COVID-19：如果免疫力下降怎么办？
COVID-19: What If Immunity Wanes?
摘要：
使用一个简单的经济模型，其中社会距离减少传染，我们研究免疫力下降的流行病学动态和社会活动的影响。如果免疫力减弱，我们发现COVID-19可能会成为地方性疾病，在发现疫苗或治愈方法之前，社交距离将持续存在。但免疫力减弱并不一定会改变大流行开始时的最佳行动。在接近感染高峰之前，分散平衡实际上与免疫力减弱无关。对于集中均衡，免疫力减弱的相关性降低了找到疫苗或治愈的概率，感染的成本（例如，感染致死率），以及其他降低传染性的NPI的存在（例如，使用口罩）。在校准到2020年7月的模拟中，我们的模型表明，至少在2021年之前，免疫力减弱对集中式均衡几乎不重要。这为个人和政策制定者提供了重要的时间，以便在SARS-CoV-2变得至关重要之前了解免疫力。
英文摘要：
Using a simple economic model in which social-distancing reduces contagion, we study the implications of waning immunity for the epidemiological dynamics and social activity. If immunity wanes, we find that COVID-19 likely becomes endemic and that social-distancing is here to stay until the discovery of a vaccine or cure. But waning immunity does not necessarily change optimal actions on the onset of the pandemic. Decentralized equilibria are virtually independent of waning immunity until close to peak infections. For centralized equilibria, the relevance of waning immunity decreases in the probability of finding a vaccine or cure, the costs of infection (e.g., infection-fatality rate), and the presence of other NPIs that lower contagion (e.g., quarantining and mask use). In simulations calibrated to July 2020, our model suggests that waning immunity is virtually unimportant for centralized equilibria until at least 2021. This provides vital time for individuals and policymakers to learn about immunity against SARS-CoV-2 before it becomes critical.
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