集体智慧的网络结构：小组讨论的偶然收益
Network Structures of Collective Intelligence: The Contingent Benefits of Group Discussion
摘要：
关于信念形成的研究产生了矛盾的结果，即小组成员之间的沟通是否以及何时会提高经济预测，医疗诊断和求职者评估等数字估计的准确性。虽然一些证据表明，仔细介导的过程，如“德尔菲法”产生更准确的信念比非结构化的讨论，其他人认为，非结构化的讨论优于介导的过程。还有一些人认为，独立的个体产生最准确的信念。本文展示了如何网络理论的信念形成可以解决这些不一致的，即使在群体缺乏明显的结构，在非正式的谈话。影响力的网络结构与讨论前的信念分布相互作用，以调节沟通对信念形成的影响。因此，沟通有时会增加，有时会降低群体中平均信念的准确性。介导的过程和非结构化的通信的效果不同，这样的相对利益的每一种通信格式取决于两个组的动态以及统计特性的预交互的信念。这些结果解决了以前研究中的矛盾，并为团队和组织提供了实用的建议。
英文摘要：
Research on belief formation has produced contradictory findings on whether and when communication between group members will improve the accuracy of numeric estimates such as economic forecasts, medical diagnoses, and job candidate assessments. While some evidence suggests that carefully mediated processes such as the "Delphi method" produce more accurate beliefs than unstructured discussion, others argue that unstructured discussion outperforms mediated processes. Still others argue that independent individuals produce the most accurate beliefs. This paper shows how network theories of belief formation can resolve these inconsistencies, even when groups lack apparent structure as in informal conversation. Emergent network structures of influence interact with the pre-discussion belief distribution to moderate the effect of communication on belief formation. As a result, communication sometimes increases and sometimes decreases the accuracy of the average belief in a group. The effects differ for mediated processes and unstructured communication, such that the relative benefit of each communication format depends on both group dynamics as well as the statistical properties of pre-interaction beliefs. These results resolve contradictions in previous research and offer practical recommendations for teams and organizations.
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