Phylogenetics uses alignments of molecular sequence data to learn about evolutionary trees. Substitutions in sequences are modelled through a continuous-time Markov process, characterised by an instantaneous rate matrix, which standard models assume is time-reversible and stationary. These assumptions are biologically questionable and induce a likelihood function which is invariant to a tree's root position. This hampers inference because a tree's biological interpretation depends critically on where it is rooted. Relaxing both assumptions, we introduce a model whose likelihood can distinguish between rooted trees. The model is non-stationary, with step changes in the instantaneous rate matrix at each speciation event. Exploiting recent theoretical work, each rate matrix belongs to a non-reversible family of Lie Markov models. These models are closed under matrix multiplication, so our extension offers the conceptually appealing property that a tree and all its sub-trees could have arisen from the same family of non-stationary models.
We adopt a Bayesian approach, describe an MCMC algorithm for posterior inference and provide software. The biological insight that our model can provide is illustrated through an analysis in which non-reversible but stationary, and non-stationary but reversible models cannot identify a plausible root.
Phylogenetics uses alignments of molecular sequence data to learn about evolutionary trees relating species. Along branches, sequence evolution is modelled using a continuous-time Markov process characterised by an instantaneous rate matrix. Early models assumed the same rate matrix governed substitutions at all sites of the alignment, ignoring variation in evolutionary pressures. Substantial improvements in phylogenetic inference and model fit were achieved by augmenting these models with multiplicative random effects that describe the result of variation in selective constraints and allow si…
In compositional data, detecting which part of the whole delineates heterogeneity is important. The aim is to propose a procedure to quantify this term in the multivariate regression context without abandoning the data's natural restriction. A single probabilistic model with a hierarchical structure was built for multiple compositional data. An objective criterion based on skewness and kurtosis metrics provides support to characterize each component's performance as well as to assist in choosing one component as a reference avoiding model identifiability issues. The inference procedure was don…
Phylogenetic mixture models are statistical models of character evolution allowing for heterogeneity. Each of the classes in some unknown partition of the characters may evolve by different processes, or even along different trees. The fundamental question of whether parameters of such a model are identifiable is difficult to address, due to the complexity of the parameterization. We analyze mixture models on large trees, with many mixture components, showing that both numerical and tree parameters are indeed identifiable in these models when all trees are the same. We also explore the extent …
Phylogenetic mixture models, in which the sites in sequences undergo different substitution processes along the same or different trees, allow the description of heterogeneous evolutionary processes. As data sets consisting of longer sequences become available, it is important to understand such models, for both theoretical insights and use in statistical analyses. Some recent articles have highlighted disturbing "mimicking" behavior in which a distribution from a mixture model is identical to one arising on a different tree or trees. Other works have indicated such problems are unlikely to oc…
Rate variation among the sites of a molecular sequence is commonly found in applications of phylogenetic inference. Several approaches exist to account for this feature but they do not usually enable the investigator to pinpoint the sites that evolve under one or another rate of evolution in a straightforward manner. The focus is on Bayesian phylogenetic mixture models, augmented with allocation variables, as tools for site classification and quantification of classification uncertainty. The method does not rely on prior knowledge of site membership to classes or even the number of classes. Fu…
Markov models of character substitution on phylogenies form the foundation of phylogenetic inference frameworks. Early models made the simplifying assumption that the substitution process is homogeneous over time and across sites in the molecular sequence alignment. While standard practice adopts extensions that accommodate heterogeneity of substitution rates across sites, heterogeneity in the process over time in a site-specific manner remains frequently overlooked. This is problematic, as evolutionary processes that act at the molecular level are highly variable, subjecting different sites t…
Calculation of the log-likelihood stands as the computational bottleneck for many statistical phylogenetic algorithms. Even worse is its gradient evaluation, often used to target regions of high probability. Order ${\cal O}\hspace{-0.2em}\left( N \right)$-dimensional gradient calculations based on the standard pruning algorithm require ${\cal O}\hspace{-0.2em}\left( N^2 \right)$ operations where N is the number of sampled molecular sequences. With the advent of high-throughput sequencing, recent phylogenetic studies have analyzed hundreds to thousands of sequences, with an apparent trend towar…
An important task in microbiome studies is to test the existence of and give characterization to differences in the microbiome composition across groups of samples. Important challenges of this problem include the large within-group heterogeneities among samples and the existence of potential confounding variables that, when ignored, increase the chance of false discoveries and reduce the power for identifying true differences. We propose a probabilistic framework to overcome these issues by combining three ideas: (i) a phylogenetic tree-based decomposition of the cross-group comparison proble…
Background: Intra-tumour heterogeneity (ITH) is the result of ongoing evolutionary change within each cancer. The expansion of genetically distinct sub-clonal populations may explain the emergence of drug resistance and if so would have prognostic and predictive utility. However, methods for objectively quantifying ITH have been missing and are particularly difficult to establish in cancers where predominant copy number variation prevents accurate phylogenetic reconstruction owing to horizontal dependencies caused by long and cascading genomic rearrangements. Results: To address these challeng…
As researchers collect increasingly large molecular data sets to reconstruct the Tree of Life, the heterogeneity of signals in the genomes of diverse organisms poses challenges for traditional phylogenetic analysis. A class of phylogenetic methods known as "species tree methods" have been proposed to directly address one important source of gene tree heterogeneity, namely the incomplete lineage sorting or deep coalescence that occurs when evolving lineages radiate rapidly, resulting in a diversity of gene trees from a single underlying species tree. Although such methods are gaining in popular…
Motivation: Epigenetic heterogeneity within a tumour can play an important role in tumour evolution and the emergence of resistance to treatment. It is increasingly recognised that the study of DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns along the genome -- so-called `epialleles' -- offers greater insight into epigenetic dynamics than conventional analyses which examine DNAm marks individually. Results: We have developed a Bayesian model to infer which epialleles are present in multiple regions of the same tumour. We apply our method to reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) data from multiple…
The Rosids is one of the largest groups of flowering plants, with 140 families and ~70,000 species. Previous phylogenetic studies of the rosids have primarily utilized organelle genes that likely differ in evolutionary histories from nuclear genes. To better understand the evolutionary history of rosids, it is necessary to investigate their phylogenetic relationships using nuclear genes. Here, we employed large-scale phylogenomic datasets composed of nuclear genes, including 891 clusters of putative orthologous genes. Combined with comprehensive taxon sampling covering 63 species representing …
Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction from zero-inflated count-compositional pollen data: A case study of Lago Grande di Monticchio in southern Italy
Hamilton Institute and Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Maynooth University（梅努斯大学汉密尔顿研究所与数学统计系）；School of Mathematics and Statistics, University College Dublin（都柏林大学学院数学统计学院）；Department of Biosciences, Durham University（杜伦大学生物科学系）
Molecular phylogenetic and phylogeographic reconstructions generally assume time-homogeneous substitution processes. Motivated by computational convenience, this assumption sacrifices biological realism and offers little opportunity to uncover the temporal dynamics in evolutionary histories. Here, we extend and generalize an evolutionary approach that relaxes the time-homogeneous process assumption by allowing the specification of different infinitesimal substitution rate matrices across different time intervals, called epochs, along the evolutionary history. We focus on an epoch model impleme…
Inference of evolutionary trees and rates from biological sequences is commonly performed using continuous-time Markov models of character change. The Markov process evolves along an unknown tree while observations arise only from the tips of the tree. Rate heterogeneity is present in most real data sets and is accounted for by the use of flexible mixture models where each site is allowed its own rate. Very little has been rigorously established concerning the identifiability of the models currently in common use in data analysis, although non-identifiability was proven for a semi-parametric m…
Background: The reconstruction of the phylogenetic tree topology of four taxa is, still nowadays, one of the main challenges in phylogenetics. Its difficulties lie in considering not too restrictive evolutionary models, and correctly dealing with the long-branch attraction problem. The correct reconstruction of 4-taxon trees is crucial for making quartet-based methods work and being able to recover large phylogenies. Results: In this paper we consider an expectation-maximization method for maximizing the likelihood of (time nonhomogeneous) evolutionary Markov models on trees. We study its succ…
Variation in the evolutionary process across the sites of nucleotide sequence alignments is well established, and is an increasingly pervasive feature of datasets composed of gene regions sampled from multiple loci and/or different genomes. Inference of phylogeny from these data demands that we adequately model the underlying process heterogeneity; failure to do so can lead to biased estimates of phylogeny and other parameters. Traditionally, process heterogeneity has been accommodated by first assigning sites to data subsets based on relevant prior information (reflecting codon positions in p…
Homogeneity across lineages is a common assumption in phylogenetics according to which nucleotide substitution rates remain constant in time and do not depend on lineages. This is a simplifying hypothesis which is often adopted to make the process of sequence evolution more tractable. However, its validity has been explored and put into question in several papers. On the other hand, dealing successfully with the general case (heterogeneity across lineages) is one of the key features of phylogenetic reconstruction methods based on algebraic tools. The goal of this paper is twofold. First, we pr…
Studying the human microbiome has gained substantial interest in recent years, and a common task in the analysis of these data is to cluster microbiome compositions into subtypes. This subdivision of samples into subgroups serves as an intermediary step in achieving personalized diagnosis and treatment. In applying existing clustering methods to modern microbiome studies including the American Gut Project (AGP) data, we found that this seemingly standard task, however, is very challenging in the microbiome composition context due to several key features of such data. Standard distance-based cl…
Mixed-membership (MM) models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) have been applied to microbiome compositional data to identify latent subcommunities of microbial species. These subcommunities are informative for understanding the biological interplay of microbes and for predicting health outcomes. However, microbiome compositions typically display substantial cross-sample heterogeneities in subcommunity compositions -- that is, the variability in the proportions of microbes in shared subcommunities across samples -- which is not accounted for in prior analyses. As a result, LDA can prod…
High-throughput sequencing technology provides unprecedented opportunities to quantitatively explore human gut microbiome and its relation to diseases. Microbiome data are compositional, sparse, noisy, and heterogeneous, which pose serious challenges for statistical modeling. We propose an identifiable Bayesian multinomial matrix factorization model to infer overlapping clusters on both microbes and hosts. The proposed method represents the observed over-dispersed zero-inflated count matrix as Dirichlet-multinomial mixtures on which latent cluster structures are built hierarchically. Under the…
The goal of branch length estimation in phylogenetic inference is to estimate the divergence time between a set of sequences based on compositional differences between them. A number of software is currently available facilitating branch lengths estimation for homogeneous and stationary evolutionary models. Homogeneity of the evolutionary process imposes fixed rates of evolution throughout the tree. In complex data problems this assumption is likely to put the results of the analyses in question. In this work we propose an algorithm for parameter and branch lengths inference in the discrete-ti…
Because biological processes can make different loci have different evolutionary histories, species tree estimation requires multiple loci from across the genome. While many processes can result in discord between gene trees and species trees, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), modeled by the multi-species coalescent, is considered to be a dominant cause for gene tree heterogeneity. Coalescent-based methods have been developed to estimate species trees, many of which operate by combining estimated gene trees, and so are called summary methods. Because summary methods are generally fast, they ha…
One reason why classical phylogenetic reconstruction methods fail to correctly infer the underlying topology is because they assume oversimplified models. In this paper we propose a topology reconstruction method consistent with the most general Markov model of nucleotide substitution, which can also deal with data coming from mixtures on the same topology. It is based on an idea of Eriksson on using phylogenetic invariants and provides a system of weights that can be used as input of quartet-based methods. We study its performance on real data and on a wide range of simulated 4-taxon data (bo…
We address phylogenetic reconstruction when the data is generated from a mixture distribution. Such topics have gained considerable attention in the biological community with the clear evidence of heterogeneity of mutation rates. In our work, we consider data coming from a mixture of trees which share a common topology, but differ in their edge weights (i.e., branch lengths). We first show the pitfalls of popular methods, including maximum likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We then determine in which evolutionary models, reconstructing the tree topology, under a mixture distri…
