利用地点的力量：数据驱动的决策帮助，以改善经济移民的位置决策
Leveraging the Power of Place: A Data-Driven Decision Helper to Improve the Location Decisions of Economic Immigrants
摘要：
越来越多的国家已经制定了吸引移民的计划，这些移民可以为他们的经济做出贡献。研究表明，移民最初到达的地点在塑造他们的经济成功方面起着关键作用。然而，移民目前无法获得有助于他们确定最佳目的地的个性化信息。相反，他们往往依赖于可用性策略，这可能导致选择次优的着陆地点，降低收入，提高外迁率，并集中在最知名的地点。为了解决这个问题，并抵消认知偏见和有限信息的影响，我们提出了一个数据驱动的决策助手，利用行为洞察，管理数据和机器学习方法来告知移民的位置决策。决策助手提供个性化的位置建议，反映移民的偏好，以及数据驱动的预测，他们最大限度地提高他们的预期收入鉴于他们的个人资料的位置。我们说明了我们的方法的潜在影响，使用回测进行的行政数据，从加拿大的快速通道系统与他们的收入从税务记录检索最近的经济移民的登陆数据。各种情景的模拟表明，向即将到来的经济移民提供位置建议可以增加他们的初始收入，并导致他们从人口最多的着陆目的地温和转移。我们的方法可以在现有的制度结构内以最低的成本实施，并为政府提供了利用其行政数据改善经济移民成果的机会。
英文摘要：
A growing number of countries have established programs to attract immigrants who can contribute to their economy. Research suggests that an immigrant's initial arrival location plays a key role in shaping their economic success. Yet immigrants currently lack access to personalized information that would help them identify optimal destinations. Instead, they often rely on availability heuristics, which can lead to the selection of sub-optimal landing locations, lower earnings, elevated outmigration rates, and concentration in the most well-known locations. To address this issue and counteract the effects of cognitive biases and limited information, we propose a data-driven decision helper that draws on behavioral insights, administrative data, and machine learning methods to inform immigrants' location decisions. The decision helper provides personalized location recommendations that reflect immigrants' preferences as well as data-driven predictions of the locations where they maximize their expected earnings given their profile. We illustrate the potential impact of our approach using backtests conducted with administrative data that links landing data of recent economic immigrants from Canada's Express Entry system with their earnings retrieved from tax records. Simulations across various scenarios suggest that providing location recommendations to incoming economic immigrants can increase their initial earnings and lead to a mild shift away from the most populous landing destinations. Our approach can be implemented within existing institutional structures at minimal cost, and offers governments an opportunity to harness their administrative data to improve outcomes for economic immigrants.
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