政府支出与多类别处理效应：修正的条件独立性假设
Government spending and multi-category treatment effects:The modified conditional independence assumption
摘要：
本文在潜在结果框架下，提出了一种基于多类别处理效应和逆概率加权的财政政策短期有效性评价方法。本研究对文献的主要贡献是提出了改进的条件独立性假设，以改善对财政政策的评估。使用这种方法，我分析了1992年至2019年政府支出对美国经济的影响。实证研究表明，大规模财政紧缩对经济增长率产生负效应，小规模和大规模财政扩张则实现正效应。然而，这些影响在传统的多元回归方法中并不显著。我的结论是，这种新方法显着改善了财政政策的评估。
英文摘要：
I devise a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the short run with multi-category treatment effects and inverse probability weighting based on the potential outcome framework. This study's main contribution to the literature is the proposed modified conditional independence assumption to improve the evaluation of fiscal policy. Using this approach, I analyze the effects of government spending on the US economy from 1992 to 2019. The empirical study indicates that large fiscal contraction generates a negative effect on the economic growth rate, and small and large fiscal expansions realize a positive effect. However, these effects are not significant in the traditional multiple regression approach. I conclude that this new approach significantly improves the evaluation of fiscal policy.
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