Reasoning with declarative knowledge (RDK) and sequential decision-making (SDM) are two key research areas in artificial intelligence. RDK methods reason with declarative domain knowledge, including commonsense knowledge, that is either provided a priori or acquired over time, while SDM methods (probabilistic planning and reinforcement learning) seek to compute action policies that maximize the expected cumulative utility over a time horizon; both classes of methods reason in the presence of uncertainty. Despite the rich literature in these two areas, researchers have not fully explored their complementary strengths. In this paper, we survey algorithms that leverage RDK methods while making sequential decisions under uncertainty. We discuss significant developments, open problems, and directions for future work.
Algorithmic fairness in decision-making has been studied extensively in static settings where one-shot decisions are made on tasks such as classification. However, in practice most decision-making processes are of a sequential nature, where decisions made in the past may have an impact on future data. This is particularly the case when decisions affect the individuals or users generating the data used for future decisions. In this survey, we review existing literature on the fairness of data-driven sequential decision-making. We will focus on two types of sequential decisions: (1) past decisio…
In this paper, we present a link between preference-based and multiobjective sequential decision-making. While transforming a multiobjective problem to a preference-based one is quite natural, the other direction is a bit less obvious. We present how this transformation (from preference-based to multiobjective) can be done under the classic condition that preferences over histories can be represented by additively decomposable utilities and that the decision criterion to evaluate policies in a state is based on expectation. This link yields a new source of multiobjective sequential decision-ma…
In this article we propose a qualitative (ordinal) counterpart for the Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes model (POMDP) in which the uncertainty, as well as the preferences of the agent, are modeled by possibility distributions. This qualitative counterpart of the POMDP model relies on a possibilistic theory of decision under uncertainty, recently developed. One advantage of such a qualitative framework is its ability to escape from the classical obstacle of stochastic POMDPs, in which even with a finite state space, the obtained belief state space of the POMDP is infinite. Instead…
We describe a method for time-critical decision making involving sequential tasks and stochastic processes. The method employs several iterative refinement routines for solving different aspects of the decision making problem. This paper concentrates on the meta-level control problem of deliberation scheduling, allocating computational resources to these routines. We provide different models corresponding to optimization problems that capture the different circumstances and computational strategies for decision making under time constraints. We consider precursor models in which all decision m…
SUNY Binghamton（纽约州立大学宾汉姆顿分校）；University of Indianapolis（印第安纳波利斯大学）
Robots frequently face complex tasks that require more than one action, where sequential decision-making (SDM) capabilities become necessary. The key contribution of this work is a robot SDM framework, called LCORPP, that supports the simultaneous capabilities of supervised learning for passive state estimation, automated reasoning with declarative human knowledge, and planning under uncertainty toward achieving long-term goals. In particular, we use a hybrid reasoning paradigm to refine the state estimator, and provide informative priors for the probabilistic planner. In experiments, a mobile…
As increasingly complex AI systems are introduced into our daily lives, it becomes important for such systems to be capable of explaining the rationale for their decisions and allowing users to contest these decisions. A significant hurdle to allowing for such explanatory dialogue could be the vocabulary mismatch between the user and the AI system. This paper introduces methods for providing contrastive explanations in terms of user-specified concepts for sequential decision-making settings where the system's model of the task may be best represented as an inscrutable model. We do this by buil…
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；University of Ballarat（巴拉瑞特大学）
Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives. Though there is a growing body of literature on this subject, little of it makes explicit under what circumstances special methods are needed to solve multi-objective problems. Therefore, we identify three distinct scenarios in which converting such a problem to …
Responsibility Gap and Diffusion in Sequential Decision-Making Mechanisms
Institute of Logic and Intelligence, Southwest University, Chongqing, China（逻辑与智能研究所，西南大学，重庆，中国）；University of Southampton, Southampton, the United Kingdom（南安普顿大学，南安普顿，英国）
Blame attribution is one of the key aspects of accountable decision making, as it provides means to quantify the responsibility of an agent for a decision making outcome. In this paper, we study blame attribution in the context of cooperative multi-agent sequential decision making. As a particular setting of interest, we focus on cooperative decision making formalized by Multi-Agent Markov Decision Processes (MMDPs), and we analyze different blame attribution methods derived from or inspired by existing concepts in cooperative game theory. We formalize desirable properties of blame attribution…
Concordia Institute of Information System Engineering（康考迪亚信息系统工程研究院）；Concordia University（康考迪亚大学）；John Molson School of Business（约翰莫尔森商学院）
We present a scheme for sequential decision making with a risk-sensitive objective and constraints in a dynamic environment. A neural network is trained as an approximator of the mapping from parameter space to space of risk and policy with risk-sensitive constraints. For a given risk-sensitive problem, in which the objective and constraints are, or can be estimated by, functions of the mean and variance of return, we generate a synthetic dataset as training data. Parameters defining a targeted process might be dynamic, i.e., they might vary over time, so we sample them within specified interv…
In this paper, we propose a framework for achieving long-term fair sequential decision making. By conducting both the hard and soft interventions, we propose to take path-specific effects on the time-lagged causal graph as a quantitative tool for measuring long-term fairness. The problem of fair sequential decision making is then formulated as a constrained optimization problem with the utility as the objective and the long-term and short-term fairness as constraints. We show that such an optimization problem can be converted to a performative risk optimization. Finally, repeated risk minimiza…
Duke University（杜克大学）；University at Buffalo（布法罗大学）
Learning probability distributions on the weights of neural networks (NNs) has recently proven beneficial in many applications. Bayesian methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), offer an elegant framework to reason about NN model uncertainty. However, by assuming independent Gaussian priors for the individual NN weights (as often applied), SVGD does not impose prior knowledge that there is often structural information (dependence) among weights. We propose efficient posterior learning of structural weight uncertainty, within an SVGD framework, by employing matrix variate Gau…
University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）；General Motors Research（通用汽车研究院）
We introduce a novel framework for causal explanations of stochastic, sequential decision-making systems built on the well-studied structural causal model paradigm for causal reasoning. This single framework can identify multiple, semantically distinct explanations for agent actions -- something not previously possible. In this paper, we establish exact methods and several approximation techniques for causal inference on Markov decision processes using this framework, followed by results on the applicability of the exact methods and some run time bounds. We discuss several scenarios that illus…
Information Sciences Institute（信息科学研究所）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）
We consider problems of making sequences of decisions to accomplish tasks, interacting via the medium of language. These problems are often tackled with reinforcement learning approaches. We find that these models do not generalize well when applied to novel task domains. However, the large amount of computation necessary to adequately train and explore the search space of sequential decision making, under a reinforcement learning paradigm, precludes the inclusion of large contextualized language models, which might otherwise enable the desired generalization ability. We introduce a teacher-st…
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms have achieved great success on sequential decision-making problems, yet is criticized for the lack of data-efficiency and explainability. Especially, explainability of subtasks is critical in hierarchical decision-making since it enhances the transparency of black-box-style DRL methods and helps the RL practitioners to understand the high-level behavior of the system better. To improve the data-efficiency and explainability of DRL, declarative knowledge is introduced in this work and a novel algorithm is proposed by integrating DRL with symbolic pla…
University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
As automated decision making and decision assistance systems become common in everyday life, research on the prevention or mitigation of potential harms that arise from decisions made by these systems has proliferated. However, various research communities have independently conceptualized these harms, envisioned potential applications, and proposed interventions. The result is a somewhat fractured landscape of literature focused generally on ensuring decision-making algorithms "do the right thing". In this paper, we compare and discuss work across two major subsets of this literature: algorit…
Remembering to Be Fair: Non-Markovian Fairness in Sequential Decision Making
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）；Schwartz Reisman Institute for Technology and Society（施瓦茨·赖斯曼技术与社会研究所）；University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）
Recently, it has been shown how sampling actions from the predictive distribution over the optimal action-sometimes called Thompson sampling-can be applied to solve sequential adaptive control problems, when the optimal policy is known for each possible environment. The predictive distribution can then be constructed by a Bayesian superposition of the optimal policies weighted by their posterior probability that is updated by Bayesian inference and causal calculus. Here we discuss three important features of this approach. First, we discuss in how far such Thompson sampling can be regarded as …
Can Induced Emotion Bias LLM Behaviors in Sequential Decision Making?
MBZUAI（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；Texas A&M University（德州农工大学）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Mass General Hospital（麻省总医院）；Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）
McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；Mila - Quebec AI Institute（米拉 - 魁北克人工智能研究所）
The von Neumann-Morgenstern (VNM) utility theorem shows that under certain axioms of rationality, decision-making is reduced to maximizing the expectation of some utility function. We extend these axioms to increasingly structured sequential decision making settings and identify the structure of the corresponding utility functions. In particular, we show that memoryless preferences lead to a utility in the form of a per transition reward and multiplicative factor on the future return. This result motivates a generalization of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with this structure on the agent's …
Center for Educational Testing and Evaluation（教育测试与评估中心）；Department of Computer Science（计算机科学系）；University of Kansas（堪萨斯大学）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
We describe theoretical bounds and a practical algorithm for teaching a model by demonstration in a sequential decision making environment. Unlike previous efforts that have optimized learners that watch a teacher demonstrate a static policy, we focus on the teacher as a decision maker who can dynamically choose different policies to teach different parts of the environment. We develop several teaching frameworks based on previously defined supervised protocols, such as Teaching Dimension, extending them to handle noise and sequences of inputs encountered in an MDP.We provide theoretical bound…
DeepMind（深度思维）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Google Research India（谷歌印度研究院）；University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）
This paper introduces a simple efficient learning algorithms for general sequential decision making. The algorithm combines Optimism for exploration with Maximum Likelihood Estimation for model estimation, which is thus named OMLE. We prove that OMLE learns the near-optimal policies of an enormously rich class of sequential decision making problems in a polynomial number of samples. This rich class includes not only a majority of known tractable model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems (such as tabular MDPs, factored MDPs, low witness rank problems, tabular weakly-revealing/observable …
There are over 15 distinct communities that work in the general area of sequential decisions and information, often referred to as decisions under uncertainty or stochastic optimization. We focus on two of the most important fields: stochastic optimal control, with its roots in deterministic optimal control, and reinforcement learning, with its roots in Markov decision processes. Building on prior work, we describe a unified framework that covers all 15 different communities, and note the strong parallels with the modeling framework of stochastic optimal control. By contrast, we make the case …
Regret minimization is a powerful tool for solving large-scale extensive-form games. State-of-the-art methods rely on minimizing regret locally at each decision point. In this work we derive a new framework for regret minimization on sequential decision problems and extensive-form games with general compact convex sets at each decision point and general convex losses, as opposed to prior work which has been for simplex decision points and linear losses. We call our framework laminar regret decomposition. It generalizes the CFR algorithm to this more general setting. Furthermore, our framework …
Omni-scale Learning-based Sequential Decision Framework for Order Fulfillment of Tote-handling Robotic Systems
Institution of Data and Information, Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Nanshan District, Shenzhen 518055, China（数据与信息研究所，深圳国际研究生院，清华大学，南山区，深圳518055，中国）
Large Sequence Models for Sequential Decision-Making: A Survey
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Digital Brain Lab（数字大脑实验室）；Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Peking University（北京大学）；the University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
Decision makers involved in the management of civil assets and systems usually take actions under constraints imposed by societal regulations. Some of these constraints are related to epistemic quantities, as the probability of failure events and the corresponding risks. Sensors and inspectors can provide useful information supporting the control process (e.g. the maintenance process of an asset), and decisions about collecting this information should rely on an analysis of its cost and value. When societal regulations encode an economic perspective that is not aligned with that of the decisio…
This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty that goes beyond this classical interpretation, particularly by employing a clear distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The paper features an overview of Markov decision processes (MDPs) and extensions to account for partial observability and adversarial behavior. These models sufficiently capture aleatoric uncertainty but fail to account for…
Moving beyond the dualistic view in AI where agent and environment are separated incurs new challenges for decision making, as calculation of expected utility is no longer straightforward. The non-dualistic decision theory literature is split between causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. We extend these decision algorithms to the sequential setting where the agent alternates between taking actions and observing their consequences. We find that evidential decision theory has two natural extensions while causal decision theory only has one.
We investigate the limitations of random trials when the cause of interest is confounded with the effect by formalizing a counterfactual policy-space where the agent's natural predilection is input to a soft-intervention.
IRIT - Universite Paul Sabatier（IRIT - 保罗·萨巴捷大学）；INRA（法国国家农业研究院）
The Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) framework offers a simple and sound basis for representing and solving simple decision problems, without uncertainty. This paper is devoted to an extension of the CSP framework enabling us to deal with some decisions problems under uncertainty. This extension relies on a differentiation between the agent-controllable decision variables and the uncontrollable parameters whose values depend on the occurrence of uncertain events. The uncertainty on the values of the parameters is assumed to be given under the form of a probability distribution. Two algori…
There has long been debate about the relative merits of decision theoretic methods and heuristic rule-based approaches for reasoning under uncertainty. We report an experimental comparison of the performance of the two approaches to troubleshooting, specifically to test selection for fault diagnosis. We use as experimental testbed the problem of diagnosing motorcycle engines. The first approach employs heuristic test selection rules obtained from expert mechanics. We compare it with the optimal decision analytic algorithm for test selection which employs estimated component failure probabiliti…
