非裔美国人中COVID-19的不成比例发病率与动态隔离相关
Disproportionate incidence of COVID-19 in African Americans correlates with dynamic segregation
摘要:
社会经济差距往往在大规模灾难性事件的发生中发挥核心作用。持续的COVID-19大流行病最令人担忧的方面之一是,它对黑人和非洲裔美国人背景的影响不成比例,造成了意想不到的感染差距。有趣的是,对这些种族群体的异常影响似乎与其他风险因素几乎不相关,包括合并症,贫困,教育水平,获得医疗保健,居住隔离和对治疗的反应。对观察到的发病率差距的一个拟议解释是,来自非洲裔美国人背景的人更经常从事低收入服务工作,因此更容易通过面对面接触感染,但由于缺乏直接数据,迄今为止还不能在这个意义上得出强有力的结论。在这里,我们引入了动态隔离的概念,即由于流动性和通勤习惯,一个特定群体的人在内部聚集或暴露于其他群体的程度。通过分析美国120多个主要城市的人口普查和流动数据,我们发现非洲裔美国人社区的动态隔离与这些社区每周的COVID-19发病率和死亡率显著相关。结果证实,知道人们通勤的地方,而不是他们住在哪里,对疾病建模更有意义。
英文摘要:
Socio-economic disparities quite often have a central role in the unfolding of large-scale catastrophic events. One of the most concerning aspects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemics is that it disproportionately affects people from Black and African American backgrounds creating an unexpected infection gap. Interestingly, the abnormal impact on these ethnic groups seem to be almost uncorrelated with other risk factors, including co-morbidity, poverty, level of education, access to healthcare, residential segregation, and response to cures. A proposed explanation for the observed incidence gap is that people from African American backgrounds are more often employed in low-income service jobs, and are thus more exposed to infection through face-to-face contacts, but the lack of direct data has not allowed to draw strong conclusions in this sense so far. Here we introduce the concept of dynamic segregation, that is the extent to which a given group of people is internally clustered or exposed to other groups, as a result of mobility and commuting habits. By analysing census and mobility data on more than 120 major US cities, we found that the dynamic segregation of African American communities is significantly associated with the weekly excess COVID-19 incidence and mortality in those communities. The results confirm that knowing where people commute to, rather than where they live, is much more relevant for disease modelling.
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