用半线性方法预测地面碰撞走廊
Use of the Semilinear Method to predict the Impact Corridor on Ground
摘要：
我们提出了一个适应的半线性算法的预测地面上的小行星撞击地球的影响走廊。该算法提供了一个有效的工具，能够可靠地预测在地面以上的固定高度的影响区域，5个数量级的计算比蒙特卡洛方法。在处理即将发生的撞击物时，效率至关重要，因为撞击物的特点是撞击概率高，撞击时间非常接近发现时间。2008 TC3的情况是一个显著的例子，但最近也有即将发生撞击的情况，2018 LA和2019 MO，该方法已成功使用。此外，其良好的性能使该工具也适用于分析撞击时间较远的物体在地面上的撞击区域，甚至是多年的数量级，正如对阿波菲斯第一批观测进行的测试所证实的那样，它有可能在发现25年后发生撞击。
英文摘要：
We propose an adaptation of the semilinear algorithm for the prediction of the impact corridor on ground of an Earth-impacting asteroid. The proposed algorithm provides an efficient tool, able to reliably predict the impact regions at fixed altitudes above ground with 5 orders of magnitudes less computations than Monte Carlo approaches. Efficiency is crucial when dealing with imminent impactors, which are characterized by high impact probabilities and impact times very close to the times of discovery. The case of 2008 TC3 is a remarkable example, but there are also recent cases of imminent impactors, 2018 LA and 2019 MO, for which the method has been successfully used. Moreover, its good performances make the tool suitable also for the analysis of the impact regions on ground of objects with a more distant impact time, even of the order of many years, as confirmed by the test performed with the first batch of observations of Apophis, giving the possibility of an impact 25 years after its discovery.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
