A default assumption in many machine learning scenarios is that the training and test samples are drawn from the same probability distribution. However, such an assumption is often violated in the real world due to non-stationarity of the environment or bias in sample selection. In this work, we consider a prevalent setting called covariate shift, where the input distribution differs between the training and test stages while the conditional distribution of the output given the input remains unchanged. Most of the existing methods for covariate shift adaptation are two-step approaches, which first calculate the importance weights and then conduct importance-weighted empirical risk minimization. In this paper, we propose a novel one-step approach that jointly learns the predictive model and the associated weights in one optimization by minimizing an upper bound of the test risk. We theoretically analyze the proposed method and provide a generalization error bound. We also empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Univ. of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Delft Univ. of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；Univ. of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）
Current methods for covariate-shift adaptation use unlabelled data to compute importance weights or domain-invariant features, while the final model is trained on labelled data only. Here, we consider a particular case of covariate shift which allows us also to learn from unlabelled data, that is, combining adaptation with semi-supervised learning. Using ideas from causality, we argue that this requires learning with both causes, $X_C$, and effects, $X_E$, of a target variable, $Y$, and show how this setting leads to what we call a semi-generative model, $P(Y,X_E|X_C,θ)$. Our approach is robus…
University of São Paulo（圣保罗大学）；Advanced Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2)（高级人工智能研究所）；Experian DataLab LatAm（益百利拉丁美洲数据实验室）
In supervised learning, training and test datasets are often sampled from distinct distributions. Domain adaptation techniques are thus required. Covariate shift adaptation yields good generalization performance when domains differ only by the marginal distribution of features. Covariate shift adaptation is usually implemented using importance weighting, which may fail, according to common wisdom, due to small effective sample sizes (ESS). Previous research argues this scenario is more common in high-dimensional settings. However, how effective sample size, dimensionality, and model performanc…
Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)（巴斯克应用数学中心（BCAM））；IKERBASQUE-Basque Foundation for Science（IKERBASQUE-巴斯克科学基金会）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）
In real supervised learning scenarios, it is not uncommon that the training and test sample follow different probability distributions, thus rendering the necessity to correct the sampling bias. Focusing on a particular covariate shift problem, we derive high probability confidence bounds for the kernel mean matching (KMM) estimator, whose convergence rate turns out to depend on some regularity measure of the regression function and also on some capacity measure of the kernel. By comparing KMM with the natural plug-in estimator, we establish the superiority of the former hence provide concrete…
We consider the Domain Adaptation problem, also known as the covariate shift problem, where the distributions that generate the training and test data differ while retaining the same labeling function. This problem occurs across a large range of practical applications, and is related to the more general challenge of transfer learning. Most recent work on the topic focuses on optimization techniques that are specific to an algorithm or practical use case rather than a more general approach. The sparse literature attempting to provide general bounds seems to suggest that efficient learning even …
Computational Efficiency under Covariate Shift in Kernel Ridge Regression
Swiss Finance Institute (SFI) EPFL（瑞士金融研究所（SFI）EPFL）；MaLGa, DIBRIS University of Genova（MaLGa，热那亚大学DIBRIS分校）；DIMA University of Genova（热那亚大学DIMA分校）；IIT CBMM, MIT（IIT CBMM，麻省理工学院）
Most convergence guarantees for stochastic gradient descent with momentum (SGDm) rely on iid sampling. Yet, SGDm is often used outside this regime, in settings with temporally correlated input samples such as continual learning and reinforcement learning. Existing work has shown that SGDm with a decaying step-size can converge under Markovian temporal correlation. In this work, we show that SGDm under covariate shift with a fixed step-size can be unstable and diverge. In particular, we show SGDm under covariate shift is a parametric oscillator, and so can suffer from a phenomenon known as reso…
Bandits with covariates, a.k.a. contextual bandits, address situations where optimal actions (or arms) at a given time $t$, depend on a context $x_t$, e.g., a new patient's medical history, a consumer's past purchases. While it is understood that the distribution of contexts might change over time, e.g., due to seasonalities, or deployment to new environments, the bulk of studies concern the most adversarial such changes, resulting in regret bounds that are often worst-case in nature. Covariate-shift on the other hand has been considered in classification as a middle-ground formalism that can …
A typical assumption in supervised machine learning is that the train (source) and test (target) datasets follow completely the same distribution. This assumption is, however, often violated in uncertain real-world applications, which motivates the study of learning under covariate shift. In this setting, the naive use of adaptive hyperparameter optimization methods such as Bayesian optimization does not work as desired since it does not address the distributional shift among different datasets. In this work, we consider a novel hyperparameter optimization problem under the multi-source covari…
Adaptive deep nonparametric regression from dependent data under covariate shift
Université Jean Monnet, ICJ UMR5208, CNRS, Ecole Centrale de Lyon, INSA Lyon, Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1（里昂 Jean Monnet 大学，ICJ UMR5208，国家科学研究中心，里昂中央理工大学，里昂国家理工学校，里昂大学 Claude Bernard 1）
Under covariate shift, training (source) data and testing (target) data differ in input space distribution, but share the same conditional label distribution. This poses a challenging machine learning task. Robust Bias-Aware (RBA) prediction provides the conditional label distribution that is robust to the worstcase logarithmic loss for the target distribution while matching feature expectation constraints from the source distribution. However, employing RBA with insufficient feature constraints may result in high certainty predictions for much of the source data, while leaving too much uncert…
Microsoft Research New England（新英格兰微软研究院）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
We give an efficient algorithm for learning a binary function in a given class C of bounded VC dimension, with training data distributed according to P and test data according to Q, where P and Q may be arbitrary distributions over X. This is the generic form of what is called covariate shift, which is impossible in general as arbitrary P and Q may not even overlap. However, recently guarantees were given in a model called PQ-learning (Goldwasser et al., 2020) where the learner has: (a) access to unlabeled test examples from Q (in addition to labeled samples from P, i.e., semi-supervised learn…
A common assumption in semi-supervised learning is that the labeled, unlabeled, and test data are drawn from the same distribution. However, this assumption is not satisfied in many applications. In many scenarios, the data is collected sequentially (e.g., healthcare) and the distribution of the data may change over time often exhibiting so-called covariate shifts. In this paper, we propose an approach for semi-supervised learning algorithms that is capable of addressing this issue. Our framework also recovers some popular methods, including entropy minimization and pseudo-labeling. We provide…
Towards regularized learning from functional data with covariate shift
Institute for Machine Learning（机器学习研究所）；Johannes Kepler University（约翰·凯撒大学）；Medical University of Innsbruck（因斯布鲁克医学院）；Austrian Academy of Sciences（奥地利科学院）；Indian Institute of Technology Delhi（德里印度理工学院）
Considering two random variables with different laws to which we only have access through finite size iid samples, we address how to reweight the first sample so that its empirical distribution converges towards the true law of the second sample as the size of both samples goes to infinity. We study an optimal reweighting that minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the empirical measures of the two samples, and leads to an expression of the weights in terms of Nearest Neighbors. The consistency and some asymptotic convergence rates in terms of expected Wasserstein distance are derived, and…
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；Quzhou University（衢州学院）
The most recent multi-source covariate shift algorithm is an efficient hyperparameter optimization algorithm for missing target output. In this paper, we extend this algorithm to the framework of federated learning. For data islands in federated learning and covariate shift adaptation, we propose the federated domain adaptation estimate of the target risk which is asymptotically unbiased with a desirable asymptotic variance property. We construct a weighted model for the target task and propose the federated covariate shift adaptation algorithm which works preferably in our setting. The effica…
In this paper we formally analyse the use of sparse filtering algorithms to perform covariate shift adaptation. We provide a theoretical analysis of sparse filtering by evaluating the conditions required to perform covariate shift adaptation. We prove that sparse filtering can perform adaptation only if the conditional distribution of the labels has a structure explained by a cosine metric. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new algorithm, named periodic sparse filtering, and carry out the same theoretical analysis regarding covariate shift adaptation. We show that periodic sparse filte…
Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of covariate shift--i.e., where the real-world data distribution may differ from the training distribution. As a consequence, existing algorithms can overestimate certainty, possibly yielding a false sense of confidence in the predictive model. We propose an algorithm for calibrating predictions that accounts for the possibility of covariate shift, given labele…
Unsupervised Domain Adaptation aims to learn a model on a source domain with labeled data in order to perform well on unlabeled data of a target domain. Current approaches focus on learning \textit{Domain Invariant Representations}. It relies on the assumption that such representations are well-suited for learning the supervised task in the target domain. We rather believe that a better and minimal assumption for performing Domain Adaptation is the \textit{Hidden Covariate Shift} hypothesis. Such approach consists in learning a representation of the data such that the label distribution condit…
This paper investigates when the importance weighting (IW) correction is needed to address covariate shift, a common situation in supervised learning where the input distributions of training and test data differ. Classic results show that the IW correction is needed when the model is parametric and misspecified. In contrast, recent results indicate that the IW correction may not be necessary when the model is nonparametric and well-specified. We examine the missing case in the literature where the model is nonparametric and misspecified, and show that the IW correction is needed for obtaining…
Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to remove the bias between training and testing distributions using importance weighting often provide poor performance guarantees in theory and unreliable predictions with high variance in practice. Recently developed methods that construct a predictor that is inherently robust to the difficulties of learning under covariate shift are restricted to minimizing l…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
A significant obstacle in the development of robust machine learning models is covariate shift, a form of distribution shift that occurs when the input distributions of the training and test sets differ while the conditional label distributions remain the same. Despite the prevalence of covariate shift in real-world applications, a theoretical understanding in the context of modern machine learning has remained lacking. In this work, we examine the exact high-dimensional asymptotics of random feature regression under covariate shift and present a precise characterization of the limiting test e…
We propose a novel calibration method for computer simulators, dealing with the problem of covariate shift. Covariate shift is the situation where input distributions for training and test are different, and ubiquitous in applications of simulations. Our approach is based on Bayesian inference with kernel mean embedding of distributions, and on the use of an importance-weighted reproducing kernel for covariate shift adaptation. We provide a theoretical analysis for the proposed method, including a novel theoretical result for conditional mean embedding, as well as empirical investigations sugg…
Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity approximate inference via full-batch Hamiltonian Monte Carlo achieve poor generalization under covariate shift, even underperforming classical estimation. We explain this surprising result, showing how a Bayesian model average can in fact be problematic under covariate shift, particularly in cases where linear dependencies in the input features cause a lack of posteri…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
Existing domain adaptation (DA) usually assumes the domain shift comes from either the covariates or the labels. However, in real-world applications, samples selected from different domains could have biases in both the covariates and the labels. In this paper, we propose a new assumption, Factorizable Joint Shift (FJS), to handle the co-existence of sampling bias in covariates and labels. Although allowing for the shift from both sides, FJS assumes the independence of the bias between the two factors. We provide theoretical and empirical understandings about when FJS degenerates to prior assu…
An important challenge facing modern machine learning is how to rigorously quantify the uncertainty of model predictions. Conveying uncertainty is especially important when there are changes to the underlying data distribution that might invalidate the predictive model. Yet, most existing uncertainty quantification algorithms break down in the presence of such shifts. We propose a novel approach that addresses this challenge by constructing \emph{probably approximately correct (PAC)} prediction sets in the presence of covariate shift. Our approach focuses on the setting where there is a covari…
We introduce a new normalization technique that exhibits the fast convergence properties of batch normalization using a transformation of layer weights instead of layer outputs. The proposed technique keeps the contribution of positive and negative weights to the layer output balanced. We validate our method on a set of standard benchmarks including CIFAR-10/100, SVHN and ILSVRC 2012 ImageNet.
A probabilistic model is said to be calibrated if its predicted probabilities match the corresponding empirical frequencies. Calibration is important for uncertainty quantification and decision making in safety-critical applications. While calibration of classifiers has been widely studied, we find that calibration is brittle and can be easily lost under minimal covariate shifts. Existing techniques, including domain adaptation ones, primarily focus on prediction accuracy and do not guarantee calibration neither in theory nor in practice. In this work, we formally introduce the problem of cali…
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) promise improved generalization under covariate shift by providing principled probabilistic representations of epistemic uncertainty. However, weight-based BNNs often struggle with high computational complexity of large-scale architectures and datasets. Node-based BNNs have recently been introduced as scalable alternatives, which induce epistemic uncertainty by multiplying each hidden node with latent random variables, while learning a point-estimate of the weights. In this paper, we interpret these latent noise variables as implicit representations of simple an…
