In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model in which the ambiguity set is defined as the set of distributions whose Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to an empirical distribution is bounded. Utilizing the fact that KL divergence is an exponential cone representable function, we obtain the robust counterpart of the KL divergence constrained DRO problem as a dual exponential cone constrained program under mild assumptions on the underlying optimization problem. The resulting conic reformulation of the original optimization problem can be directly solved by a commercial conic programming solver. We specialize our generic formulation to two classical optimization problems, namely, the Newsvendor Problem and the Uncapacitated Facility Location Problem. Our computational study in an out-of-sample analysis shows that the solutions obtained via the DRO approach yield significantly better performance in terms of the dispersion of the cost realizations while the central tendency deteriorates only slightly compared to the solutions obtained by stochastic programming.
The deepening penetration of renewable resources into power systems entails great difficulties that have not been surmounted satisfactorily. An issue that merits special attention is the short-term planning of power systems under net load uncertainty. To this end, we work out a distributionally robust unit commitment methodology that expressly assesses the uncertainty associated with net load. The principal strength of the proposed methodology lies in its ability to represent the probabilistic nature of net load without having to set forth its probability distribution. This strength is brought…
Adaptive robust optimization problems are usually solved approximately by restricting the adaptive decisions to simple parametric decision rules. However, the corresponding approximation error can be substantial. In this paper we show that two-stage robust and distributionally robust linear programs can often be reformulated exactly as conic programs that scale polynomially with the problem dimensions. Specifically, when the ambiguity set constitutes a 2-Wasserstein ball centered at a discrete distribution, then the distributionally robust linear program is equivalent to a copositive program (…
This paper proposes a second-order conic programming (SOCP) approach to solve distributionally robust two-stage stochastic linear programs over 1-Wasserstein balls. We start from the case with distribution uncertainty only in the objective function and exactly reformulate it as an SOCP problem. Then, we study the case with distribution uncertainty only in constraints, and show that such a robust program is generally NP-hard as it involves a norm maximization problem over a polyhedron. However, it is reduced to an SOCP problem if the extreme points of the polyhedron are given as a prior. This m…
This paper studies distributionally robust optimization (DRO) when the ambiguity set is given by moments for the distributions. The objective and constraints are given by polynomials in decision variables. We reformulate the DRO with equivalent moment conic constraints. Under some general assumptions, we prove the DRO is equivalent to a linear optimization problem with moment and psd polynomial cones. A Moment-SOS relaxation method is proposed to solve it. Its asymptotic and finite convergence are shown under certain assumptions. Numerical examples are presented to show how to solve DRO proble…
We study decision dependent distributionally robust optimization models, where the ambiguity sets of probability distributions can depend on the decision variables. These models arise in situations with endogenous uncertainty. The developed framework includes two-stage decision dependent distributionally robust stochastic programming as a special case. Decision dependent generalizations of five types of ambiguity sets are considered. These sets are based on bounds on moments, Wasserstein metric, $ϕ$-divergence and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. For the finite support case, we use linear, conic or La…
In this paper, we propose a risk-based data-driven approach to optimal power flow (DROPF) with dynamic line rating. The risk terms, including penalties for load shedding, wind generation curtailment and line overload, are embedded into the objective function. To hedge against the uncertainties on wind generation data and line rating data, we consider a distributionally robust approach. The ambiguity set is based on second-order moment and Wasserstein distance, which captures the correlations between wind generation outputs and line ratings, and is robust to data perturbation. We show that the …
To address the challenge of the renewable energy uncertainty, the ISO New England (ISO-NE) has proposed to apply do-not-exceed (DNE) limits, which represent the maximum nodal injection of renewable energy the grid can accommodate. Unfortunately, it appears challenging to compute DNE limits that simultaneously maintain the system flexibility and incorporate a large portion of the available renewable energy at the minimum cost. In addition, it is often challenging to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of the renewable energy. In this paper, we propose a two-stage distribution…
Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we utilize the right-hand si…
We introduce a new framework, Bayesian Distributionally Robust Optimization (Bayesian-DRO), for data-driven stochastic optimization where the underlying distribution is unknown. Bayesian-DRO contrasts with most of the existing DRO approaches in the use of Bayesian estimation of the unknown distribution. To make computation of Bayesian updating tractable, Bayesian-DRO first assumes the underlying distribution takes a parametric form with unknown parameter and then computes the posterior distribution of the parameter. To address the model uncertainty brought by the assumed parametric distributio…
We address high-dimensional zero-one random parameters in two-stage convex conic optimization problems. Such parameters typically represent failures of network elements and constitute rare, high-impact random events in several applications. Given a sparse training dataset of the parameters, we motivate and study a distributionally robust formulation of the problem using a Wasserstein ambiguity set centered at the empirical distribution. We present a simple, tractable, and conservative approximation of this problem that can be efficiently computed and iteratively improved. Our method relies on …
We consider a distributionally robust Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (DR-POMDP), where the distribution of the transition-observation probabilities is unknown at the beginning of each decision period, but their realizations can be inferred using side information at the end of each period after an action being taken. We build an ambiguity set of the joint distribution using bounded moments via conic constraints and seek an optimal policy to maximize the worst-case (minimum) reward for any distribution in the set. We show that the value function of DR-POMDP is piecewise linear conv…
This paper proposes a distributionally robust unit commitment approach for microgrids under net load and electricity market price uncertainty. The key thrust of the proposed approach is to leverage the Kullback-Leibler divergence to construct an ambiguity set of probability distributions and formulate an optimization problem that minimizes the expected costs brought about by the worst-case distribution in the ambiguity set. The proposed approach effectively exploits historical data and capitalizes on the k-means clustering algorithm, in conjunction with the soft dynamic time warping score, to …
The generalized problem of moments is a conic linear optimization problem over the convex cone of positive Borel measures with given support. It has a large variety of applications, including global optimization of polynomials and rational functions, options pricing in finance, constructing quadrature schemes for numerical integration, and distributionally robust optimization. A usual solution approach, due to J.B. Lasserre, is to approximate the convex cone of positive Borel measures by finite dimensional outer and inner conic approximations. We will review some results on these approximation…
Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) over Wasserstein ambiguity sets exhibit attractive out-of-sample performance and admit big-$M$-based mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations with conic constraints. However, the resulting formulations often suffer from scalability issues as sample size increases. To address this shortcoming, we derive stronger formulations that scale well with respect to the sample size. Our focus is on ambiguity sets under the so-called left-hand side (LHS) uncertainty, where the uncertain parameters affect the coefficients of the decision va…
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）；The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；VinAI Research（VinAI研究院）
Least squares estimators, when trained on a few target domain samples, may predict poorly. Supervised domain adaptation aims to improve the predictive accuracy by exploiting additional labeled training samples from a source distribution that is close to the target distribution. Given available data, we investigate novel strategies to synthesize a family of least squares estimator experts that are robust with regard to moment conditions. When these moment conditions are specified using Kullback-Leibler or Wasserstein-type divergences, we can find the robust estimators efficiently using convex o…
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）；The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；Imperial College Business School（帝国理工商学院）
The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood that identifies a probability measure which lies in the neighborhood of the nominal measure and that maximizes the probability of observing the given sample point. We show that when the neighborhood is constructed by the Kullback-Leibler divergence, by moment conditions or by the Wasserstein distance, then our \textit{optimistic likelihood} c…
Distributionally Robust Federated Learning with Outlier Resilience
Division of Decision and Control Systems, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院电气工程与计算机科学系决策与控制系统 division）；Department of Control Science and Engineering, College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Tongji University（同济大学电子信息工程学院控制科学与工程系）；Mechanical Engineering and Material Science, Duke University（达特茅斯大学机械工程与材料科学系）
Recent work has leveraged the popular distributionally robust optimization paradigm to combat overfitting in classical logistic regression. While the resulting classification scheme displays a promising performance in numerical experiments, it is inherently limited to numerical features. In this paper, we show that distributionally robust logistic regression with mixed (i.e., numerical and categorical) features, despite amounting to an optimization problem of exponential size, admits a polynomial-time solution scheme. We subsequently develop a practically efficient column-and-constraint approa…
The increasing share of renewables in the electricity generation mix comes along with an increasing uncertainty in power supply. In the recent years, distributionally robust optimization has gained significant interest due to its ability to make informed decisions under uncertainty, which are robust to misrepresentations of the distributional information (e.g., from probabilistic forecasts). This is achieved by introducing an ambiguity set that describes the potential deviations from an empirical distribution of all uncertain parameters. However, this set typically overlooks the inherent depen…
Generative Neural Networks for Sinkhorn Distributionally Robust Hypothesis Testing
School of Artificial Intelligence, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳）人工智能学院）；College of Business, City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学商学院）；School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳）数据科学学院）
We introduce the Conic Blackwell Algorithm$^+$ (CBA$^+$) regret minimizer, a new parameter- and scale-free regret minimizer for general convex sets. CBA$^+$ is based on Blackwell approachability and attains $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret. We show how to efficiently instantiate CBA$^+$ for many decision sets of interest, including the simplex, $\ell_{p}$ norm balls, and ellipsoidal confidence regions in the simplex. Based on CBA$^+$, we introduce SP-CBA$^+$, a new parameter-free algorithm for solving convex-concave saddle-point problems, which achieves a $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ ergodic rate of convergence. In ou…
Geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs), a result of space weather, pose a severe risk to electric grids. When GMDs occur, they can cause geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs), which saturate transformers, induce hot-spot heating, and increase reactive power losses in the transmission grid. Furthermore, uncertainty in the magnitude and orientation of the geo-electric field, and insufficient historical data make the problem of mitigating the effects of uncertain GMDs challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach that models uncertain GMDs and mitig…
City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；Tencent（腾讯）；JD Digits（京东数科）
This paper provides a non-robust interpretation of the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem by relating the distributional uncertainties to the chance probabilities. Our analysis allows a decision-maker to interpret the size of the ambiguity set, which is often lack of business meaning, through the chance parameters constraining the objective function. We first show that, for general $ϕ$-divergences, a DRO problem is asymptotically equivalent to a class of mean-deviation problems. These mean-deviation problems are not subject to uncertain distributions, and the ambiguity radius i…
