随机波动环境中休眠与种子库的分枝过程模型
A branching process model for dormancy and seed banks in randomly fluctuating environments
AI总结：
本文通过比较1型与2型分枝过程，研究随机波动环境中休眠种子库的演化优势，发现自发切换、响应式切换或组合策略在特定自然场景下可具有超临界选择优势，即使存在繁殖权衡也得以保持。
摘要：
本文旨在从概念和定量两方面增进对（微生物）种群在面对波动环境条件时维持由休眠个体组成的种子库所获得的演化收益的理解。为此，我们将“1型”Bienaymé-Galton-Watson分枝过程（描述仅由“活跃”个体组成的种群）的长期行为与一类“2型”分枝过程（描述由“活跃”和“休眠”个体组成的种群）的长期行为进行比较。所有过程都嵌入一个在“恶劣”和“健康”条件之间随机变化的环境中，该环境相应地影响种群的繁殖行为。对于2型分枝过程，我们考虑活跃状态与休眠状态之间若干不同的切换机制。我们还施加总体资源限制，纳入活跃后代与休眠后代可能不同的“生产成本”，由此引出不同种群之间“公平比较”的概念，并允许因维持休眠性状而产生繁殖权衡。我们的切换机制包括：从活跃状态到休眠状态以及反向的切换随机发生、与环境状态无关的情形（“自发切换”），也包括切换由环境触发的情形（“响应式切换”），以及组合策略。结果表明，存在相当自然的场景，其中任一切换策略都可以是超临界的，而其他策略以及完全没有种子库的情形则严格亚临界，即使在关于可用资源的“公平比较”下也是如此。在这种情况下，我们看到超临界策略具有明显的选择优势，即使存在（可能较小的）繁殖权衡时该优势仍然保持。[...]
英文摘要：
The goal of this article is to contribute towards the conceptual and quantitative understanding of the evolutionary benefits for (microbial) populations to maintain a seed bank (consisting of dormant individuals) when facing fluctuating environmental conditions. To this end, we compare the long term behaviour of `1-type' Bienaymé-Galton-Watson branching processes (describing populations consisting of `active' individuals only) with that of a class of `2-type' branching processes, describing populations consisting of `active' and `dormant' individuals. All processes are embedded in an environment changing randomly between `harsh' and `healthy' conditions, affecting the reproductive behaviour of the populations accordingly. For the 2-type branching processes, we consider several different switching regimes between active and dormant states. We also impose overall resource limitations which incorporate the potentially different `production costs' of active and dormant offspring, leading to the notion of `fair comparison' between different populations, and allow for a reproductive trade-off due to the maintenance of the dormancy trait. Our switching regimes include the case where switches from active to dormant states and vice versa happen randomly, irrespective of the state of the environment (`spontaneous switching'), but also the case where switches are triggered by the environment (`responsive switching'), as well as combined strategies. It turns out that there are rather natural scenarios under which either switching strategy can be super-critical, while the others, as well as complete absence of a seed bank, are strictly sub-critical, even under `fair comparison' wrt. available resources. In such a case, we see a clear selective advantage of the super-critical strategy, which is retained even under the presence of a (potentially small) reproductive trade-off. [...]
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