欧洲恐怖主义和民族主义的威胁成因模型
Modelling Threat Causation for Religiosity and Nationalism in Europe
摘要：
近几十年来，英国脱欧和新冠肺炎等地缘政治动荡导致了巨大的变化，从而塑造了欧洲当代的政治格局。政策制定者应对当前疫情的方式可能对疫情消退后世界的前景产生重大影响。我们的目标是通过应用混合方法（调查和建模），从社会认知的角度研究COVID-19后有关民族主义，宗教信仰和反移民情绪的关系和交叉点的复杂问题;在前所未有的传染威胁造成巨大不稳定的背景下。关于民粹主义和民族主义的学术文献仍然存在重大空白。特别是，缺乏对进化的人类心理在应对持续威胁方面的作用的关注，这些威胁在文献中可分为四大类：捕食（通过被吃掉或以其他方式杀死而对生命造成的威胁），传染病（threats to one's life via physical infection）（通过身体感染对生命的威胁），自然的（通过自然灾害对生命的威胁）和社会（通过破坏社会地位对生命的威胁）。这些威胁已根据其对宗教和其他行为形式的影响进行了讨论，但尚未用于研究民族主义和民粹主义行为。在下文中，提出了两项研究，开始填补文献中的这一空白。第一个是一个调查，用于告知我们的理论框架，并探讨在网上样本的不同可能的关系。第二个是一个计算机模拟的研究。这两项研究（于2020年完成）在相关变量中发现了非常明确的影响，使我们能够确定需要进一步解释和研究的趋势，因为我们正在转向能够充分为政策讨论提供信息的模型。
英文摘要：
Europe's contemporary political landscape has been shaped by massive shifts in recent decades caused by geopolitical upheavals such as Brexit and now, COVID-19. The way in which policy makers respond to the current pandemic could have large effects on how the world looks after the pandemic subsides. We aim to investigate complex questions post COVID-19 around the relationships and intersections concerning nationalism, religiosity, and anti-immigrant sentiment from a socio-cognitive perspective by applying a mixed-method approach (survey and modelling); in a context where unprecedented contagion threats have caused huge instability. There are still significant gaps in the scholarly literature on populism and nationalism. In particular, there is a lack of attention to the role of evolved human psychology in responding to persistent threats, which can fall into four broad categories in the literature: predation (threats to one's life via being eaten or killed in some other way), contagion (threats to one's life via physical infection), natural (threats to one's life via natural disasters), and social (threats to one's life by destroying social standing). These threats have been discussed in light of their effects on religion and other forms of behaviour, but they have not been employed to study nationalist and populist behaviours. In what follows, two studies are presented that begin to fill this gap in the literature. The first is a survey used to inform our theoretical framework and explore the different possible relationships in an online sample. The second is a study of a computer simulation. Both studies (completed in 2020) found very clear effects among the relevant variables, enabling us to identify trends that require further explanation and research as we move toward models that can adequately inform policy discussions.
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