厄尔尼诺-南方涛动如何影响南美洲的太阳能辐射预测？自相似性分析方法
How Does ENSO Impact the Solar Radiation Forecast in South America? The Self-affinity Analysis Approach
AI总结：
本文通过自相似性分析方法研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对南美洲太阳能辐射预测的影响，揭示其对太阳能发电长期潜力预测的潜在影响。
摘要：
当今能源领域面临的重大挑战是用对环境影响较小的方式满足日益增长的电力需求。南美洲是可再生能源的重要参与者。巴西在2018年加速了光伏装机容量的增长。从2017年4月至2018年4月，装机容量增加了1351.5%。预计到年底将达到2.4 GW。新的智利法规要求到2025年，总电力生产中20%必须来自可再生能源。本文旨在建立厄尔尼诺-南方涛动与南美洲太阳能辐射资源之间的时间序列行为变化。结果可用于验证新太阳能电站的电力生产预测。用于验证时间序列行为的方法是去趋势波动分析。太阳能辐射数据在巴西太阳能带内的25个城市以及智利的6个城市收集，覆盖了从东到西的整个大陆，该地区具有高潜力的太阳能光伏发电能力。结果显示了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对所评估数据气候行为的影响。这是一个可能导致该地区长期潜在太阳能发电量预测错误的因素。
英文摘要：
The major challenge we face today in the energy sector is to meet the growing demand for electricity with less impact on the environment. South America is an important player in the renewable energy resource. Brazil accelerated the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2018. From April of 2017 to April of 2018, the capacity increased $1351.5\%$. It is expected to reach the value of $2.4\ GW$ until the end of the year. The new Chilean regulation request that 20\% of the total electricity production in 2025 must come from renewable energy sources. The aim of this paper is to establish time series behavior changes between El Niño Southern Oscillation and the solar radiation resource in South America. The results can be used to validate forecasts of energy production for new solar plants. The method used to verify the behavior of the time series was the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. Solar radiation data were collected in twenty-five cities distributed inside the Brazilian solar belt, plus six cities in Chile, covering the continent from east to west, in a region with high potential of solar photovoltaic generation. The results shows the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the climatic behavior of the evaluated data. It is a factor that may lead to the wrong forecast of the long term potential solar power generation for the region.
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