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arXiv 2009.03409cond-mat.stat-mech
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传染病传播的随机方法

Stochastic approach to epidemic spreading

Tânia Tomé, Mário J. de Oliveira

摘要:

我们分析了四个模型的传染病传播使用随机方法,其中的主要随机变量是在每个类中的个人的数量。随机方法由主方程描述,并利用质量作用定律建立了感染或恢复等过程的转移率。我们对每一类个体的平均数量进行了数值模拟以及演化方程的数值积分。传染病传播的开始是通过对无病状态的线性分析获得的,由此得出感染者的初始指数增长和新病例的频率。序参量和个体数的方差也得到表征传染病传播的开始作为一个关键的相变。

英文摘要:

We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition rate for each process such as infection or recovery are set up by using the law of mass action. We perform numerical simulations as well as numerical integration of the evolution equations for the average number of each class of individuals. The onset of the epidemic spreading is obtained by a linear analysis of the disease free state, from which follows the initial exponential increase of the infected and the frequency of new cases. The order parameter and the variance in the number of individuals are also obtained characterizing the onset of epidemic spreading as a critical phase transition.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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