新冠肺炎印度区室模型：通过地理、结构和反应异质性的预测和干预策略
An India-specific Compartmental Model for Covid-19: Projections and Intervention Strategies by Incorporating Geographical, Infrastructural and Response Heterogeneity
摘要：
我们提出了一个新冠肺炎在印度传播的房室元人群模型。我们的模型使用适用于COVID-19的流行病学模型模拟了地区或州一级的人群。利用现有的人口普查数据建立的交通矩阵将不同的地区连接起来。我们在模型中引入了检测率的不确定性，该模型考虑了不同州对疫情的不同反应以及公共医疗系统状况的因素。我们的模型使我们能够对新型冠状病毒在印度的传播进行定性预测，并进一步使我们能够调查不同拟议干预措施的影响。通过在地理和基础设施水平和当地反应的异质性，我们的模型旨在捕捉一些流行病学建模的复杂性，适合于一个不同的国家，如印度。
英文摘要：
We present a compartmental meta-population model for the spread of Covid-19 in India. Our model simulates populations at a district or state level using an epidemiological model that is appropriate to Covid-19. Different districts are connected by a transportation matrix developed using available census data. We introduce uncertainties in the testing rates into the model that takes into account the disparate responses of the different states to the epidemic and also factors in the state of the public healthcare system. Our model allows us to generate qualitative projections of Covid-19 spread in India, and further allows us to investigate the effects of different proposed interventions. By building in heterogeneity at geographical and infrastructural levels and in local responses, our model aims to capture some of the complexity of epidemiological modeling appropriate to a diverse country such as India.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
