arXiv 2008.081972020-08stat.AP

井下安全阀可靠性建模的非比例风险回归模型及其故障诊断

Incorporation of frailties into a non-proportional hazard regression model and its diagnostics for reliability modeling of downhole safety valves

Francisco Louzada, José A. Cuminato, Oscar M. H. Rodriguez, Vera L. D. Tomazella, Eder A. Milani, Paulo H. Ferreira, Pedro L. Ramos, Gustavo Bochio, Ivan C. Per… 展开作者

Francisco Louzada, José A. Cuminato, Oscar M. H. Rodriguez, Vera L. D. Tomazella, Eder A. Milani, Paulo H. Ferreira, Pedro L. Ramos, Gustavo Bochio, Ivan C. Perissini, Oilson A. Gonzatto Junior, Alex L. Mota, Luis F. A. Alegría, Danilo Colombo, Paulo G. O. Oliveira, Hugo F. L. Santos, Marcus V. C. Magalhães

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摘要：

在本文中，我们的建议包括将脆弱性纳入一个统计方法学建模时间到事件的数据，非比例风险回归模型的基础上。具体而言，我们使用广义时间依赖逻辑（GTDL）模型与脆弱项引入的风险函数控制之间的抽样单元的不可观察的异质性。我们还在测量时间效应的参数中添加了回归，因为它可以直接反映协变量对失效时间效应的影响。所提出的模型的实际相关性说明在一个实际问题的基础上的数据集用于海上石油和天然气生产井井下安全阀（DHSV）。DHSV的可靠性评估可用于预测井喷发生，评估修井需求和辅助决策。

英文摘要：

In this paper, our proposal consists of incorporating frailty into a statistical methodology for modeling time-to-event data, based on non-proportional hazards regression model. Specifically, we use the generalized time-dependent logistic (GTDL) model with a frailty term introduced in the hazard function to control for unobservable heterogeneity among the sampling units. We also add a regression in the parameter that measures the effect of time, since it can directly reflect the influence of covariates on the effect of time-to-failure. The practical relevance of the proposed model is illustrated in a real problem based on a data set for downhole safety valves (DHSVs) used in offshore oil and gas production wells. The reliability estimation of DHSVs can be used, among others, to predict the blowout occurrence, assess the workover demand and aid decision-making actions.

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