M. T. Barlow
We consider a supercritical branching process and define a contact tracing mechanism on its genealogical tree. We calculate the growth rate of the post tracing process, and give conditions under which the tracing is strong enough to drive the process to extinction.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
继续探索
We determine the distributions of some random variables related to a simple model of an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation. This enables us to apply general limit theorems for super-critical Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes. Notably, we compute explicitly the asymptotic proportion of isolated clusters with a given size amongst all isolated clusters, conditionally on survival of the epidemic. Somewhat surprisingly, the latter differs from the distribution of the size of a typical cluster at the time of its detection; and we explain the reasons behind this seeming paradox.
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious contacts, who are then removed if they have not been already after some tracing delay. The epidemic is analysed via an approximating, modified birth-death process, for which a type-reproduction number is derived in terms of unnamed individuals, that is shown to be infinite when the contact rate is sufficiently large. We obtain explicit results under the assumpti…
We consider branching random walks and contact processes on infinite, connected, locally finite graphs whose reproduction and infectivity rates across edges are inversely proportional to vertex degree. We show that when the ambient graph is a Galton-Watson tree then, in certain circumstances, the branching random walks and contact processes will have weak survival phases. We also provide bounds on critical values.
Epidemic models with digital and manual contact tracing
本文研究了数字和手动接触追踪对流行病传播的影响，通过构建多型分支过程模型，推导出再生数R和个体再生数R^(ind)，并比较了两种接触追踪方式的临界阈值。
We consider the subcritical contact branching random walk on Zd in continuous time with the arbitrary number of offspring and with immigration. We prove the existence of the steady state (statistical equilibrium).
Quarantining and contact tracing are popular ad hoc practices for mitigating epidemic outbreaks. However, few mathematical theories are currently available to asses the role of a network in the effectiveness of these practices. In this paper, we study how the final size of an epidemic is influenced by the procedure that combines contact tracing and quarantining on a network null model: the configuration model. Namely, we suppose that infected vertices may self-quarantine and trace their infector with a given success probability. A traced infector is, in turn, less likely to infect others. We s…
We consider a model for an infectious disease in the onset of an outbreak. We introduce contact tracing incorporating a tracing delay. The effect of randomness in the delay and the effect of the length of this delay in comparison to the infectious period of the disease respectively to a latency period on the effect of tracing, given e.g. by the change of the reproduction number, is analyzed. We focus particularly on the effect of randomness in the tracing delay.
An SEIR network epidemic model with manual and digital contact tracing allowing delays
本文研究允许延迟的 SEIR 网络流行病模型，结合手动与数字接触追踪，通过多类型分支过程推导再生数，量化两种机制有效性，指出组合追踪可降 $R_0$ 约 20-30%，但仍需其他措施降至 1.2-1.4 以避免大爆发。
Effectiveness of Contact Tracing on Networks with Cliques
本研究通过简化模型和平均场近似，证明在具有团簇结构的社交网络中，接触追踪可切断间接传播路径，且群体越大效率越高，优于完全混合或树状网络模型的预测。
Test allocation based on risk of infection from first and second order contact tracing
针对资源有限下传统流行病防控策略低效的问题，提出基于一二阶接触传播链计算个体感染风险以精准分配检测资源的方法，并通过基于智能体的模拟实验验证其效果。
Sideward contact tracing in an epidemic model with mixing groups
本研究提出一种具有侧向接触追踪的随机流行病模型，通过宏观分支过程近似早期传播，推导有效繁殖数阈值，并分析其受混合事件大小、诊断率和追踪概率的影响。
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing information related to persons with whom they have had possibly infectious contacts. The population evolves through demographic, infection and detection processes, in a way that its temporal evolution is described by a stochastic Markov process, of which the component accounting for the contact-tracing feature is assumed to be valued in a space of point meas…
Contact tracing via digital tracking applications installed on mobile phones is an important tool for controlling epidemic spreading. Its effectivity can be quantified by modifying the standard methodology for analyzing percolation and connectivity of contact networks. We apply this framework to networks with varying degree distributions, numbers of application users, and probabilities of quarantine failures. Further, we study structured populations with homophily and heterophily and the possibility of degree-targeted application distribution. Our results are based on a combination of explicit…
扫码添加微信好友，提出您的宝贵建议 👇
💡 备注请填写：网站反馈
发表机构由 AI 从论文文本抽取，如发现错误，欢迎反馈修正建议。