墨西哥蒙特雷凶杀案八年演变情况：网络办法
Eight years of homicide evolution in Monterrey, Mexico: a network approach
摘要：
毫无疑问，凶杀案是墨西哥最重要的安全问题之一，数据显示，在2007年宣布禁毒战争后不久，这种令人沮丧的暴力行为急剧上升。从那时起，暴力的战争区在墨西哥各地出现和消失，造成了难以估量的人员、社会和经济损失。其中最具象征意义的地区之一是蒙特雷市，这是毒品战争的中心场景。为了更好地了解暴力在城市中演变和蔓延的潜在机制，我们提出了一种基于网络的方法。为此，我们定义了一个杀人网络，其中节点是通过空间邻近性和犯罪相似性连接的地理实体。数据取自蒙特雷大都会地区86个月的犯罪数据库，其中包含手动管理的地理位置和日期的凶杀案，以及城市环境的开放街道地图。在这种方法下，我们首先确定独立的犯罪部门对应于不同的连接组件。这些犯罪集群中的每一个都呈现出与州和国家一级类似的犯罪演变。然后，我们展示了犯罪如何从社区传播到相邻的社区时，暴力主要是与卡特尔有关，以及如何在不同的时间主要是静态的。最后，我们通过研究安全和暴力社区到最近的高速公路的距离，以及通过研究卡特尔相关年份和随后时期的高速公路和犯罪距离的演变，展示了杀人犯罪与城市景观之间的关系。通过这种方法，我们能够更准确地描述大都市地区杀人犯罪的演变。
英文摘要：
Homicide is without doubt one of Mexico's most important security problems, with data showing that this dismal kind of violence sky-rocketed shortly after the war on drugs was declared in 2007. Since then, violent war-like zones have appeared and disappeared throughout Mexico, causing unfathomable human, social and economic losses. One of the most emblematic of these zones is the city of Monterrey, a central scenario in the narco-war. To better understand the underlying mechanisms by which violence has evolved and spread through the city, here we propose a network-based approach. For this purpose, we define a homicide network where nodes are geographical entities that are connected through spatial proximity and crime similarity. Data is taken from a crime database spanning 86 months in the Monterrey metropolitan area, containing manually curated geo-located and dated homicides, as well as from Open Street Map for urban environment. Under this approach, we first identify independent crime sectors corresponding to different connected components. Each of these clusters of crime presents crime evolution similar to the one at state and national levels. We then show how crime spread from neighborhood to adjacent neighborhoods when violence was mainly cartel-related and how it was chiefly static at a different time. Finally, we show a relation between homicidal crime and urban landscape by studying the distance of safe and violent neighborhoods to the closest highway and by studying the evolution of highway and crime distance over the cartel-related years and the following period. With this approach, we are able to describe more accurately the evolution of homicidal crime in a metropolitan area.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
