利用常规监测和健康调查数据绘制马达加斯加疟疾流行率的时空图
Spatiotemporal mapping of malaria prevalence in Madagascar using routine surveillance and health survey data
摘要：
马达加斯加的疟疾传播具有高度异质性，表现出空间、季节和长期趋势。以前在马达加斯加绘制疟疾风险图的工作使用了疟疾指标调查的流行率数据。这些横断面调查是在2013年和2016年的高传播季节进行的，提供了具有全国代表性的流行率数据，但覆盖的时间相对较短。相反，每月病例数据是在卫生设施收集的，但存在偏差，包括报告不完整。我们结合调查和病例数据，绘制了2013年至2016年的每月患病率地图。卫生设施集水区估计和发病率表面，环境和社会经济的协变量，调查数据告知贝叶斯流行模型。流行率估计在沿海地区一直很高，而在高地很低。患病率在2014年最低，在2015年达到峰值，突出了调查年份之间估计的重要性。季节性被广泛观察到。类似的多指标方法可能适用于整个撒哈拉以南非洲。
英文摘要：
Malaria transmission in Madagascar is highly heterogeneous, exhibiting spatial, seasonal and long-term trends. Previous efforts to map malaria risk in Madagascar used prevalence data from Malaria Indicator Surveys. These cross-sectional surveys, conducted during the high transmission season most recently in 2013 and 2016, provide nationally representative prevalence data but cover relatively short time frames. Conversely, monthly case data are collected at health facilities but suffer from biases, including incomplete reporting. We combined survey and case data to make monthly maps of prevalence between 2013 and 2016. Health facility catchments were estimated and incidence surfaces, environmental and socioeconomic covariates, and survey data informed a Bayesian prevalence model. Prevalence estimates were consistently high in the coastal regions and low in the highlands. Prevalence was lowest in 2014 and peaked in 2015, highlighting the importance of estimates between survey years. Seasonality was widely observed. Similar multi-metric approaches may be applicable across sub-Saharan Africa.
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