考虑社会成本的COVID-19感染率最优控制
Optimal control of COVID-19 infection rate considering social costs
摘要:
COVID-19疫情已构成政策制定危机,减缓或结束疫情的努力与经济优先事项相冲突。本文通过疾病传播的理想化分区模型和社会经济成本的简化模型,对最优疾病控制策略进行了数学分析。两个局部最优控制最优控制策略被发现和分类为“抑制”和“缓解”的战略。我们分析这些策略如何改变时,我们将疫苗接种到模型中,并找到一个新的最佳的“延迟缓解”策略。
英文摘要:
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a policy making crisis where efforts to slow down or end the pandemic conflict with economic priorities. This paper provides mathematical analysis of optimal disease control policies with idealized compartmental models for disease propagation and simplistic models of social and economic costs. Two locally optimal control strategies are found and categorized as `suppression' and `mitigation' strategies. We analyze how these strategies change when we incorporate vaccination into the model and find a new optimal `delay-mitigation' strategy.
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