利用Mann Kendall趋势检验和Sens估计对气象参数、对流层折射率、伪绝热过程的等效位温和场强变率的趋势分析
Trend Analysis of Meteorological Parameters, Tropospheric Refractivity, Equivalent Potential Temperature for a Pseudoadiabatic Process and Field Strength Variability, Using Mann Kendall Trend Test and Sens Estimate
摘要：
利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sens斜率估计对尼日利亚南部卡拉巴尔地区的气象参数（温度、气压和相对湿度）以及计算出的准绝热过程的辐射活动、等效位温（EPT）和场强进行了趋势分析。气象参数的数据来自卡拉巴尔的尼日利亚气象局（NiMet）14年（2005 - 2018）。结果表明，最高温度、平均温度、气压、放射性活度、EPT和场强均为正的Kendall Z值，分别为2.52、0.33、3.83、0.77、0.44和3.18，随时间的推移呈增加趋势，只有最高温度、大气压力和场强在5%（0.05）显著性水平下显示显著增加，因为其计算的p值（0.012、0.0001和0.001）小于0.05。相对湿度和最低周遭温度随时间呈下降趋势，因为它们的Kendall Z值均为负值（分别为-0.11和-1.09），但是，与平均周遭温度和放射性活度一起，它们的趋势不具有5%的显著性水平，因为它们的计算p值均大于0.05。线性回归、相关分析和偏微分分析表明，相对湿度对季节性降水活动的影响最大，而与场强变率有间接关系。已经发现EPT和抗氧化活性之间的关系是非常强和积极的。描述性统计已被用来描绘所有参数的季节性和年度趋势。
英文摘要：
Trend analysis of meteorological parameters (temperature, pressure, and relative humidity) as well as calculated refractivity, equivalent potential temperature (EPT) for a pseudo-adiabatic process, and field strength in Calabar, Southern Nigeria has been analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and Sens slope estimator. Data of the meteorological parameters were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) in Calabar for 14 years (2005 - 2018). Results show that the maximum and average temperature, atmospheric pressure, refractivity, EPT and field strength all exhibited a positive Kendall Z value with 2.52, 0.33, 3.83, 0.77, 0.44 and 3.18 respectively which indicated an increasing trend over time, with only maximum temperature, atmospheric pressure and field strength showing a significant increase at 5% (0.05) level of significance, since their calculated p-values (0.012, 0.0001, and 0.001) were less than 0.05. The relative humidity and minimum ambient temperature showed a decrease in trend over time as they both had a negative Kendall Z values (-0.11 and -1.09 respectively), however, together with the average ambient temperature and refractivity, their trend was not significant 5% level of significance since their calculated p-values were all more than 0.05. Linear regression, correlation and partial differentiation showed that relative humidity has the most effect on the changes in seasonal refractivity and an indirect relationship with field strength variability. The relationship between EPT and refractivity has been discovered to be very strong and positive. Descriptive statistics has been used to portray the seasonal and annual trend of all parameters.
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