鸟类丰度的趋势在受保护的森林中有所不同，但在鸟类协会中则无差异
Trends in bird abundance differ among protected forests but not bird guilds
摘要：
改善监测和相关的推理工具，以有效地识别下降的鸟类种群，特别是稀有或稀疏分布的物种，是在大的时空区域知情的保护和管理的关键。我们使用一种新的层次模型评估了2006-2019年美国东北部8个国家公园森林网络中106种鸟类的丰度趋势。我们开发了一个多物种，多区域的移除采样模型，该模型在物种和公园之间共享信息，以推断稀有物种和稀疏采样的公园，并评估当地森林结构的影响。随着时间的推移，鸟类丰度的趋势在公园之间差异很大，但公园内的物种表现出相似的趋势。三个公园（Escherdia，Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller和Morristown）所有物种的鸟类丰度都有所下降，而三个公园（Saratoga，Roosevelt-Vanderbilt和Weir-Farm）则有所增加。鸟类丰度在中等水平的断面积和高水平的百分比森林和森林再生，与百分比森林有最大的影响。这些影响在公园之间的变化可能是森林结构阶段和多样性差异的结果。我们的新的层次模型，使丰富的网络，公园，行会和物种水平的估计。我们发现，在丰富的趋势在公园之间的变化很大，但不是在鸟类公会，这表明当地的森林条件可能有一个广泛的和一致的影响，在一个给定的公园内的整个鸟类群落。管理层应针对鸟类丰度总体呈下降趋势的三个公园，进一步确定哪些具体因素导致了整个鸟类群落的下降。了解鸟类群落如何对当地森林结构和其他压力源作出反应，对于明智和持久的管理至关重要。
英文摘要：
Improved monitoring and associated inferential tools to efficiently identify declining bird populations, particularly of rare or sparsely distributed species, is key to informed conservation and management across large spatio-temporal regions. We assess abundance trends for 106 bird species in a network of eight national park forests located within the northeast USA from 2006-2019 using a novel hierarchical model. We develop a multi-species, multi-region removal sampling model that shares information across species and parks to enable inference on rare species and sparsely sampled parks and to evaluate the effects of local forest structure. Trends in bird abundance over time varied widely across parks, but species showed similar trends within parks. Three parks (Acadia, Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller, and Morristown) decreased in bird abundance across all species, while three parks (Saratoga, Roosevelt-Vanderbilt, and Weir-Farm) increased in abundance. Bird abundance peaked at medium levels of basal area and high levels of percent forest and forest regeneration, with percent forest having the largest effect. Variation in these effects across parks could be a result of differences in forest structural stage and diversity. Our novel hierarchical model enables estimates of abundance at the network, park, guild, and species levels. We found large variation in abundance trends across parks but not across bird guilds, suggesting that local forest condition may have a broad and consistent effect on the entire bird community within a given park. Management should target the three parks with overall decreasing trends in bird abundance to further identify what specific factors are driving observed declines across the bird community. Understanding how bird communities respond to local forest structure and other stressors is crucial for informed and lasting management.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
