks with noisy-OR and noisy-MAX relations---two relations that are widely used in practice as they can dramatically reduce the number of probabilities one needs to specify. In particular, we present two SAT encodings for noisy-OR and two encodings for noisy-MAX that exploit the structure or semantic…
Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale（达莱莫勒人工智能研究所）
A test is adaptive when its sequence and number of questions is dynamically tuned on the basis of the estimated skills of the taker. Graphical models, such as Bayesian networks, are used for adaptive tests as they allow to model the uncertainty about the questions and the skills in an explainable fashion, especially when coping with multiple skills. A better elicitation of the uncertainty in the question/skills relations can be achieved by interval probabilities. This turns the model into a credal network, thus making more challenging the inferential complexity of the queries required to selec…
This paper analyzes DONE, an online optimization algorithm that iteratively minimizes an unknown function based on costly and noisy measurements. The algorithm maintains a surrogate of the unknown function in the form of a random Fourier expansion (RFE). The surrogate is updated whenever a new measurement is available, and then used to determine the next measurement point. The algorithm is comparable to Bayesian optimization algorithms, but its computational complexity per iteration does not depend on the number of measurements. We derive several theoretical results that provide insight on how…
Information Extraction and Transport, Inc.（信息提取与传输公司）
The noisy-or and its generalization noisy-max have been utilized to reduce the complexity of knowledge acquisition. In this paper, we present a new representation of noisy-max that allows for efficient inference in general Bayesian networks. Empirical studies show that our method is capable of computing queries in well-known large medical networks, QMR-DT and CPCS, for which no previous exact inference method has been shown to perform well.
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
In recent years, deep learning has vastly improved the identification and diagnosis of various diseases in plants. In this report, we investigate the problem of pathology classification using images of a single leaf. We explore the use of standard benchmark models such as VGG16, ResNet101, and DenseNet 161 to achieve a 0.945 score on the task. Furthermore, we explore the use of the newer EfficientNet model, improving the accuracy to 0.962. Finally, we introduce the state-of-the-art idea of semi-supervised Noisy Student training to the EfficientNet, resulting in significant improvements in both…
Istituto Dalle Molle di studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA)（达莱莫勒人工智能研究所）
For decomposable score-based structure learning of Bayesian networks, existing approaches first compute a collection of candidate parent sets for each variable and then optimize over this collection by choosing one parent set for each variable without creating directed cycles while maximizing the total score. We target the task of constructing the collection of candidate parent sets when the score of choice is the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). We provide new non-trivial results that can be used to prune the search space of candidate parent sets of each node. We analyze how these new re…
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；School of Operations Research & Information Engineering（运筹学与信息工程学院）
We propose a Bayesian optimization algorithm for objective functions that are sums or integrals of expensive-to-evaluate functions, allowing noisy evaluations. These objective functions arise in multi-task Bayesian optimization for tuning machine learning hyperparameters, optimization via simulation, and sequential design of experiments with random environmental conditions. Our method is average-case optimal by construction when a single evaluation of the integrand remains within our evaluation budget. Achieving this one-step optimality requires solving a challenging value of information optim…
SCORE: A 1D Reparameterization Technique to Break Bayesian Optimization's Curse of Dimensionality
Laboratoire de Physique des Interfaces et des Couches Minces (LPICM)（界面与薄膜物理实验室（LPICM））；Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)（巴黎综合理工学院，巴黎理工学院（IP Paris））；Institut Photovoltaïque d’Île-de-France (IPVF)（法兰西岛光伏研究所（IPVF））
Rubric-based Learner Modelling via Noisy Gates Bayesian Networks for Computational Thinking Skills Assessment
Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA)（达勒·莫勒人工智能研究所）；SUPSI（瑞士南部应用科学大学）；USI（瑞士意大利语区大学）；Department of Education and Learning (DFA)（教育与学习系）
We consider the Bayesian active learning and experimental design problem, where the goal is to learn the value of some unknown target variable through a sequence of informative, noisy tests. In contrast to prior work, we focus on the challenging, yet practically relevant setting where test outcomes can be conditionally dependent given the hidden target variable. Under such assumptions, common heuristics, such as greedily performing tests that maximize the reduction in uncertainty of the target, often perform poorly. In this paper, we propose ECED, a novel, computationally efficient active lear…
We tackle the fundamental problem of Bayesian active learning with noise, where we need to adaptively select from a number of expensive tests in order to identify an unknown hypothesis sampled from a known prior distribution. In the case of noise-free observations, a greedy algorithm called generalized binary search (GBS) is known to perform near-optimally. We show that if the observations are noisy, perhaps surprisingly, GBS can perform very poorly. We develop EC2, a novel, greedy active learning algorithm and prove that it is competitive with the optimal policy, thus obtaining the first comp…
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；KU Leuven（鲁汶大学）；Graz University of Technology（格拉茨理工大学）
Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a prominent representation of probability distributions with tractable inference. While parameter learning in PCs is rigorously studied, structure learning is often more based on heuristics than on principled objectives. In this paper, we develop Bayesian structure scores for deterministic PCs, i.e., the structure likelihood with parameters marginalized out, which are well known as rigorous objectives for structure learning in probabilistic graphical models. When used within a greedy cutset algorithm, our scores effectively protect against overfitting and yield…
This paper considers the problem of learning the parameters in Bayesian networks of discrete variables with known structure and hidden variables. Previous approaches in these settings typically use expectation maximization; when the network has high treewidth, the required expectations might be approximated using Monte Carlo or variational methods. We show how to avoid inference altogether during learning by giving a polynomial-time algorithm based on the method-of-moments, building upon recent work on learning discrete-valued mixture models. In particular, we show how to learn the parameters …
Department of Basic Neuroscience, University of Geneva（日内瓦大学基础神经科学系）
Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) is a recently introduced framework that uses Gaussian process surrogates to perform approximate Bayesian inference in models with black-box, non-cheap likelihoods. In this work, we extend VBMC to deal with noisy log-likelihood evaluations, such as those arising from simulation-based models. We introduce new `global' acquisition functions, such as expected information gain (EIG) and variational interquantile range (VIQR), which are robust to noise and can be efficiently evaluated within the VBMC setting. In a novel, challenging, noisy-inference benchmark …
Noisy-OR Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a family of probabilistic graphical models which express rich statistical dependencies in binary data. Variational inference (VI) has been the main method proposed to learn noisy-OR BNs with complex latent structures (Jaakkola & Jordan, 1999; Ji et al., 2020; Buhai et al., 2020). However, the proposed VI approaches either (a) use a recognition network with standard amortized inference that cannot induce ``explaining-away''; or (b) assume a simple mean-field (MF) posterior which is vulnerable to bad local optima. Existing MF VI methods also update the MF par…
Helsinki Institute for Information Technology HIIT（赫尔辛基信息技术研究所）；Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）
We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method is used to form the noisy log-likelihood estimates using computationally costly forward simulations. We frame the inference task as a sequential Bayesian experimental design problem, where the log-likelihood function is modelled with a hierarchical Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model, which is used to efficiently select additional log-likelihood evaluation…
Brown University（布朗大学）；Pacific Northwest National Laboratory（西北太平洋国家实验室）
We propose a Bayesian physics-informed neural network (B-PINN) to solve both forward and inverse nonlinear problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) and noisy data. In this Bayesian framework, the Bayesian neural network (BNN) combined with a PINN for PDEs serves as the prior while the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) or the variational inference (VI) could serve as an estimator of the posterior. B-PINNs make use of both physical laws and scattered noisy measurements to provide predictions and quantify the aleatoric uncertainty arising from the noisy data in the Bayesian framewo…
A Bayesian Filtering Approach for Learning Lagrangian Dynamics from Noisy Measurements
School of Engineering and Applied Science, Ahmedabad University（艾哈迈达巴德大学工程与应用科学学院）；Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (BHU) Varanasi（印度理工学院（BHU）瓦拉纳西分校电气工程系）；ELLIS Institute Finland（芬兰ELLIS研究所）；Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Aalto University（阿尔托大学电气工程与自动化系）
We build a Bayesian contextual classification model using an optimistic score ratio for robust binary classification when there is limited information on the class-conditional, or contextual, distribution. The optimistic score searches for the distribution that is most plausible to explain the observed outcomes in the testing sample among all distributions belonging to the contextual ambiguity set which is prescribed using a limited structural constraint on the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the underlying contextual distribution. We show that the Bayesian classifier using the optimi…
Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University（京都大学信息学研究生院）；The Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University（京都大学白眉高级研究中心）；AIP Center for Advanced Intelligence Project, RIKEN（理化学研究所高级智能项目AIP中心）
Most work on musical score models (a.k.a. musical language models) for music transcription has focused on describing the local sequential dependence of notes in musical scores and failed to capture their global repetitive structure, which can be a useful guide for transcribing music. Focusing on rhythm, we formulate several classes of Bayesian Markov models of musical scores that describe repetitions indirectly using the sparse transition probabilities of notes or note patterns. This enables us to construct piece-specific models for unseen scores with an unfixed repetitive structure and to der…
Learning Robust Recommenders from Noisy Implicit Feedback via GMM-Weighted Bayesian Transition Matrix
Guangdong University of Technology（广东工业大学）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Capital Normal University（首都师范大学）；Xiamen University（厦门大学）；Beijing Jiaotong University（北京交通大学）
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；CREST—ENSAE（法国国家统计与经济研究所-国立统计与经济管理学院）；HEC Paris（巴黎高等商学院）；University of Bristol（布里斯托大学）
We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the structure of a Markov decision process. Adopting a Bayesian approach to inference, we show how latent variables of the model can be estimated, and how predictions about actions can be made, in a unified framework. A new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is devised for simulation from the posterior distribution. This step includes a parameter expansion step, wh…
The Deep Operator Networks~(DeepONet) is a fundamentally different class of neural networks that we train to approximate nonlinear operators, including the solution operator of parametric partial differential equations (PDE). DeepONets have shown remarkable approximation and generalization capabilities even when trained with relatively small datasets. However, the performance of DeepONets deteriorates when the training data is polluted with noise, a scenario that occurs very often in practice. To enable DeepONets training with noisy data, we propose using the Bayesian framework of replica-exch…
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；University of York（约克大学）
Many algorithms for score-based Bayesian network structure learning (BNSL), in particular exact ones, take as input a collection of potentially optimal parent sets for each variable in the data. Constructing such collections naively is computationally intensive since the number of parent sets grows exponentially with the number of variables. Thus, pruning techniques are not only desirable but essential. While good pruning rules exist for the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), current results for the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent uniform (BDeu) score reduce the search space very modestly, ha…
This paper presents a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian systems identification from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficientl…
Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA)（达莱莫莱人工智能研究所（IDSIA））；USI（意大利语区大学）；SUPSI（瑞士南部应用科学与艺术大学）
Score functions for learning the structure of Bayesian networks in the literature assume that data are a homogeneous set of observations; whereas it is often the case that they comprise different related, but not homogeneous, data sets collected in different ways. In this paper we propose a new Bayesian Dirichlet score, which we call Bayesian Hierarchical Dirichlet (BHD). The proposed score is based on a hierarchical model that pools information across data sets to learn a single encompassing network structure, while taking into account the differences in their probabilistic structures. We der…
While real-world decisions involve many competing objectives, algorithmic decisions are often evaluated with a single objective function. In this paper, we study algorithmic policies which explicitly trade off between a private objective (such as profit) and a public objective (such as social welfare). We analyze a natural class of policies which trace an empirical Pareto frontier based on learned scores, and focus on how such decisions can be made in noisy or data-limited regimes. Our theoretical results characterize the optimal strategies in this class, bound the Pareto errors due to inaccur…
Scientific machine learning has been successfully applied to inverse problems and PDE discovery in computational physics. One caveat concerning current methods is the need for large amounts of ("clean") data, in order to characterize the full system response and discover underlying physical models. Bayesian methods may be particularly promising for overcoming these challenges, as they are naturally less sensitive to the negative effects of sparse and noisy data. In this paper, we propose to use Bayesian neural networks (BNN) in order to: 1) Recover the full system states from measurement data …
University of Tennessee（田纳西大学）；US Army Research Laboratory（美国陆军研究实验室）
Investigation of human brain states through electroencephalograph (EEG) signals is a crucial step in human-machine communications. However, classifying and analyzing EEG signals are challenging due to their noisy, nonlinear and nonstationary nature. Current methodologies for analyzing these signals often fall short because they have several regularity assumptions baked in. This work provides an effective, flexible and noise-resilient scheme to analyze EEG by extracting pertinent information while abiding by the 3N (noisy, nonlinear and nonstationary) nature of data. We implement a topological …
