Prediction intervals are a machine- and human-interpretable way to represent predictive uncertainty in a regression analysis. In this paper, we present a method for generating prediction intervals along with point estimates from an ensemble of neural networks. We propose a multi-objective loss function fusing quality measures related to prediction intervals and point estimates, and a penalty function, which enforces semantic integrity of the results and stabilizes the training process of the neural networks. The ensembled prediction intervals are aggregated as a split normal mixture accounting for possible multimodality and asymmetricity of the posterior predictive distribution, and resulting in prediction intervals that capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that both our quality-driven loss function and our aggregation method contribute to well-calibrated prediction intervals and point estimates.
On Optimal Data Splitting for Split Conformal Prediction
Department of Statistics and Data Science, Washington University in St. Louis（华盛顿大学圣路易斯分校统计与数据科学系）；Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis（华盛顿大学圣路易斯分校电气与系统工程系）
Univ. Lille, CNRS, Inria, Centrale Lille, UMR 9189 - CRIStAL（里尔大学、法国国家科学研究中心、法国国家信息与自动化研究所、里尔中央理工学院、UMR 9189 - CRIStAL实验室）；Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica（荷兰数学与计算机科学研究中心）
This paper presents new deviation inequalities that are valid uniformly in time under adaptive sampling in a multi-armed bandit model. The deviations are measured using the Kullback-Leibler divergence in a given one-dimensional exponential family, and may take into account several arms at a time. They are obtained by constructing for each arm a mixture martingale based on a hierarchical prior, and by multiplying those martingales. Our deviation inequalities allow us to analyze stopping rules based on generalized likelihood ratios for a large class of sequential identification problems, and to …
Nonlinearity and Uncertainty Informed Moment-Matching Gaussian Mixture Splitting
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Utah State University（机械与航空航天工程系，犹他州立大学）；School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Purdue University（航空航天工程学院，普渡大学）
The Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (DPGMM) is often used to cluster data when the number of clusters is unknown. One main DPGMM inference paradigm relies on sampling. Here we consider a known state-of-art sampler (proposed by Chang and Fisher III (2013) and improved by Dinari et al. (2019)), analyze its failure modes, and show how to improve it, often drastically. Concretely, in that sampler, whenever a new cluster is formed it is augmented with two subclusters whose labels are initialized at random. Upon their evolution, the subclusters serve to propose a split of the parent cluster…
University of California, Irvine（加州大学欧文分校）；University of Algarve（阿尔加维大学）
Motivation: With the development of droplet based systems, massive single cell transcriptome data has become available, which enables analysis of cellular and molecular processes at single cell resolution and is instrumental to understanding many biological processes. While state-of-the-art clustering methods have been applied to the data, they face challenges in the following aspects: (1) the clustering quality still needs to be improved; (2) most models need prior knowledge on number of clusters, which is not always available; (3) there is a demand for faster computational speed. Results: We…
Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage assuming solely i.i.d. data. Although the literature has mostly focused on prediction intervals, more general regions can often better represent uncertainty. For instance, a bimodal target is better represented by the union of two intervals. Such prediction regions are obtained by CD-split , which combines the split method and a data-driven partition of the feature space which scales to high dimensions. CD-split however contains many tuning parameters, and their role is not clear. In this paper, we provide new insights on …
Advances in information technology have led to extremely large datasets that are often kept in different storage centers. Existing statistical methods must be adapted to overcome the resulting computational obstacles while retaining statistical validity and efficiency. Split-and-conquer approaches have been applied in many areas, including quantile processes, regression analysis, principal eigenspaces, and exponential families. We study split-and-conquer approaches for the distributed learning of finite Gaussian mixtures. We recommend a reduction strategy and develop an effective MM algorithm.…
It was recently shown that neural ordinary differential equation models cannot solve fundamental and seemingly straightforward tasks even with high-capacity vector field representations. This paper introduces two other fundamental tasks to the set that baseline methods cannot solve, and proposes mixtures of stochastic vector fields as a model class that is capable of solving these essential problems. Dynamic vector field selection is of critical importance for our model, and our approach is to propagate component uncertainty over the integration interval with a technique based on forward filte…
Bayesian mixture models are widely applied for unsupervised learning and exploratory data analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo based on Gibbs sampling and split-merge moves are widely used for inference in these models. However, both methods are restricted to limited types of transitions and suffer from torpid mixing and low accept rates even for problems of modest size. We propose a method that considers a broader range of transitions that are close to equilibrium by exploiting multiple chains in parallel and using the past states adaptively to inform the proposal distribution. The method signi…
Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage under no assumptions besides i.i.d. data. Besides average coverage, one might also desire to control conditional coverage, that is, coverage for every new testing point. However, without strong assumptions, conditional coverage is unachievable. Given this limitation, the literature has focused on methods with asymptotical conditional coverage. In order to obtain this property, these methods require strong conditions on the dependence between the target variable and the features. We introduce two conformal methods based on …
Large datasets make it possible to build predictive models that can capture heterogenous relationships between the response variable and features. The mixture of high-dimensional linear experts model posits that observations come from a mixture of high-dimensional linear regression models, where the mixture weights are themselves feature-dependent. In this paper, we show how to construct valid prediction sets for an $\ell_1$-penalized mixture of experts model in the high-dimensional setting. We make use of a debiasing procedure to account for the bias induced by the penalization and propose a …
Neural networks are among the most powerful nonlinear models used to address supervised learning problems. Similar to most machine learning algorithms, neural networks produce point predictions and do not provide any prediction interval which includes an unobserved response value with a specified probability. In this paper, we proposed the $k$-fold prediction interval method to construct prediction intervals for neural networks based on $k$-fold cross validation. Simulation studies and analysis of 10 real datasets are used to compare the finite-sample properties of the prediction intervals pro…
