海洋上层热含量估计时空变化的不确定性的量化：国际协调比较
Quantifying uncertainty in spatio-temporal changes of upper-ocean heat content estimates: an internationally coordinated comparison
摘要：
由于人类活动，地球系统正在积累能量。自1970年以来，超过90%的这种能量以热量的形式储存在海洋中，其中约64%储存在700米以上。然而，在海洋上层热含量异常（OHCA）的估计存在差异。在这里，我们评估的传播上OHCA估计所产生的选择，仪器偏差校正和映射方法，除了使用一个共同的海洋面具的效果。同一数据集由六个研究小组绘制了1970年至2008年的地图，其中六个仪器偏差校正应用于一次性深海温度计（XBT）数据。我们发现，使用一个共同的海洋面具可能会影响估计全球OHCA +-13%。由于映射方法的不确定性占主导地位的XBT偏差校正在全球范围内，是最大的在印度洋和所有盆地的涡流丰富和锋区。由于XBT偏差校正的不确定性在30 N至30 S的太平洋最大。在映射和XBT的情况下，自20世纪90年代以来，传播更高。在观测良好的西北大西洋和观测不佳的南大洋，发现各种制图方法在空间趋势方面存在重大差异。虽然我们的研究结果不能确定最好的映射或偏差校正方案，但它们确定了何时何地存在更大的不确定性，因此进一步改进可能会产生最大的改进。我们的研究结果强调了未来的国际协调，以评估现有的映射方法的性能的必要性。
英文摘要：
The Earth system is accumulating energy due to human-induced activities. More than 90 percent of this energy has been stored in the ocean as heat since 1970, with about 64 percent of that in the upper 700 m. Differences in upper ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA) estimates, however, exist. Here, we evaluate spread in upper OHCA estimates arising from choices in instrumental bias corrections and mapping methods, in addition to the effect of using a common ocean mask. The same dataset was mapped by six research groups for 1970 to 2008, with six instrumental bias corrections applied to expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. We find that use of a common ocean mask may impact estimation of global OHCA by +- 13 percent. Uncertainty due to mapping method dominates over XBT bias correction at a global scale and is largest in the Indian Ocean and in the eddy-rich and frontal regions of all basins. Uncertainty due to XBT bias correction is largest in the Pacific Ocean within 30N to 30S. In both mapping and XBT cases, spread is higher since the 1990s. Important differences in spatial trends among mapping methods are found in the well-observed Northwest Atlantic and the poorly-observed Southern Ocean. Although our results cannot identify the best mapping or bias correction schemes, they identify where and when greater uncertainties exist, and so where further refinements may yield the largest improvements. Our results highlight the need for a future international coordination to evaluate performance of existing mapping methods.
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