研究欧元区和罗马尼亚之间经济周期差异的驱动因素
Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania
摘要：
这项研究的目的是提供一个解释性的分析欧元区和罗马尼亚之间的经济周期的差异，分别其驱动程序，因为同步的产出差距是一个潜在的EMU加入的背景下最重要的课题之一。根据估计，与2002-2009年相比，产出缺口同步在2010-2017年这一分阶段进入下降通道。实证结果表明，经济周期偏离度与经济结构趋同、工资结构趋同和经济开放度三个因素呈负相关关系，但与其自回归项人均国内生产总值趋同均呈正相关关系。
英文摘要：
This research aims to provide an explanatory analyses of the business cycles divergence between Euro Area and Romania, respectively its drivers, since the synchronisation of output-gaps is one of the most important topic in the context of a potential EMU accession. According to the estimates, output-gaps synchronisation entered on a downward path in the subperiod 2010-2017, compared to 2002-2009. The paper demonstrates there is a negative relationship between business cycles divergence and three factors (economic structure convergence, wage structure convergence and economic openness), but also a positive relationship between it and its autoregressive term, respectively the GDP per capita convergence.
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