Bitcoin and its decentralized computing paradigm for digital currency trading are one of the most disruptive technology in the 21st century. This paper presents a novel approach to developing a Bitcoin transaction forecast model, DLForecast, by leveraging deep neural networks for learning Bitcoin transaction network representations. DLForecast makes three original contributions. First, we explore three interesting properties between Bitcoin transaction accounts: topological connectivity pattern of Bitcoin accounts, transaction amount pattern, and transaction dynamics. Second, we construct a time-decaying reachability graph and a time-decaying transaction pattern graph, aiming at capturing different types of spatial-temporal Bitcoin transaction patterns. Third, we employ node embedding on both graphs and develop a Bitcoin transaction forecasting system between user accounts based on historical transactions with built-in time-decaying factor. To maintain an effective transaction forecasting performance, we leverage the multiplicative model update (MMU) ensemble to combine prediction models built on different transaction features extracted from each corresponding Bitcoin transaction graph. Evaluated on real-world Bitcoin transaction data, we show that our spatial-temporal forecasting model is efficient with fast runtime and effective with forecasting accuracy over 60\% and improves the prediction performance by 50\% when compared to forecasting model built on the static graph baseline.
As the first decentralized peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrency system allowing people to trade with pseudonymous addresses, Bitcoin has become increasingly popular in recent years. However, the P2P and pseudonymous nature of Bitcoin make transactions on this platform very difficult to track, thus triggering the emergence of various illegal activities in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Particularly, mixing services in Bitcoin, originally designed to enhance transaction anonymity, have been widely employed for money laundry to complicate trailing illicit fund. In this paper, we focus on the detection of th…
Bitcoins have recently become an increasingly popular cryptocurrency through which users trade electronically and more anonymously than via traditional electronic transfers. Bitcoin's design keeps all transactions in a public ledger. The sender and receiver for each transaction are identified only by cryptographic public-key ids. This leads to a common misconception that it inherently provides anonymous use. While Bitcoin's presumed anonymity offers new avenues for commerce, several recent studies raise user-privacy concerns. We explore the level of anonymity in the Bitcoin system. Our approac…
The purpose of this work was to perform a network analysis on the rapidly growing bitcoin transaction network. Using a web-socket API, we collected data on all transactions occurring during a six hour window. Sender and receiver addresses as well as the amount of bitcoin exchanged were record. Graphs were generated, using R and Gephi, in which nodes represent addresses and edges represent the exchange of bitcoin. The six hour data set was subsetted into a one and two hour sampling snapshot of the network. We performed comparisons and analysis on all subsets of the data in an effort to determin…
Bitcoin, as one of the most popular cryptocurrency, is recently attracting much attention of investors. Bitcoin price prediction task is consequently a rising academic topic for providing valuable insights and suggestions. Existing bitcoin prediction works mostly base on trivial feature engineering, that manually designs features or factors from multiple areas, including Bticoin Blockchain information, finance and social media sentiments. The feature engineering not only requires much human effort, but the effectiveness of the intuitively designed features can not be guaranteed. In this paper,…
In this brief, we conduct a complex-network analysis of the Bitcoin transaction network. In particular, we design a new sampling method, namely random walk with flying-back (RWFB), to conduct effective data sampling. We then conduct a comprehensive analysis of the Bitcoin network in terms of the degree distribution, clustering coefficient, the shortest-path length, connected component, centrality, assortativity, and the rich-club coefficient. We obtain several important observations including the small-world phenomenon, multi-center status, preferential attachment, and non-rich-club effect of …
This work is organized as follows. In the first section we review the prior work and we have obtained our data. Next, we will look at address reuse in the Bitcoin network. We show that a great portion of users reuse their addresses which could enable us to cluster the addresses and attribute them to single users. Next, we will categorize the nodes based on their role in the network as a customer or seller. Finally, we do a study of nodes and network performance.
Cryptocurrencies gained lots of attention mainly because of the anonymous way of online payment, which they suggested. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have experienced severe deanonymization attacks. To address these attacks, Bitcoin contributors introduced services called mixers or tumblers. Mixing or laundry services aim to return anonymity back to the network. In this research, we tackle the problem of losing the footprint of money in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies networks caused by the usage of mixing services. We devise methods to track transactions and addresses …
In this paper we give an elementary analysis of economics of Bitcoin that combines the transaction demand by the consumers and the supply of hashrate by miners. We argue that the decreasing block reward will have no significant effect on the exchange rate (price) of Bitcoin and thus the network will be transitioning to a regime where transaction fees will play a bigger part of miners' revenue. We consider a simple model where consumers demand bitcoins for transactions, but not for hoarding bitcoins, and we analyze market equilibrium where the demand is matched with the hashrate supplied by min…
Money laundering is a global phenomenon with wide-reaching social and economic consequences. Cryptocurrencies are particularly susceptible due to the lack of control by authorities and their anonymity. Thus, it is important to develop new techniques to detect and prevent illicit cryptocurrency transactions. In our work, we propose new features based on the structure of the graph and past labels to boost the performance of machine learning methods to detect money laundering. Our method, GuiltyWalker, performs random walks on the bitcoin transaction graph and computes features based on the dista…
Data61-CSIRO（Data61-联邦科学与工业研究组织）；University of New South Wales（新南威尔士大学）；University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；National Institute of Informatics（国立信息学研究所）
Bitcoin is by far the most popular crypto-currency solution enabling peer-to-peer payments. Despite some studies highlighting the network does not provide full anonymity, it is still being heavily used for a wide variety of dubious financial activities such as money laundering, ponzi schemes, and ransom-ware payments. In this paper, we explore the landscape of potential money laundering activities occurring across the Bitcoin network. Using data collected over three years, we create transaction graphs and provide an in-depth analysis on various graph characteristics to differentiate money laun…
The problem of anomaly detection has been studied for a long time, and many Network Analysis techniques have been proposed as solutions. Although some results appear to be quite promising, no method is clearly to be superior to the rest. In this paper, we particularly consider anomaly detection in the Bitcoin transaction network. Our goal is to detect which users and transactions are the most suspicious; in this case, anomalous behavior is a proxy for suspicious behavior. To this end, we use the laws of power degree and densification and local outlier factor (LOF) method (which is proceeded by…
In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the …
Institut Polytechnique de Paris（巴黎理工学院）；Univ de Lyon（里昂大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）
Bitcoin is the first and highest valued cryptocurrency that stores transactions in a publicly distributed ledger called the blockchain. Understanding the activity and behavior of Bitcoin actors is a crucial research topic as they are pseudonymous in the transaction network. In this article, we propose a method based on taint analysis to extract taint flows --dynamic networks representing the sequence of Bitcoins transferred from an initial source to other actors until dissolution. Then, we apply graph embedding methods to characterize taint flows. We evaluate our embedding method with taint fl…
The possibility to analyze everyday monetary transactions is limited by the scarcity of available data, as this kind of information is usually considered highly sensitive. Present econophysics models are usually employed on presumed random networks of interacting agents, and only macroscopic properties (e.g. the resulting wealth distribution) are compared to real-world data. In this paper, we analyze BitCoin, which is a novel digital currency system, where the complete list of transactions is publicly available. Using this dataset, we reconstruct the network of transactions, and extract the ti…
We construct and study the Google matrix of Bitcoin transactions during the time period from the very beginning in 2009 till April 2013. The Bitcoin network has up to a few millions of bitcoin users and we present its main characteristics including the PageRank and CheiRank probability distributions, the spectrum of eigenvalues of Google matrix and related eigenvectors. We find that the spectrum has an unusual circle-type structure which we attribute to existing hidden communities of nodes linked between their members. We show that the Gini coefficient of the transactions for the whole period …
Bitcoin is built on a blockchain, an immutable decentralised ledger that allows entities (users) to exchange Bitcoins in a pseudonymous manner. Bitcoins are associated with alpha-numeric addresses and are transferred via transactions. Each transaction is composed of a set of input addresses (associated with unspent outputs received from previous transactions) and a set of output addresses (to which Bitcoins are transferred). Despite Bitcoin was designed with anonymity in mind, different heuristic approaches exist to detect which addresses in a specific transaction belong to the same entity. By…
Cryptocurrencies as a new way of transferring assets and securing financial transactions have gained popularity in recent years. Transactions in cryptocurrencies are publicly available, hence, statistical studies on different aspects of these currencies are possible. However, previous statistical analysis on cryptocurrencies transactions have been very limited and mostly devoted to Bitcoin, with no comprehensive comparison between these currencies. In this study, we intend to compare the transaction graph of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and Z-Cash, with respect to the dynamics of their t…
The functioning of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin relies on the open availability of the entire history of its transactions. This makes it a particularly interesting socio-economic system to analyse from the point of view of network science. Here we analyse the evolution of the network of Bitcoin transactions between users. We achieve this by using the complete transaction history from December 5th 2011 to December 23rd 2013. This period includes three bubbles experienced by the Bitcoin price. In particular, we focus on the global and local structural properties of the user network and their varia…
Bitcoin and Ethereum transactions present one of the largest real-world complex networks that are publicly available for study, including a detailed picture of their time evolution. As such, they have received a considerable amount of attention from the network science community, beside analysis from an economic or cryptography perspective. Among these studies, in an analysis on the early instance of the Bitcoin network, we have shown the clear presence of the preferential attachment, or "rich-get-richer" phenomenon. Now, we revisit this question, using a recent version of the Bitcoin network …
The Bitcoin protocol prevents the occurrence of double-spending (DS), i.e. the utilization of the same currency unit more than once. At the same time a DS attack, where more conflicting transactions are generated, might be performed to defraud a user, e.g. a merchant. Therefore, in this work, we propose a model for detecting the presence of conflicting transactions by means of an 'oracle' that polls a subset of nodes of the Bitcoin network. We assume that the latter has a complex structure. So, we investigate the relation between the topology of several complex networks and the optimal amount,…
A main focus in economics research is understanding the time series of prices of goods and assets. While statistical models using only the properties of the time series itself have been successful in many aspects, we expect to gain a better understanding of the phenomena involved if we can model the underlying system of interacting agents. In this article, we consider the history of Bitcoin, a novel digital currency system, for which the complete list of transactions is available for analysis. Using this dataset, we reconstruct the transaction network between users and analyze changes in the s…
