预测2018年FIFA男子世界杯的人群智慧
Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup
摘要：
国际足联男子世界杯足球赛（WCT）是最重要的足球（足球）比赛，吸引了全世界的关注。巴西足球迷的一个流行做法是组织比赛，每个参与者都要对每场比赛的最终比分进行猜测。然后根据一些评分规则对参与者进行排名。受这些比赛的启发，我们创建了一个网站来举办在线比赛，参与者被要求对即将到来的WCT比赛的结果进行概率分析。每一轮比赛结束后，所有用户的排名根据适当的评分规则公布。本文研究了一些旨在提取群众智慧的方法的性能，这些方法是使用部分或全部可用预测的聚合预测。后者的方法相比，更简单的预测策略，以及统计预测模型。我们的研究结果证实了这一假设，至少在体育赛事中，群众的智慧提供了一个有竞争力的预测策略。具体来说，其中一些策略能够在我们的比赛中获得高分。
英文摘要：
The FIFA Men's World Cup Tournament (WCT) is the most important football (soccer) competition, attracting worldwide attention. A popular practice among football fans in Brazil is to organize contests in which each participant informs guesses on the final score of each match. The participants are then ranked according to some scoring rule. Inspired by these contests, we created a website to hold an online contest, in which participants were asked for their probabilities on the outcomes of upcoming matches of the WCT. After each round of the tournament, the ranking of all users based on a proper scoring rule were published. This paper studies the performance of some methods intended to extract the wisdom of the crowds, which are aggregated forecasts that uses some or all of the forecasts available. The later methods are compared to simpler forecasting strategies as well as to statistical prediction models. Our findings corroborate the hypothesis that, at least for sporting events, the wisdom of the crowds offers a competitive forecasting strategy. Specifically, some of these strategies were able to achieve high scores in our contest.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
