揭示大型工程项目网络的脆弱性
Uncovering the fragility of large-scale engineering project networks
摘要：
众所周知，工程项目很难按时完成，项目延迟通常被认为会在相互依赖的活动中传播。在这里，我们使用了一个由14个不同的大型工程项目的活动网络组成的新数据集，以揭示影响项目及时完成的网络属性。我们提供了第一个经验证据的传染性活动偏差，在交付一个单一的活动扰动可以影响多达4个活动下游，导致大扰动级联。我们进一步表明，扰动聚类显着影响项目的整体延迟。最后，我们发现，表现不佳的项目在高到达节点，这可能会导致最大的级联最高的扰动，而表现良好的项目在低到达节点的扰动，导致局部级联。总而言之，这些发现为网络科学框架铺平了道路，该框架可以实质性地增强大型工程项目的交付。
英文摘要：
Engineering projects are notoriously hard to complete on-time, with project delays often theorised to propagate across interdependent activities. Here, we use a novel dataset consisting of activity networks from 14 diverse, large-scale engineering projects to uncover network properties that impact timely project completion. We provide the first empirical evidence of the infectious nature of activity deviations, where perturbations in the delivery of a single activity can impact up to 4 activities downstream, leading to large perturbation cascades. We further show that perturbation clustering significantly affects project overall delays. Finally, we find that poorly performing projects have their highest perturbations in high reach nodes, which can lead to largest cascades, while well performing projects have perturbations in low reach nodes, resulting in localised cascades. Altogether, these findings pave the way for a network-science framework that can materially enhance the delivery of large-scale engineering projects.
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