Finite mixture models have been widely used to model and analyze data from a heterogeneous populations. Moreover, data of this kind can be missing or subject to some upper and/or lower detection limits because of the restriction of experimental apparatuses. Another complication arises when measures of each population depart significantly from normality, for instance, asymmetric behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust model for censored and/or missing data based on finite mixtures of multivariate skew-normal distributions. This approach allows us to model data with great flexibility, accommodating multimodality and skewness, simultaneously, depending on the structure of the mixture components. We develop an analytically simple, yet efficient, EM- type algorithm for conducting maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters. The algorithm has closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of the truncated multivariate skew-normal distributions. Furthermore, a general information-based method for approximating the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimators is also presented. Results obtained from the analysis of both simulated and real datasets are reported to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed algorithm and method are implemented in the new R package CensMFM.
Skewness plays a relevant role in several multivariate statistical techniques. Sometimes it is used to recover data features, as in cluster analysis. In other circumstances, skewness impairs the performances of statistical methods, as in the Hotelling's one-sample test. In both cases, there is the need to check the symmetry of the underlying distribution, either by visual inspection or by formal testing. The R packages MaxSkew and MultiSkew address these issues by measuring, testing and removing skewness from multivariate data. Skewness is assessed by the third multivariate cumulant and its fu…
This paper describes an algorithm for fitting finite mixtures of unrestricted Multivariate Skew t (FM-uMST) distributions. The package EMMIX-uskew implements a closed-form expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for computing the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the parameters for the (unrestricted) FM-MST model in R. EMMIX-uskew also supports visualization of fitted contours in two and three dimensions, and random sample generation from a specified FM-uMST distribution. Finite mixtures of skew t-distributions have proven to be useful in modelling heterogeneous data with asymmetric and hea…
We develop a multivariate cure survival model to estimate lifetime patterns of colorectal cancer screening. Screening data cover long periods of time, with sparse observations for each person. Some events may occur before the study begins or after the study ends, so the data are both left- and right-censored, and some individuals are never screened (the "cured" population). We propose a multivariate parametric cure model that can be used with left- and right-censored data. Our model allows for the estimation of the time to screening as well as the average number of times individuals will be sc…
We propose a novel personalized concept for the optimal treatment selection for a situation where the response is a multivariate vector, that could contain right-censored variables such as survival time. The proposed method can be applied with any number of treatments and outcome variables, under a broad set of models. Following a working semiparametric Single Index Model that relates covariates and responses, we first define a patient-specific composite score, constructed from individual covariates. We then estimate conditional means of each response, given the patient score, correspond to ea…
In this paper, we suggest using a skew Gaussian-log Gaussian model for the analysis of spatial censored data from a Bayesian point of view. This approach furnishes an extension of the skew log Gaussian model to accommodate to both skewness and heavy tails and also censored data. All of the characteristics mentioned are three pervasive features of spatial data. We utilize data augmentation method and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to do posterior calculations. The methodology is illustrated using simulated data, as well as applying it to a real data set. Keywords: Censored data, dat…
Stochastic weather generators (SWGs) are digital twins of complex weather processes and widely used in agriculture and urban design. Due to improved measuring instruments, an accurate SWG for high-frequency precipitation is now possible. However, high-frequency precipitation data are more zero-inflated, skewed, and heavy-tailed than common (hourly or daily) precipitation data. Therefore, classical methods that either model precipitation occurrence independently of their intensity or assume that the precipitation follows a censored meta-Gaussian process may not be appropriate. In this work, we …
We introduce a flexible individual frailty model for clustered right-censored data, in which covariate effects can be marginally interpreted as log failure odds ratios. Flexible correlation structures can be imposed by introducing multivariate exponential distributed frailties, constructed from a set of multivariate Gaussian random variables. Finite and infinite dimensional parameters are consistently estimated by maximizing a composite contributing marginal likelihood and a consistent estimate for their asymptotic covariance is proposed. Parameter estimation is implemented through a hybrid ex…
How to include censored data in a statistical analysis is a recur-rent issue in statistics. In multivariate extremes, the dependence structure of large observations can be characterized in terms of a non parametric angular measure, while marginal excesses above asymptotically large thresholds have a parametric distribution. In this work, a flexible semi-parametric Dirichlet mix-ture model for angular measures is adapted to the context of censored data and missing components. One major issue is to take into account censoring intervals overlapping the extremal threshold, without knowing whether …
When facing multivariate covariates, general semiparametric regression techniques come at hand to propose flexible models that are unexposed to the curse of dimensionality. In this work a semiparametric copula-based estimator for conditional quantiles is investigated for complete or right-censored data. In spirit, the methodology is extending the recent work of Noh et al. (2013) and Noh et al. (2015), as the main idea consists in appropriately defining the quantile regression in terms of a multivariate copula and marginal distributions. Prior estimation of the latter and simple plug-in lead to…
A number of models for generating statistical data in various fields of insurance, including life insurance, pensions, and general insurance have been considered. It is shown that the insurance statistics data, as a rule, are truncated and censored, and often multivariate. We propose a non-parametric estimation of the distribution function for multivariate truncated-censored data in the form of a quasi-empirical distribution and a simple iterative algorithm for its construction. To check the accuracy of the proposed evaluation of the distribution function for truncated-censored data, simulatio…
The Mardia measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis summarize the respective characteristics of a multivariate distribution with two numbers. However, these measures do not reflect the sub-dimensional features of the distribution. Consequently, testing procedures based on these measures may fail to detect skewness or kurtosis present in a sub-dimension of the multivariate distribution. We introduce sub-dimensional Mardia measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis, and investigate the information they convey about all sub-dimensional distributions of some symmetric and skewed families…
The mixed effects model for repeated measures (MMRM) has been widely used for the analysis of longitudinal clinical data collected at a number of fixed time points. We propose a robust extension of the MMRM for skewed and heavy-tailed data on basis of the multivariate skew-t distribution, and it includes the multivariate normal, t, and skew-normal distributions as special cases. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed using the monotone data augmentation and parameter expansion techniques. We employ the algorithm to perform controlled pattern imputations for sensitivity an…
The skew-normal and related families are flexible and asymmetric parametric models suitable for modelling a diverse range of systems. We show that the multivariate maximum of a high-dimensional extended skew-normal random sample has asymptotically independent components and derive the speed of convergence of the joint tail. To describe the possible dependence among the components of the multivariate maximum, we show that under appropriate conditions an approximate multivariate extreme-value distribution that leads to a rich dependence structure can be derived.
The univariate Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this article, we define a skewed version of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution in the multivariate setting and derive several of its properties. The proposed skewed multivariate model is an absolutely continuous distribution whose marginals are univariate Birnbaum-Saunders distributions. Estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood is discussed and the Fisher's information matrix is determined. A skewed bivariate versi…
The estimation of extreme flood quantiles is challenging due to the relative scarcity of extreme data compared to typical target return periods. Several approaches have been developed over the years to face this challenge, including regional estimation and the use of historical flood data. This paper investigates the combination of both approaches using a multivariate peaks-over-threshold model, that allows estimating altogether the intersite dependence structure and the marginal distributions at each site. The joint distribution of extremes at several sites is constructed using a semi-paramet…
A fairly general procedure is studied to perturbate a multivariate density satisfying a weak form of multivariate symmetry, and to generate a whole set of non-symmetric densities. The approach is general enough to encompass a number of recent proposals in the literature, variously related to the skew normal distribution. The special case of skew elliptical densities is examined in detail, establishing connections with existing similar work. The final part of the paper specializes further to a form of multivariate skew $t$ density. Likelihood inference for this distribution is examined, and it …
Azzalini (1985) introduced a skew-normal distribution of which normal distribution is a special case. Recently Kundu (2014) introduced a geometric skew-normal distribution and showed that it has certain advantages over Azzalini's skew-normal distribution. In this paper we discuss about the multivariate geometric skew-normal distribution. It can be used as an alternative to Azzalini's skew normal distribution. We discuss different properties of the proposed distribution. It is observed that the joint probability density function of the multivariate geometric skew normal distribution can take va…
Azzalini & Dalla Valle (1996) have recently discussed the multivariate skew-normal distribution which extends the class of normal distributions by the addition of a shape parameter. The first part of the present paper examines further probabilistic properties of the distribution, with special emphasis on aspects of statistical relevance. Inferential and other statistical issues are discussed in the following part, with applications to some multivariate statistics problems, illustrated by numerical examples. Finally, a further extension is described which introduces a skewing factor of an ellip…
The canonical form of scale mixtures of multivariate skew-normal distribution is defined, emphasizing its role in summarizing some key properties of this class of distributions. It is also shown that the canonical form corresponds to an affine invariant co-ordinate system as defined in Tyler \emph{et} al. (2009), and a method for obtaining the linear transform that converts a scale mixture of multivariate skew-normal distribution into a canonical form is presented. Related results, where the particular case of the multivariate skew $t$ distribution is considered in greater detail, are the gene…
The multivariate extended skew-normal distribution allows for accommodating raw data which are skewed and heavy tailed, and has at least three appealing statistical properties, namely closure under conditioning, affine transformations, and marginalization. In this paper we propose a Bayesian computational approach based on a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler to estimate such distributions. The practical implementation of each step of the algorithm is discussed and the elicitation of prior distributions takes into consideration some unusual behaviour of the likelihood function and the corres…
Much work has been done in the area of the cluster weighted model (CWM), which extends the finite mixture of regression model to include modelling of the covariates. Although many types of distributions have been considered for both the response and covariates, to our knowledge skewed distributions have not yet been considered in this paradigm. Herein, a family of 24 novel CWMs are considered which allows both the covariates and response variables to be modelled using one of four skewed distributions, or the normal distribution. Parameter estimation is performed using the expectation-maximizat…
The family of stable distributions received extensive applications in many fields of studies since it incorporates both the skewness and heavy tails. In this paper, we introduce a package written in the R language called alphastable. The alphastable performs a variety of tasks including: 1- generating random numbers from univariate, truncated, and multivariate stable distributions. 2- computing the probability density function of univariate and multivariate elliptically contoured stable distributions, 3- computing the distribution function of univariate stable distributions, 4- estimating the …
The mixture of factor analyzers (MFA) model provides a powerful tool for analyzing high-dimensional data as it can reduce the number of free parameters through its factor-analytic representation of the component covariance matrices. This paper extends the MFA model to incorporate a restricted version of the multivariate skew-normal distribution to model the distribution of the latent component factors, called mixtures of skew-normal factor analyzers (MSNFA). The proposed MSNFA model allows us to relax the need for the normality assumption for the latent factors in order to accommodate skewness…
Normal mean-variance mixture distributions are widely applied to simplify a model's implementation and improve their computational efficiency under the Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach. Especially for distributions with normal mean-variance mixtures representation such as the multivariate skewed variance gamma (MSVG) distribution, it utilises the expectation-conditional-maximisation (ECM) algorithm to iteratively obtain the ML estimates. To facilitate application to financial time series, the mean is further extended to include autoregressive terms. Techniques are proposed to deal with the unb…
Graphical lasso is one of the most used estimators for inferring genetic networks. Despite its diffusion, there are several fields in applied research where the limits of detection of modern measurement technologies make the use of this estimator theoretically unfounded, even when the assumption of a multivariate Gaussian distribution is satisfied. Typical examples are data generated by polymerase chain reactions and flow cytometer. The combination of censoring and high-dimensionality make inference of the underlying genetic networks from these data very challenging. In this paper we propose a…
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew t-distributions are embedded to multivariate analysis with time-varying correlations. Bayesian prior works allow this approach to provide parsimonious skew structure and to easily scale up for high-dimensional problem. Analyses of daily stock returns are illustrated. Empirical results show that the time-varying correlations and the sparse skew structure contribute to im…
We perform a Bayesian analysis of the p-variate skew-t model, providing a new parameterization, a set of non-informative priors and a sampler specifically designed to explore the posterior density of the model parameters. Extensions, such as the multivariate regression model with skewed errors and the stochastic frontiers model, are easily accommodated. A novelty introduced in the paper is given by the extension of the bivariate skew-normal model given in Liseo & Parisi (2013) to a more realistic p-variate skew-t model. We also introduce the R package mvst, which allows to estimate the multiva…
We show how the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be applied exactly for the fitting of mixtures of general multivariate skew t (MST) distributions, eliminating the need for computationally expensive Monte Carlo estimation. Finite mixtures of MST distributions have proven to be useful in modelling heterogeneous data with asymmetric and heavy tail behaviour. Recently, they have been exploited as an effective tool for modelling flow cytometric data. However, without restrictions on the the characterizations of the component skew t-distributions, Monte Carlo methods have been used to fi…
Correlated binary response data with covariates are ubiquitous in longitudinal or spatial studies. Among the existing statistical models the most well-known one for this type of data is the multivariate probit model, which uses a Gaussian link to model dependence at the latent level. However, a symmetric link may not be appropriate if the data are highly imbalanced. Here, we propose a multivariate skew-elliptical link model for correlated binary responses, which includes the multivariate probit model as a special case. Furthermore, we perform Bayesian inference for this new model and prove tha…
A new robust class of multivariate skew distributions is introduced. Practical aspects such as parameter estimation method of the proposed class are discussed, we show that the proposed class can be fitted under a reasonable time frame. Our study shows that the class of distributions is capable to model multivariate skewness structure and does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality as heavily as other distributions of similar complexity do, such as the class of canonical skew distributions. We also derive a nested form of the proposed class which appears to be the most flexible class of m…
We introduce two classes of multivariate log skewed distributions with normal kernel: the log canonical fundamental skew-normal (log-CFUSN) and the log unified skew-normal (log-SUN). We also discuss some properties of the log-CFUSN family of distributions. These new classes of log-skewed distributions include the log-normal and multivariate log-skew normal families as particular cases. We discuss some issues related to Bayesian inference in the log-CFUSN family of distributions, mainly we focus on how to model the prior uncertainty about the skewing parameter. Based on the stochastic represent…
Many approximate Bayesian inference methods assume a particular parametric form for approximating the posterior distribution. A multivariate Gaussian distribution provides a convenient density for such approaches; examples include the Laplace, penalized quasi-likelihood, Gaussian variational, and expectation propagation methods. Unfortunately, these all ignore the potential skewness of the posterior distribution. We propose a modification that accounts for skewness, where key statistics of the posterior distribution are matched instead to a multivariate skew-normal distribution. A combination …
Harvey et al. (2010) extended the Bayesian estimation method by Sahu et al. (2003) to a multivariate skew-elliptical distribution with a general skewness matrix, and applied it to Bayesian portfolio optimization with higher moments. Although their method is epochal in the sense that it can handle the skewness dependency among asset returns and incorporate higher moments into portfolio optimization, it cannot identify all elements in the skewness matrix due to label switching in the Gibbs sampler. To deal with this identification issue, we propose to modify their sampling algorithm by imposing …
Mixtures of multivariate normal inverse Gaussian (MNIG) distributions can be used to cluster data that exhibit features such as skewness and heavy tails. However, for cluster analysis, using a traditional finite mixture model framework, either the number of components needs to be known $a$-$priori$ or needs to be estimated $a$-$posteriori$ using some model selection criterion after deriving results for a range of possible number of components. However, different model selection criteria can sometimes result in different number of components yielding uncertainty. Here, an infinite mixture model…
Families of mixtures of multivariate power exponential (MPE) distributions have been previously introduced and shown to be competitive for cluster analysis in comparison to other elliptical mixtures including mixtures of Gaussian distributions. Herein, we propose a family of mixtures of multivariate skewed power exponential distributions to combine the flexibility of the MPE distribution with the ability to model skewness. These mixtures are more robust to variations from normality and can account for skewness, varying tail weight, and peakedness of data. A generalized expectation-maximization…
Skewness is often present in a wide range of spatial prediction problems, and modeling it in the spatial context remains a challenging problem. In this study a skew-Gaussian random field is considered. The skew-Gaussian random field is constructed by using the multivariate closed skew-normal distribution, which is a generalization of the traditional normal distribution. We present a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for simulating realizations efficiently from the random field, and an algorithm for estimating parameters by maximum likelihood with a Monte Carlo approximation of the likelihood. We d…
This is an extended version of the paper Lee and McLachlan (2014b) with simulations and applications added. This paper introduces a finite mixture of canonical fundamental skew t (CFUST) distributions for a model-based approach to clustering where the clusters are asymmetric and possibly long-tailed (Lee and McLachlan, 2014b). The family of CFUST distributions includes the restricted multivariate skew t (rMST) and unrestricted multivariate skew t (uMST) distributions as special cases. In recent years, a few versions of the multivariate skew t (MST) model have been put forward, together with va…
In this paper, a new mixture family of multivariate normal distributions, formed by mixing multivariate normal distribution and skewed distribution, is constructed. Some properties of this family, such as characteristic function, moment generating function, and the first four moments are derived. The distributions of affine transformations and canonical forms of the model are also derived. An EM type algorithm is developed for the maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters. We have considered in detail, some special cases of the family, using standard gamma and standard exponential mixt…
Large, non-Gaussian spatial datasets pose a considerable modeling challenge as the dependence structure implied by the model needs to be captured at different scales, while retaining feasible inference. Skew-normal and skew-t distributions have only recently begun to appear in the spatial statistics literature, without much consideration, however, for the ability to capture dependence at multiple resolutions, and simultaneously achieve feasible inference for increasingly large data sets. This article presents the first multi-resolution spatial model inspired by the skew-t distribution, where a…
Frequentist and likelihood methods of inference based on the multivariate skew-normal model encounter several technical difficulties with this model. In spite of the popularity of this class of densities, there are no broadly satisfactory solutions for estimation and testing problems. A general population Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed which: 1) exploits the latent structure stochastic representation of skew-normal random variables to provide a full Bayesian analysis of the model and 2) accounts for the presence of constraints in the parameter space. The proposed approach can be defined as …
In many applied fields, such as genomics, different types of data are collected on the same system, and it is not uncommon that some of these datasets are subject to censoring as a result of the measurement technologies used, such as data generated by polymerase chain reactions and flow cytometer. When the overall objective is that of network inference, at possibly different levels of a system, information coming from different sources and/or different steps of the analysis can be integrated into one model with the use of conditional graphical models. In this paper, we develop a doubly penaliz…
Multivariate scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) variables are flexible models that account for non-normality in multivariate data scenarios by tail weight assessment and a shape vector representing the asymmetry of the model in a directional fashion. Its stochastic representation involves a skew-normal (SN) vector and a non negative mixing scalar variable, independent of the SN vector, that injects kurtosis into the SMSN model. We address the problem of finding the maximal skewness projection for vectors that follow a SMSN distribution; when simple conditions on the moments of the mixing var…
Mixture models whose components have skewed hypercube contours are developed via a generalization of the multivariate shifted asymmetric Laplace density. Specifically, we develop mixtures of multiple scaled shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions. The component densities have two unique features: they include a multivariate weight function, and the marginal distributions are also asymmetric Laplace. We use these mixtures of multiple scaled shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions for clustering applications, but they could equally well be used in the supervised or semi-supervised paradigms. T…
The contribution of this work is the introduction of a multivariate circular-linear (or poly- cylindrical) distribution obtained by combining the projected and the skew-normal. We show the flexibility of our proposal, its property of closure under marginalization and how to quantify multivariate dependence. Due to a non-identifiability issue that our proposal inherits from the projected normal, a compu- tational problem arises. We overcome it in a Bayesian framework, adding suitable latent variables and showing that posterior samples can be obtained with a post-processing of the estimation alg…
